COMING MONDAY: Midseason Top 30 prospects list

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rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
With the minors leagues hitting their halfway mark/all-star break, we're going to break out our Midseason Top 30 Prospects list.

Even though the idiots who run the Braves CUT two of my preseason Top 30 at the end of spring training, we found plenty of talent available to rate. We'll tease you by saying that there are 11 players who were not on our preseason list, including two of our June draft picks.

Four on the preseason list who are still in the farm system have fallen away, and I ranked two players who I honestly think should not be included, but I defer to others who feel strongly the other way.

None of the short-season guys, though, except for the two draftees.

Will be posted SUNDAY NIGHT, right about time for the first pitch in the Atlanta-LA game.
 
Here's my Top 12 w/ Analysis

1. Jose Peraza - SS, He has been nothing short of outstanding so far this season. He puts the bat on the ball and utilizes his speed get on base. The only knock on him is that he doesn't walk much but he doesn't strikeout much either. His defense at 2B is well above average but with the way La Stella's playing the Braves can take their time developing Peraza.

2. Lucas Sims - RHP, He's not having a good season so far. His walks are still up and he's giving up lots of HR. His stuff is fine still sitting 92-94 touching 96 at times but he's not commanding any of his pitches especially his CB. Still very young and has plenty of upside though.

3. Christian Bethancourt - C, If he continues to hit like he's been hitting recently he'll be in the Majors sooner rather than later. It's hard to believe that he's still only 22 and won't be 23 until September. To put that into perspective look at the top college C in this past draft, he's only one year older than those guys crazy.

4. Braxton Davidson - OF, I didn't think the Braves would have a shot at drafting this young man. I absolutely love this guy's swing. His offensive potential is what I really like about this guy his hit/power tools are ridiculous. Hopefully he can play average LF(which I don't see why he can't).

5. Wes Parsons - RHP, Hard to believe this guy was an UDFA but he has been outstanding so far. At 6'5", 190 the guy hhas a very projectable frame. He sits 90-92 now and touched 95 several times he could possibly sit mid 90s in the near future as he fills out. His off speed stuff is actually better than I thought it would be. His slurve was actually a pretty decent pitch and his change was really good. He's really a guy to watch.

6. Jason Hursh - RHP, I don't get this guy. He has a very good FB that sits 92-95 and gets as high as 97 and a really good slider when he throws it for strikes but he pitches to contact and doesn't really try to fool hitter or keep them off balance. He and Graham are very similar imo.

7. J.R. Graham - RHP, See Hursh. They are very similar Graham's velocity may be a tick higher but he has the same pitch to contact mentality as Hursh though which is not a bad thing especially when you get a ton of GB and will have the best shortstop in the world behind you in the ML

8. Mauricio Cabrera - RHP, He could definitely be higher on this list if he were healthy but with the injury he's really hard to rank at this point but his stuff is the absolute best in the system. He sits mid - upper 90s and touches 100 and his Slurve is not a bad pitch but his CU is a potential plus pitch if he can consistently throw it for strikes.

9. Garrett Fulenchek - RHP, A sinker ball machine that sit 90-94 with potential for more. His off speed stuff needs work but when you have one plus pitch to work off that's a huge start.

10. Kyle Kubitza - 3B, This guy is just a good ballplayer. If he could cut down on his strikeouts he'd be ranked higher and possibly already be in the ML. He walks at a very good clip and play above average defense at 3B. So he could possibly be a September call up candidate.

11. Victor Reyes - OF, He started out extremely hot and now he the coldest guy in the system at the plate. I honestly think the guy is hurt but he's playing through it cause when I saw him in Rome earlier he was locked in and stinging everything. He still has a high upside imo.

12. Victor Caratini - C/3B - Has a very good approach at the plate and a nice level swing from both sides very Victor Martinez like. Behind the plate he decent but I don't think he sticks there. Very solid prospect though.
 
Love the minor league content on this site.

Between Rico/Jay/50/Nscapi and many others there is just quality reading material on the young kids. Thank you all for your efforts!
 
Very good list Jay. My main quibble is I think Victor Reyes should be higher. I'd put him around #5.

We have to wait and see, but I think some of the young international players making their stateside debut will force their way onto a lot of these lists by the end of the summer. I'm especially looking forward to seeing what we've got in Falcon, Albies and Josephina.
 
Other than Peraza nobody really took a big step forward this year IMO and Sims took a slight step backwards.
 
We really need Davidson to hit as a prospect. Absolutely love Pereza's potential and his teammate Wren's boy has a chance as well. He would probably be better than our current options(half kidding, half not).
 
thethe said:
Other than Peraza nobody really took a big step forward this year IMO and Sims took a slight step backwards.
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Peraza has taken the biggest step forward. But of the guys already mentioned, I'd say Parsons and Kubitza have also taken significant step forwards. And some of the guys not mentioned who are a bit lower on a top 20 or top 30 list also have advanced their prospect status quite a bit. I'm thinking here especially of Elmer Reyes and Williams Perez. The fact that they are doing this at the AA level is expecially significant. This is the level where a lot of prospects get revealed as suspects. Success at AA really increases a prospects chances for a major league career of one sort or another.

Another player who has taken a significant step forward without getting much attention is Tyler Tewell, our catcher in Lynchburg.
 
thethe said:
Love the minor league content on this site.

Between Rico/Jay/50/Nscapi and many others there is just quality reading material on the young kids. Thank you all for your efforts!
Click to expand...

You are entirely welcome. Awaiting rico's list.

Jay has a decent list, but when you have two guys on it who have yet to swing a bat/throw a pitch professionally, I think it speaks to the lack of top drawer talent in the system right now. I always hesitate to grade guys before they hit AA, but I am pretty comfortable with Peraza's likely projection. But in AA and above, we really only have one position player I would project as a future starter (Bethancourt) and two pitchers (Hursh and Graham) who may assume a role in a future rotation. I like Sims and Parsons. Both are young for High A both in terms of age and experience, so there will likely be some growing pains.

I always have to remember we have graduated so many guys so fast over the past half decade that the system is bound to be light up top.

I do wish we had more pure hitters in the system. Curious to see if Meneses first half is a mirage. Victor Reyes will likely be a good hitter, but I do laugh that about a month ago in the midst of his hot streak, there were a few posters wondering why he wasn't in Lynchburg. Really interested in seeing the young international IFs in the Gulf Coast League. We have to get more athletic. Peraza should provide an injection of athletic ability, but it's nice to have a few toolsy guys who can also play baseball in the system.
 
It is also interesting to speculate how our top prospects fit in with our team's needs.

What we've seen so far from La Stella suggests he has a good chance of holding down second base for the next six years. This would necessitate a move for Peraza. I think he is most likely to be our center fielder or third baseman of the future.

Bethancourt obviously will be one of our catchers when he is ready. I don't see him beating out Gattis for the starting catcher role. But he will be a very good backup. Ditto for Caratini who also at this point projects more as a second-string catcher.

Victor Reyes is our best corner outfield prospect. It remains to be seen if we are able to sign Heyward and Justin Upton to long-term deals. If not, then a path opens up for Reyes. He's still very young so it remains to be seen if he is a major league caliber starter. To be that he will have to develop some power.

Kubitza projects as a very good bench bat, who can play the corner infield and outfield positions. That's a useful kind of player to have. His internal competition for that kind of role includes Terdoslavich and Salcedo.

Elmer Reyes projects as a Ramiro Pena-type utility infielder and may well be Pena's successor in that role in a couple years.

As for the pitching, my rule is that one out of two top prospects at the AA and AAA levels will pan out, and about one out of five at the lower levels will pan out.

That means looking at the higher levels, we have Hursh, Graham, Thomas, Martin, Schlosser, Northcraft and Williams Perez who have potential to contribute at the major league level. I would guess one out that group will be a useful starter and one a useful reliever at the major league level.

At the lower levels we have Simms, Cabrera, Parsons, Falcon, Fulenchek. I wouldn't assume that more than one of them makes it. If we are lucky two.

We also have a group of interesting relievers in AA and AAA: Juan Jaime, Vasquez, Hoyt, Harper, Buchter, Shreve. I think one or two of those will improve enough to have useful major league careers.

So in terms of our pitching prospects, I think the current group in the minors will yield 2 or 3 major league starters and a similar number of useful bullpen arms. If I had to guess, I'd say Sims, Parsons and Hursh are the ones most likely to make it as starters. For the pen I would guess Graham, Thomas and Cabrera.

Of course the Braves over the years have shown a willingness to trade prospects to fill in major league needs. We could potentially spare one or two of Bethancourt/Caratini/Tewell. We also have a bit of a surplus in terms of guys in AA and AAA who project as fifth starter types at the major league level. Teams who need some pitching depth might attach a higher valuation to those guys. I'm thinking especially of Martin, Schlosser, Williams Perez, Northcraft. I would be surprised if we didn't deal one of those guys at the trade deadline or off-season.
 
50PoundHead said:
Jay has a decent list, but when you have two guys on it who have yet to swing a bat/throw a pitch professionally, I think it speaks to the lack of top drawer talent in the system right now.
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I guess at this point in time (when we haven't had a chance to see them perform in a professional setting) the question is whether it is reasonable to presume our top 2 picks in the draft have a good chance of becoming part of our Top 10 almost immediately. The last two drafts have yielded Hursh & Caratini, and Sims & Wood. Of course we had some busts in earlier drafts. But I would be more than satisfied if our top 2 picks this year were of similar caliber to our top 2 from our last couple drafts.
 
nsacpi said:
It is also interesting to speculate how our top prospects fit in with our team's needs.

What we've seen so far from La Stella suggests he has a good chance of holding down second base for the next six years. This would necessitate a move for Peraza. I think he is most likely to be our center fielder or third baseman of the future.

Bethancourt obviously will be one of our catchers when he is ready. I don't see him beating out Gattis for the starting catcher role. But he will be a very good backup. Ditto for Caratini who also at this point projects more as a second-string catcher.

Victor Reyes is our best corner outfield prospect. It remains to be seen if we are able to sign Heyward and Justin Upton to long-term deals. If not, then a path opens up for Reyes. He's still very young so it remains to be seen if he is a major league caliber starter. To be that he will have to develop some power.

Kubitza projects as a very good bench bat, who can play the corner infield and outfield positions. That's a useful kind of player to have. His internal competition for that kind of role includes Terdoslavich and Salcedo.

Elmer Reyes projects as a Ramiro Pena-type utility infielder and may well be Pena's successor in that role in a couple years.

As for the pitching, my rule is that one out of two top prospects at the AA and AAA levels will pan out, and about one out of five at the lower levels will pan out.

That means looking at the higher levels, we have Hursh, Graham, Thomas, Martin, Schlosser, Northcraft and Williams Perez who have potential to contribute at the major league level. I would guess one out that group will be a useful starter and one a useful reliever at the major league level.

At the lower levels we have Simms, Cabrera, Parsons, Falcon, Fulenchek. I wouldn't assume that more than one of them makes it. If we are lucky two.

We also have a group of interesting relievers in AA and AAA: Juan Jaime, Vasquez, Hoyt, Harper, Buchter, Shreve. I think one or two of those will improve enough to have useful major league careers.

So in terms of our pitching prospects, I think the current group in the minors will yield 2 or 3 major league starters and a similar number of useful bullpen arms. If I had to guess, I'd say Sims, Parsons and Hursh are the ones most likely to make it as starters. For the pen I would guess Graham, Thomas and Cabrera.

Of course the Braves over the years have shown a willingness to trade prospects to fill in major league needs. We could potentially spare one or two of Bethancourt/Caratini/Tewell. We also have a bit of a surplus in terms of guys in AA and AAA who project as fifth starter types at the major league level. Teams who need some pitching depth might attach a higher valuation to those guys. I'm thinking especially of Martin, Schlosser, Williams Perez, Northcraft. I would be surprised if we didn't deal one of those guys at the trade deadline or off-season.
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Very solid analysis in both replies.

I like La Stella and I think he's a great complement to the current line-up given his skill set. The problem is his value as a complementary player goes down a bit if the core guys (Heyward, Freeman, Upton the Younger) don't perform. I think he sticks in the bigs for at least a few years, but he's had all of 55 major league ABs, so we have to wait and see a bit. I do think his walk rate will hold up because his K-rate has been and is now low. I wonder if Kubitza's walk rate will hold because his K-rate is so high, but I've never actually seen him play over an extended period of time, so I have nothing to go on but two-dimensional stats.

I like the top of our draft this year. Looks to have two healthy ceiling high schoolers and a nice set of arms. Add that to the international signings from last year that are starting out in the GCL this year and we may get the injection of offensive talent the system needs.
 
What I would like to see from our farm system near-term is the emergence of guys who can push out our weak links, which in our starting lineup are CJ and BJ. That way we don't have to spend (in one form or another) to upgrade those positions. I feel confident that Peraza can take over one of those spots, but we don't have another guy in the system who projects with a high level of confidence to take over the other spot.

The other thing you always need is a regular flow of pitching. And here we are in pretty good shape. The one air pocket in the system when it comes to pitching is Rome. This mainly reflects the fact that all the college arms we drafted last year (except for Hursh) have not really panned out.
 
thethe said:
Love the minor league content on this site.

Between Rico/Jay/50/Nscapi and many others there is just quality reading material on the young kids. Thank you all for your efforts!
Click to expand...

It's my pleasure! I lover watching the talent of the future and telling my opinion of what I see. Thank you guys for taking the time to read my terrible writing lol.
 
50PoundHead said:
You are entirely welcome. Awaiting rico's list.

Jay has a decent list, but when you have two guys on it who have yet to swing a bat/throw a pitch professionally, I think it speaks to the lack of top drawer talent in the system right now. I always hesitate to grade guys before they hit AA, but I am pretty comfortable with Peraza's likely projection. But in AA and above, we really only have one position player I would project as a future starter (Bethancourt) and two pitchers (Hursh and Graham) who may assume a role in a future rotation. I like Sims and Parsons. Both are young for High A both in terms of age and experience, so there will likely be some growing pains.

I always have to remember we have graduated so many guys so fast over the past half decade that the system is bound to be light up top.

I do wish we had more pure hitters in the system. Curious to see if Meneses first half is a mirage. Victor Reyes will likely be a good hitter, but I do laugh that about a month ago in the midst of his hot streak, there were a few posters wondering why he wasn't in Lynchburg. Really interested in seeing the young international IFs in the Gulf Coast League. We have to get more athletic. Peraza should provide an injection of athletic ability, but it's nice to have a few toolsy guys who can also play baseball in the system.
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I look at several different things when it comes to ranking players: stuff/talent tops the list, age vs league and talent of the league. That's why Peraza is my #1 prospect.

There are several interesting IFA guys in the DSL, GCL and Danville that I can't wait to see like Nelson Leon, Felix Falcon, Luis Barrios, Yeralf Torres, Ozhaino Albies, Kevin Josephina and Kelvin Estevez.

Also there are several returning guys that should take that step forward this season like Fernelys Sanchez, who's 2 full years removed from his leg injury, Tanner Murphy, Alec Grosser, Carlos Salazar( yes I know he was lit up in Rome but this guy has great stuff but he was rushed), and Dylan Manwaring.

I really expect a couple of those guys to take a big step forward.
 
Thank you for building the anticipation for my list. I will say now that I fail to see what others are getting out of Kubitza. He is faster than I expected, but he's still not that athletic around third base and he has not been a clutch hitter these last two seasons -- check his RBI totals if you doubt it. I would move Elmer Reyes to third base right now and consider him closer than Kubitza or Salcedo to being ready for the majors.
 
I wonder how many much Graham's and Hursh's k rate would go up if they were in the pen. A couple mph can make a fastball generatr a lot more swings and misses. If they combine a low BB% with a good ground ball rate and strikeout around 7 per 9 that could be a very dominate reliever.

Also the farm system is going to start going back up the rankings. We have a good mixture of hitting/pitching for the first time in a long time. Peraza/Sims/Davidson/Hursh/Graham/Bethancourt is a damn fine top 6 and all all but Davidson could be in the majors next year and he could move quickly for a high school prospect.
 
We'll move up also because the guys we're graduating this year-Hale, Thomas, La Stella, Simmons-were not high profile prospects.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I wonder how many much Graham's and Hursh's k rate would go up if they were in the pen. A couple mph can make a fastball generatr a lot more swings and misses. If they combine a low BB% with a good ground ball rate and strikeout around 7 per 9 that could be a very dominate reliever.

Also the farm system is going to start going back up the rankings. We have a good mixture of hitting/pitching for the first time in a long time. Peraza/Sims/Davidson/Hursh/Graham/Bethancourt is a damn fine top 6 and all all but Davidson could be in the majors next year and he could move quickly for a high school prospect.
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Not sure. Hursh throws a "heavy" fastball that results in a lot of ground outs. Don't know if moving him to the pen would have much of a difference because I don't know if his approach would change. I have never seen him pitch and I don't know if he has swing-and-miss stuff, but as long as guys keep pounding it into the ground, it's a plus.
 
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