Second ('Third') Trump Presidency Thread

Cant believe Yefrey Archaga would do such a thing



I agree for the most part but there needs to be no doubt whatsoever about guilt. People have been convicted of murder because a witness thought she saw him somewhere he had denied being. Wasnt even the murder scene but because jurors believed he lied he was convicted. Later thrown out when his lawyers managed to find proof the witness was wrong. I have seen a man put to death because there was a flash fire(christmas decorations) that killed his 2 young girls and the burn marks kjnda looked like a pentagram and he listened to heavy metal. Years later we find out arson investigators were just making shit up. And no ones respinsible for his murder. So if we go this route there needs to be equal punishment for murdering an innocent person. If no ones willing to take that risk then the evidence isnt good enough to execute.


I suggest taking some inspirations from Russia. Put a prison in Alaska where escape is a death sentence. They get a cell with a bed and standing room only. They must stand in their 1 spot 16 hours a day. Its far worse than death.
 
I'm sure you would. You'd probably assume that would change the narrative.

You'd be wrong, though

Poor blacks commit crimes at at least 3x the rate of whites.Wealthy blacks commit crime at 5x the rate of whites.Blacks commit more crimes at all income levels

GntFFRoXgAALH5s
You chart literally shows the economic side of things drastically reduces crime rates for both races. With Black people falling from 21% to 8% and white from 6 to 2 when they simply get to 40%

It's also worth noting this statistic is about incarceration rates, not crime rates.

But it doesn't account for the socio part of socio economics.
 
You chart literally shows the economic side of things drastically reduces crime rates for both races. With Black people falling from 21% to 8% and white from 6 to 2 when they simply get to 40%

It's also worth noting this statistic is about incarceration rates, not crime rates.

But it doesn't account for the socio part of socio economics.
Lol wut?

Obviously the richer you are, the less likely you are to commit crime. But rich black people STILL commit crime at a much higher rate than all white people. And across all socioeconomic brackets, the crime rate is substantially higher among black people than white

The data is the data. Dont get mad at the messenger
 
Lol wut?

Obviously the richer you are, the less likely you are to commit crime. But rich black people STILL commit crime at a much higher rate than all white people. And across all socioeconomic brackets, the crime rate is substantially higher among black people than white

The data is the data. Dont get mad at the messenger
No according to that they are convicted at that rate. Which is part of the socio part of socio economic.

I decided to dig into your source and found it. It's based off this study
Which talks about the socio part a lot more and specifically the issue with generational upwards mobility of black and natives.
Including

"Second, the black-white intergenerational gap is significantly smaller for boys who grow up in certainneighborhoods – those with low poverty rates, low levels of racial bias among whites, and high ratesof father presence among low-income blacks. Black boys who move to such areas at younger ageshave significantly better outcomes, demonstrating that racial disparities can be narrowed throughchanges in environment"
 
It’s a culture issue in Georgia.

It isn’t more complicated than that
Yes. Raj Chetty's research provides a lot of insight into why most of Georgia has very low rates of intergenerational mobility and such a stratified society. His work quantities things that are intuitively obvious to anyone who has spent time in Georgia.
 
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Yes. Raj Chetty's research provides a lot of insight into why most of Georgia has very low rates of intergenerational mobility and such a stratified society. His work quantities things that are intuitively obvious to anyone who has spent time in Georgia.

Yes it’s the inter generational mobility that makes them take pride in shooting people and raping and having tons of babies out of wedlock without raising them
 
what does Raj Chetty's work suggest about incarceration rates of black men and intergenerational mobility, in particular as it applies to Georgia

Raj Chetty’s research (primarily the 2018/2020 paper “Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective” with Hendren, Jones, and Porter, plus the related Opportunity Atlas project) shows that high incarceration rates among Black men are a stark racial disparity that is tightly linked to—but does not fully explain—lower intergenerational mobility, especially for Black boys.


National patterns on incarceration and mobility​


Using linked Census and tax data on millions of Americans (children born ~1978–1983, outcomes measured in their early 30s around 2010), Chetty et al. document:


  • Incarceration gaps are enormous and gender-specific. Among men raised in the lowest-income families (bottom 1% parental income), 21% of Black men were incarcerated on a single day in 2010, compared to just 6.4% of White men. The gap narrows with higher parental income but remains large even at the top: Black men from the top 1% parental income had incarceration rates (2.2%) similar to White men from the 34th percentile. Incarceration rates for Black and White women are very low across the income distribution.
  • These gaps are not the mechanical cause of Black-White income differences for men. Even excluding currently incarcerated individuals (who have near-zero measured income), large earnings/employment gaps persist between Black and White men. The processes generating high incarceration (e.g., neighborhood environment, discrimination, policing) are the same ones that limit labor-market success. Incarceration is therefore treated as one outcome shaped by the same underlying factors that drive mobility gaps.
  • Neighborhoods are central. Black boys raised in the same Census tract as White boys still have lower adult incomes in 99% of tracts (conditional on parental income). Outcomes improve for both Black and White boys in low-poverty areas, but Black-White gaps are often larger in such places. The small number of neighborhoods that produce the best outcomes for Black boys tend to combine low poverty, low levels of racial bias among White residents (measured via implicit-bias tests or Google-search animus), and higher rates of father presence among Black adults. Black boys in these tracts have higher adult incomes and lower incarceration.
  • Causal evidence from moves. Using the quasi-experimental approach from Chetty & Hendren (2018), Black boys who move (as children) to neighborhoods with better outcomes for other Black residents end up with higher incomes and lower incarceration rates as adults. The earlier the move, the larger the gain. Fewer than 5% of Black children grow up in these “high-opportunity” environments for Black boys.

In short, Chetty’s work frames high Black male incarceration as both a symptom of environments that produce low mobility and a factor that perpetuates the cycle (e.g., via reduced father presence at the community level, which correlates strongly with worse outcomes for the next generation of Black boys). Black women, by contrast, show much smaller gaps relative to White women and often outperform White men in college attendance conditional on parental income.


Application to Georgia​


Chetty’s core papers and the Opportunity Atlas do not single out Georgia with unique statistics, but the state (especially the Atlanta metro area) consistently appears as an example of the national patterns at work. Atlanta is repeatedly cited as one of the large metros with among the lowest upward-mobility rates for children—particularly Black children—despite strong overall job and wage growth in recent decades.


  • In the Opportunity Atlas tract-level maps, low-income Black men’s adult outcomes (earnings and incarceration) vary sharply across nearby neighborhoods in Atlanta, just as they do in Los Angeles or other cities. Certain Atlanta tracts (e.g., Druid Hills/North Druid Hills) are highlighted as relatively high-opportunity and affordable for low-income families, but most low-income Black children in the broader metro do not grow up in such places.
  • The same neighborhood correlates that hold nationally—low father presence, higher poverty, and environments linked to elevated incarceration—apply in Georgia. Atlanta’s combination of rapid economic growth with persistently low mobility for Black boys illustrates Chetty’s broader point that local labor-market conditions alone do not drive upward mobility; childhood environment and the factors that produce high Black male incarceration do.

Bottom line from Chetty’s data: Reducing the extraordinarily high incarceration rates of Black men would require (and would itself produce) improvements in the childhood environments that currently generate low intergenerational mobility for Black boys. In Georgia, as elsewhere, place-based interventions that increase exposure to low-poverty, low-bias, high-father-presence neighborhoods for Black children are among the most empirically supported levers for breaking the cycle. The Opportunity Atlas (opportunityatlas.org) lets users explore the
 
assess the following assertion: Yes it’s the inter generational mobility that makes them take pride in shooting people and raping and having tons of babies out of wedlock without raising them

The assertion is incorrect, oversimplified, and trades in harmful stereotypes rather than evidence. It wrongly treats low intergenerational mobility as the cause of pride in violence, rape, and irresponsible fatherhood, implying a direct, almost celebratory causal link. Data from Raj Chetty and broader research show correlations among these issues, but the relationships are complex, bidirectional, and rooted in shared environmental and structural factors—not low mobility "making" people proud of crime.


Empirical patterns (acknowledging disparities without moral essentialism)​


  • Family structure: Black nonmarital birth rates remain high (~69% of Black births in recent CDC data vs. ~27% for Whites). This contributes to higher rates of single-mother households (~63-66% of Black children in recent years). Chetty's work and related analyses show neighborhood-level father presence (even non-biological) strongly predicts better outcomes for Black boys: higher adult incomes, employment, and lower incarceration/suspension rates. This holds after controlling for parental income.
  • Crime and incarceration: Black Americans (≈13-14% of population) account for a disproportionate share of homicide offenders and victims (often 50%+ in FBI data). Black male incarceration rates are far higher, especially from low-income backgrounds (Chetty: 21% for bottom-percentile parental income Black men vs. much lower for Whites). Rape and violent crime show disparities, though most crime is intraracial.
  • Mobility link: Low-upward-mobility areas (including many in the Southeast/Georgia metros) overlap with higher crime and family instability. Chetty documents that poor neighborhoods produce worse outcomes for Black boys via mechanisms including father absence at the community level.

These are real group-average differences. However, they do not imply uniform "pride" or cultural celebration as a primary driver. Most individuals in any group do not commit serious violence; concentrated urban pockets and specific subcultures amplify visible problems.


Causality does not run as asserted​


Chetty et al. emphasize that neighborhood environments shape both mobility and these outcomes. Low-poverty tracts with higher Black father presence, lower White racial bias, and better schools produce better results for Black boys (higher earnings, lower incarceration). Moves to such areas causally improve outcomes (earlier moves = bigger gains). Father absence correlates with worse mobility for boys, but Chetty notes community norms/role models matter beyond one's own parents.


Research on mobility and crime often finds bidirectional or common-cause links:


  • High violence/crime in a community hinders mobility (disrupts schools, employment, safety).
  • Low opportunity/poor environments can increase strain leading to crime (classic strain theory).
  • A 2024 study found county mobility scores strongly predict lower violent crime/homicide, even controlling for poverty, inequality, etc. But this does not mean low mobility causes pride in crime—it suggests shared roots.

Single motherhood and father absence are not simply "chosen" due to low mobility. Historical factors (e.g., welfare policies, cultural shifts post-1960s, economic changes), incarceration removing men from communities, and norms around family formation play roles. Black-White mobility gaps persist even in the same neighborhoods and among married-parent families, showing it's not reducible to family structure alone.


Rape and "pride in shooting people" are extreme criminal behaviors, not representative norms explained by mobility statistics. Attributing them causally to intergenerational economics ignores individual agency, cultural elements in certain environments (e.g., "street code" in high-violence areas per Elijah Anderson), policing, lead exposure, peers, and genetics/behavioral traits that vary. Chetty treats incarceration partly as an outcome of the same childhood factors limiting earnings—not the reverse causal story in the assertion.


Bottom line​


Low mobility, high family instability, and elevated crime/incarceration rates among Black men are interconnected problems that reinforce each other in certain places (including parts of Georgia/Atlanta per Opportunity Atlas). Improving childhood environments—via reducing concentrated poverty, increasing stable two-parent norms where possible, lowering violence, and expanding opportunity—can break cycles, as Chetty's mover studies show. But framing it as low mobility causing pride in rape, murder, and deadbeat fatherhood is a stereotype that reverses and flattens the evidence. It ignores that many low-mobility individuals do not engage in these behaviors, and that cultural, policy, and behavioral factors matter alongside economics. Solutions require addressing root environmental drivers rather than simplistic blame.
 
any thoughts on this assertion: I know you like to touch yourself to research like this that basically says it’s not their fault


But it is.

No, the research—including Chetty's—does not say "it's not their fault." That's a strawman. Serious social science identifies multiple contributing factors to group patterns in crime, family breakdown, and low mobility: individual choices and agency, cultural norms, family structure, neighborhood effects, cognitive/behavioral traits with partial heritability, historical policy shifts, and concentrated disadvantage. Blaming everything on "the system" or absolving personal responsibility is as flawed as pretending environment plays zero role.


Personal responsibility is real and central​


People make decisions: whether to commit violent crime, have children out of wedlock without stable partnership, prioritize immediate gratification over delayed investment, or engage in "street code" behaviors that glorify retaliation and toughness. These choices have consequences, and data show they cluster in certain communities. High Black male incarceration and violent offending rates (e.g., ~50% of U.S. homicides despite ~13-14% population share, mostly intra-racial) are not illusions or artifacts of bias alone—victim surveys and clearance data align with arrest patterns for serious violence.


Twin and adoption studies consistently estimate antisocial/criminal behavior as ~40-60% heritable, with non-shared environment (peers, individual experiences) mattering more than shared family. Behavioral genetics doesn't excuse anyone; it suggests traits like impulsivity, low self-control, and aggression have biological underpinnings that vary and interact with environment. Ignoring this while fixating only on "poverty" or racism flattens reality.
 
Trying to understand things like high incarceration rates of black men and low intergenerational mobility is not in conflict with holding people responsible for their actions. The two can and often do coexist.
 
Where does his research come from?

Did he spend time in the community and talk to people? Did he go door to door?

Or did he sit somewhere and look at “data”
 
Where does his research come from?

Did he spend time in the community and talk to people? Did he go door to door?

Or did he sit somewhere and look at “data”
I dunno. You are renowned for your research methods. I'm sure Chetty could learn a thang or two from you and da wife.
 
Oh he sat down and looked at govt data.

We can write that shit off for sure

No boots on the ground surveys, no conversations, nothing.

Sorry- total BS you were sold
 
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