Iranian Control of the Strait of Hormuz

Let's not under estimate the effect the resumption Bibi corruption trials in this saga.

Yes, Iran has been militarily weakened, but regime change not in Iran but Israel could be the key.
My guess is the upcoming US regime change will be precipitate Israeli regime change.
Godfather 1 taught us, " war is bad for business"
 
Theres a deal to make if this is still going on when/if Dems win in 2028. We send them Trump and Hegseth in exchange for peace/reopening the strait. Some might call it the biggest most beautiful peace deal in history.
 
Richard Hanania summed it up well. Trump in the past couple weeks cycled through different positions on Hormuz.

"OPEN HORMUZ OR YOUR CIVILIZATION DIES."

"We don't need Hormuz, it's Europe's problem."

"Oh actually, we're probably going to have a deal with the Iranians to run it together."

"It's great Hormuz is not open, we get to sell more oil!"

"Actually, Hormuz is open! The media is lying again."
 
Iran has effectively proven they can do enough damage to scare shippers to hold the entire world’s economy hostage. Trump’s options are reengage in war and risk oil skyrocketing again or let Iran control and tax the strait which negates the military gains from the war (Iran gains a huge economic boon, the regime is still intact, they’ve demonstrated a deterrence that doesn’t require nukes or advanced missilry).

Woof
 
There are already some pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. There will a lot of additional such pipelines built over the next few years. There is no way Iran's neighbors will acquiesce in this.
 
nsacpi said:
There are already some pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. There will a lot of additional such pipelines built over the next few years. There is no way Iran's neighbors will acquiesce in this.
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Yes some

But alternatives are not immune to attacks and have been mostly economically non viable.

I’m sure the gulf countries will fast track exiting plans and the math has probably changed enough to green light new ones, but there will never be a Hormuz replacement.
 
sturg33 said:
so what would need to happen for another country to take control? like thethe calling it the strait of America. That would require what to be true?
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I’d assume any country with the right weaponry could extort tankers for shipping fees, but those countries don’t have the same incentives Iran has. I assume it’s in the best interest for everyone to keep the strait open which had also been true for Iran prior to being pushed to brinksmanship.

For the US to take control, I’d guess it would require a full scale military occupation of the Iranian coastline and the key islands surrounding the choke points. It doesn’t seem like these talks are going to go anywhere so I’d wager there’s a good chance we’ll find out
 
Trump will cave.

We're either going to get in to a dragged out war, or he's going to give more concessions that will make the Obama nuclear deal look like child's play, all so his ego can say he won whether he made the greatest deal of all time or he ends up getting in to a bloody war.
 
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Trump and Rubio being at the UFC fight while Vance is trying to salvage his 2028 run by negotiating with Iran is peak levels of Trump.

The rumors were Vance was the biggest name in the inner circle against going in to this Iran conflict.

Trump probably said fine you didn't support the actions you go try to save this shit yourself since you wanna run in 2028. Rubio positioning himself to be Trump's guy.
 
chop2chip said:
Iran has effectively proven they can do enough damage to scare shippers to hold the entire world’s economy hostage. Trump’s options are reengage in war and risk oil skyrocketing again or let Iran control and tax the strait which negates the military gains from the war (Iran gains a huge economic boon, the regime is still intact, they’ve demonstrated a deterrence that doesn’t require nukes or advanced missilry).

Woof
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Consider me your subwoofer
 
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