OFFICIAL FALLING AXE PREDICTION THREAD

How can this organization justify keeping FG? It makes no sense at all he has led this team to two of the worse September records I can ever remember. He has no clue how to manage a bullpen or construct a lineup. He should be fired just for allowing BJ to bat at the top of the lineup for most of the season.

This is the most maddening thing I have ever heard. I have been a Braves fan since the mid 80s and have stuck with this team but if FG stays I think I'm done. I know me not watching won't affect anything however if this organization is so clueless as to think keeping FG is a good idea then I can't deal with the heart ache.

This organization can't see this team has quit on the manager how can you keep a manager that the team has quit on. The players see the ridiculous decisions this man makes almost every game and checked out long ago in my opinion. Why try and win when your manager does everything to make sure you lose.
 
KB21 said:
Am I missing something? Kansas City is currently in contention for a playoff spot for the first time since 1985. They have the 7th best farm system in all of baseball according to Baseball Prospectus, who also states that their farm system will get even better with all the talent they have at the lower levels. The team has been built largely through their farm system.

Why would we not want Dayton Moore if we could get him?
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because it took him for freaking ever to get them there. Once a decade everybody (almost) makes the playoffs.
 
rico43 said:
But there's no way you can call the Santana signing anything but a home run! It was only a one-year deal at market value for a guy who will be the Braves' winningest pitcher. No, the BJ signing will be the albatross around Wren's neck so long as he remains here.
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True but I think Santana was the back breaker because that was the deal that put us over budget, and knowing Liberty they only approved it when Wren said it was the difference between us making the playoffs or not. They held him to that.

Of course we're not in that position if it wasn't for his other bad deals, and the BJ deal may be the worst ever. At least Uggla gave a damn.
 
Wren needs to be fired and replaced by John Coppolella. No way you pass on that rising young talent and go with someone else and take a chance on losing him. That is a no-brainer. Gonzalez needs to be fired period. Not sure who should replace him, but just about anybody would be better.
 
rico43 said:
Breaking down the drafts the only way it matters: who has reached the majors?

2014: Incomplete. Closest: No. 5 Chris Diaz (before injury)

2013: None (No. 2 pick traded, No. 5 pick suspended) Closest: No. 1 Jason Hursh, No. 8 Kyle Wren.

2012: No. 2 Alex Wood, No. 22 Shae Simmons. NOTE: No. 4 suspended, No. 7 & 9 cut, No. 15 retired.

2011: No. 2 Nick Ahmad (ARIZ); No. 8 Tommy La Stella, No. 17 Gus Schlosser.

2010: No. 2b Andrelton Simmons, No. 5 Phil Gosselin, No. 6 Joey Terodoslavich, No. 11 Chasen Shreve, No. 23 Evan Gattis.

2009: No. 1 Mike Minors; No. 3 David Hale.

2008: No. 2b Zeke Spruill (ARIZ); No. 3 Craig Kimbrel, No. 7 Paul Clemens (HOU), No. 8 Brett Oberholtzer, No. 10 J.J. Hoover (CIN).

2007: No. 1 Jason Heyward; No. 2b Freddie Freeman; No. 3 Brandon Hicks (SF, OAK); No. 4 Cory Gearrin; No.33 Craig Kimbrel (DNS).

2006: No. 1.5 Cory Rasmus; No. 10 Kris Medlen.

2005: No. 1 Joey Devine; No. 2a Yunel Escobar; No. 3 Jordan Schafer; No. 22 Tommy Hanson; No. 33 Tyler Flowers (CHI A).

People, that's a pretty dang good track record despite two FUBAR drafts ('06 Cody Johnson, '08 Bret DuVal/Tyler Stovall 1-2).
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But Wood and A. Simmons are the only top-drawer guys since Roy Clark left. It's not just getting guys to the majors. It's getting top-tier guys to the majors.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Farm system rankings don't win games. Actual players produced win games. Every year the Royals farm ranks highly but they don't really produce once they get to the majors. The Braves in the other hand promote talent so fast that they are not eligible for prospect lists when they are at peak prospect value.

And he'll no I don't want Moore as GM. Why? The Shields trade? Signing Francoeur to a multi year contract? His overall disdain for OBP? Prospects failing to produce in the majors? How many years of high draft picks did he have to just barely squeak into the playoffs?
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I don't particularly want Dayton Moore, but I still don't see why the Shields deal is held up as some kind of horrific move. Classic now for later deal. Shields has had two solid seasons in Kansas City and Wade Davis was arguably the best set-up man in baseball this season. Beane gives up Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily for similar pitchers and guys in here are hailing like it's some great move. Pretty much the exact same trades.
 
50PoundHead said:
But Wood and A. Simmons are the only top-drawer guys since Roy Clark left. It's not just getting guys to the majors. It's getting top-tier guys to the majors.
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And how many top tier guys did we have between 2002-2008? Draft placement is a huge deal in getting a lot of top tier players to the majors at once.
 
50PoundHead said:
I don't particularly want Dayton Moore, but I still don't see why the Shields deal is held up as some kind of horrific move. Classic now for later deal. Shields has had two solid seasons in Kansas City and Wade Davis was arguably the best set-up man in baseball this season. Beane gives up Addison Russell, Billy McKinney, and Dan Straily for similar pitchers and guys in here are hailing like it's some great move. Pretty much the exact same trades.
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I think that A's trade was terrible too.

Shields trade was terrible because they should have kept Myers and started him in RF. Their hitting is pathetic.
 
CyYoung31 said:
And how many top tier guys did we have between 2002-2008? Draft placement is a huge deal in getting a lot of top tier players to the majors at once.
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When I say top-drawer, I don't necessarily mean all-star. I mean full-time solid regular. Not everyone in that category was a first-round pick or highly-sought after Latin American player. Simmons is the only regular we have garnered since Roy Clark (and he was a 2nd-round pick). Freddie Freeman was a second-round pick. The simple fact is that we haven't plugged in anyone from our drafts other than Simmons and Gattis (and Gattis was pretty much a hook shot from half court). We've moved a lot of guys and that factors into things, but when people cite how many people we've graduated from the system without looking at the fact that most of them look like part-timers or end-of-the-bench guys (or back-end of the bullpen guys), it's not what I would call honest analysis.

We've done a bit better in the pitching department with Minor, Wood, Kimbrel and a few others, but our procurement of offensive talent has been pretty miserable in the past half decade.
 
zitothebrave said:
I think that A's trade was terrible too.

Shields trade was terrible because they should have kept Myers and started him in RF. Their hitting is pathetic.
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They aren't in the playoff hunt without Shields. Again, it was a now-for-later deal and Moore felt the heat to make a playoff run.
 
zitothebrave said:
That stuck around? Heyward, Mac, and Freeman. Francoeur, Hanson, etc. flamed out.
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I'm talking about those who saw Major League action by that point, not simply got drafted. And that's my point. Heyward, Freeman, and Hanson came from higher picks because of our mediocrity in the late 2000s. We didn't bring up many top tier guys before 2009, and even fewer that went on to have productive Major League careers.
 
CyYoung31 said:
I'm talking about those who saw Major League action by that point, not simply got drafted. And that's my point. Heyward, Freeman, and Hanson came from higher picks because of our mediocrity in the late 2000s. We didn't bring up many top tier guys before 2009, and even fewer that went on to have productive Major League careers.
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Hanson was a 22nd round draft-and-follow, so I don't see how he qualifies.

In 2007, the Braves' line-up included Kelly Johnson (Supplemental Round), Brian McCann (2nd round), Jeff Francoeur (1st round), and Scott Thorman (1st round). Justin Saltalamacchia (Supplemental Round) and Yunel Escober (2nd Round) also saw action during the season. Of those I would argue that Johnson, McCann, Escobar, and Saltalamacchia have all been reliable regulars for extended periods.

Add to the list Martin Prado, who wasn't a highly-touted signing, and I hope you can see what I'm driving at.
 
50PoundHead said:
They aren't in the playoff hunt without Shields. Again, it was a now-for-later deal and Moore felt the heat to make a playoff run.
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Perhaps not, but I think they could have gotten a pitcher of similar value to Shields for less. While I disagree with Gilesfan when he said Fister>Shields but they could have gotten Fister and kept Myers, that would have been a better option overall and maybe they had to wait a year, but they didn't make the playoffs last year anyway.

It's not likely the worst trade of all time but it makes them worse long term.
 
50PoundHead said:
Hanson was a 22nd round draft-and-follow, so I don't see how he qualifies.

In 2007, the Braves' line-up included Kelly Johnson (Supplemental Round), Brian McCann (2nd round), Jeff Francoeur (1st round), and Scott Thorman (1st round). Justin Saltalamacchia (Supplemental Round) and Yunel Escober (2nd Round) also saw action during the season. Of those I would argue that Johnson, McCann, Escobar, and Saltalamacchia have all been reliable regulars for extended periods.

Add to the list Martin Prado, who wasn't a highly-touted signing, and I hope you can see what I'm driving at.
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And we traded for Tex because of how ****ty Thorman was.
 
zitothebrave said:
And we traded for Tex because of how ****ty Thorman was.
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No one put a gun to Schuerholz' head. They had other options instead of making the Texeira deal. And don't get me wrong, I think Texeira was one of the ten best players in baseball when that trade was made. The price was simply too steep though.

We're just never going to agree on the Shields trade. It was a now-for-later. Myers was injured this year, so the jury is rightfully out for 2014. But Shields is a very underrated pitcher. They needed a solid top-of-the-rotation guy and Shields is that kind of guy.

PS--I doubt the Tigers would have traded Fister within the division.
 
Shields is a very good pitcher. One of the better pitchers in baseball. But as a team that needs more than one piece to get into the post season you don't trade a top 5 prospect for him.
 
zitothebrave said:
Shields is a very good pitcher. One of the better pitchers in baseball. But as a team that needs more than one piece to get into the post season you don't trade a top 5 prospect for him.
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Starting pitching was the Royals' biggest need. You can manufacture offense in a variety of ways. You can't manufacture starting pitching. The Braves' unprecedented 15-year run pretty much bears that out.
 
50PoundHead said:
Starting pitching was the Royals' biggest need. You can manufacture offense in a variety of ways. You can't manufacture starting pitching. The Braves' unprecedented 15-year run pretty much bears that out.
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I would disagree. They have very solid pitching. There's many ways you can win games, pitching is for sure part of it, but you can only pitch 33-35 games, a position player can impact many more games than that.
 
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