5/17: where's the offense? Red Sox rubber game

msstate7 said:
It's just frustrating that a crappy approach is the only reason they aren't among the elite at their position
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Since changing his stance on or about July 11th last year, Harris has a line of .299/.319/.515 (.834 OPS) in 443 PAs. He also has a .357 wOBA, .366 xwOBA, and a 129 wRC+. Combined with his defense, that is easily a 4-5 win pace if he plays 150+ games. Last year, only 5 CFers crossed the 4 fWAR mark. I would say that is pretty elite for his position. So far this year, he is looking exactly like the hitter he was the first 3 years of his career. And he's still only 25.

Ozzie has has a hard time staying healthy over the years. Last year, he was still recovering from the wrist injury for most of the season. But when he's been healthy, he also has been a 4ish fWAR player. That is also elite for a 2b.

The expectations for both guys seems to be unrealistic. I mean both players are technically on a path that should put them as borderline HOFers if they remain productive and healthy into their mid-late 30s. Ozzie has a chance to finish inside the top 10 in several stats for 2nd baseman all time. I wouldn't say that is likely given how much time he usually misses and how easily 2bs tend to fall off into their 30s, but it's possible. Harris, again, just turned 25 and even in the worst year of his career last year, managed to put up a 20/20 season.
 
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msstate7 said:
bWAR and fWAR both show (until this season) a clear decline for Harris every season. I'm still not sold on him continuing to hit like this with his pitch selection being poor, but I sure hope I'm wrong
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Many of his current rate stats match his career rate stats almost exactly. BB rate, K rate, BABIP, etc.

If remove last year from the data set, then his OPS, ISO, and wOBA are nearly exact matches to his current line as well.
 
Ozzie is due some major regression...
.275 BA, .263 xBA
.451 slg, .375 xSLG
.343 woba, .297 xwoba
Babip in line with career

Harris has actually been unlucky...
.293 BA, .310 xBA
.487 slg, .579 xSLG
.354 woba, .395 xwoba
Babip in line with career
 
msstate7 said:
Ozzie is due some major regression...
.275 BA, .263 xBA
.451 slg, .375 xSLG
.343 woba, .297 xwoba
Babip in line with career

Harris has actually been unlucky...
.293 BA, .310 xBA
.487 slg, .579 xSLG
.354 woba, .395 xwoba
Babip in line with career
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Ozzie's lines are always going to look a little funky due to his heavy splits. He's hitting RHP at career rates, but his numbers vs LHP have been suppressed a bit this year. It could be decline related, but more than likely those numbers will improve.
 
Ive been watching baseball for 35 years and yesterday saw two things Ive never seen before in a baseball game. (1) HAIL. (2) Catcher throwing the ball back and hitting the batter's bat (or anything for that matter). The slo-mo shot is hilarious as Baldwin kind of ducks and covers, like a delayed reaction.
 
Meh, he's within 1% of his 2021-2024 BB rate. Not that big of a deal. What we really need to see is the power return. He's been rocking a sub .200 ISO since breaking his wrist. That's not going to cut it. But 4 homers already in May is a good sign that maybe he's waking up in that department.
 
Carp said:
Meh, he's within 1% of his 2021-2024 BB rate. Not that big of a deal. What we really need to see is the power return. He's been rocking a sub .200 ISO since breaking his wrist. That's not going to cut it. But 4 homers already in May is a good sign that maybe he's waking up in that department.
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1% on BB rate isn’t nothing.
 
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