I just read a couple of pretty good articles over on Tomahawk Take detailing what two writers would do if they were GM this offseason.
The first one describes how a BJ plus cash to Toronto for Buerhle might work:
http://tomahawktake.com/2014/10/09/...tm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Trending on FS
My comments: In general, way too much roster turnover to be realistic. I hate the ideas of trading JUp and/or Heyward, especially while keeping CJ. Selling low on Minor would be a mistake in my opinion. CB is not ready to be an everyday MLB catcher on either side of the ball, so trading Gattis would also be a blunder. He also assumes the payroll will be near the $112M it was last season, but I think we can all agree the Santana contract was a one-time thing, and payroll will be closer to $100M. The lineup is also ridiculously LHed heavy.
On the plus side, I LOVE the Valbuena acquisition. I think he is someone the Braves should key in on this offseason.
The second article describes how to unload BJ, Minor plus cash to the Cubs for Edwin Jackson, Luis Valbuena, and Chris Coghlan:
http://tomahawktake.com/2014/09/30/offseason-atlanta-braves-gm/
My comments: This one comes in at a more reasonable $100M payroll, but he doesn't even fill the #4 slot in the rotation (?????? will log exactly 0 IP in 2015). No way in hell do I see the Braves signing Shields for 5 years after just dealing with the Lowe, Uggla and BJ disasters. I vehemently disagree about selling low on Minor, and trading JUp for prospects (he didn't even name possible targets) is not the way to get back to the playoffs.
Again, I LOVE the Valbuena acquisition. I like that he kept Gattis, and dumped CJ so he could go with a Goss/Valby (tm) platoon at 3B. I also love the idea of a Dexter Fowler acquisition.
Since just bashing other folks' ideas without offering my own GM plan for scrutiny would be poor internet form, he is what I would do:
First and foremost I don't think BJ has to go anywhere. This is not the Uggla situation where he is complete dead weight on the roster. We are still talking about a premium athlete with a (very) small chance to turn back into a dynamic player, who at the very worst can serve as a 4th/5th OFer capable of playing CF and being a valuable pinch runner. Most rosters have a player exactly like that, even though they don't usually make $15M per year. Fact of the matter is the Braves don't have anyone better in the organization to fill that slot on the bench, so it makes little sense to include tons of cash and controllable talent just to move BJ...so BJ stays...on the bench...with his ticket to AAA pre-purchased.
However, the OF absolutely MUST be fixed, and it must be fixed by acquiring a guy that can hit at the top of the lineup. This man does not need to be able to play CF since Heyward can slide over, but he must not be a butcher in a corner OF slot. He also can not be insanely expensive, nor can he cost a draft pick to acquire (the Braves pick 16th). Acceptable options are signing Nori Aoki or Torii Hunter, and trading for Dexter Fowler. Either of those 3 guys could join Heyward to form a legitimate 1-2 combo at the top of the lineup. Caveat: If it is decided that one of Heyward or Justin be traded this offseason, the team should look closely into signing the Cuban, Mr. Tomas.
I will NOT sell low on Minor. It's just not happening 1 year after a cost controlled 26 year old LHer put up a 3.1 WAR season by logging 204 IP with a FIP of 3.37. Sorry, but Minor gets his chance to rebound and will slot into the #4 slot of the rotation. The #3 slot needs to be filled by a legit middle of the rotation arm that won't cost an arm and a leg to acquire. After offering a QO to Santana, he is an option if he signs for around 3/40. If he accepts the 1/15 deal that comes with the QO, fine, the rotation is set at a very slight overpay for one year. Other options are Brandon McCarthy at around 3/36, Justin Masterson at 1/12-14, and AJ Burnett on a 1-2 year deal if he doesn't go back to the Phils. The 5th slot can be a battle between internal options like Hale, and any scrap heap additions the Braves are so adept at acquiring.
I will bring in Luis Valbuena, even if I can't unload CJ. Oh yeah, I will try to unload CJ, but I'm going to assume nobody wants him. CJ would be a serious non-tender candidate (which I predicted last offseason), but now the Braves are locked into him for a few years. Give the Cubs whatever fungible pitching assets they want, but Valbuena will be wearing a Braves uniform in 2015. He will play 3B in a platoon with either Goss or CJ, and will also be insurance in case TLS doesn't work out at 2B and/or if Peraza is not ready by the middle/end of 2015.
Gattis stays. Period. CB gets to back him up 2-3 games per week. Having that kind of power bat on the roster for league minimum is something this team quite simply can not afford to give up.
Your 2015 Atlanta Braves:
Gattis $0.5
Freeman $8.5
TLS $0.5
Valby $3.0
Simmons $3.0
Justin $14.5
Heyward $7.8
Aoki $5.0
CB $0.5
Goss $0.5
BJ $14.5
Terdo $0.5
CJ $6.0
Teheran $1.0
Wood $0.5
Minor $5.0
Santana $14.0
SP5 $1.0
Kimbrel $9.0
Walden $2.5
Shae $0.5
Avilan $0.5
Varvaro $1.0
BP6 $1.0
BP7 $0.5
total $101.3
The first one describes how a BJ plus cash to Toronto for Buerhle might work:
http://tomahawktake.com/2014/10/09/...tm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=Trending on FS
My comments: In general, way too much roster turnover to be realistic. I hate the ideas of trading JUp and/or Heyward, especially while keeping CJ. Selling low on Minor would be a mistake in my opinion. CB is not ready to be an everyday MLB catcher on either side of the ball, so trading Gattis would also be a blunder. He also assumes the payroll will be near the $112M it was last season, but I think we can all agree the Santana contract was a one-time thing, and payroll will be closer to $100M. The lineup is also ridiculously LHed heavy.
On the plus side, I LOVE the Valbuena acquisition. I think he is someone the Braves should key in on this offseason.
The second article describes how to unload BJ, Minor plus cash to the Cubs for Edwin Jackson, Luis Valbuena, and Chris Coghlan:
http://tomahawktake.com/2014/09/30/offseason-atlanta-braves-gm/
My comments: This one comes in at a more reasonable $100M payroll, but he doesn't even fill the #4 slot in the rotation (?????? will log exactly 0 IP in 2015). No way in hell do I see the Braves signing Shields for 5 years after just dealing with the Lowe, Uggla and BJ disasters. I vehemently disagree about selling low on Minor, and trading JUp for prospects (he didn't even name possible targets) is not the way to get back to the playoffs.
Again, I LOVE the Valbuena acquisition. I like that he kept Gattis, and dumped CJ so he could go with a Goss/Valby (tm) platoon at 3B. I also love the idea of a Dexter Fowler acquisition.
Since just bashing other folks' ideas without offering my own GM plan for scrutiny would be poor internet form, he is what I would do:
First and foremost I don't think BJ has to go anywhere. This is not the Uggla situation where he is complete dead weight on the roster. We are still talking about a premium athlete with a (very) small chance to turn back into a dynamic player, who at the very worst can serve as a 4th/5th OFer capable of playing CF and being a valuable pinch runner. Most rosters have a player exactly like that, even though they don't usually make $15M per year. Fact of the matter is the Braves don't have anyone better in the organization to fill that slot on the bench, so it makes little sense to include tons of cash and controllable talent just to move BJ...so BJ stays...on the bench...with his ticket to AAA pre-purchased.
However, the OF absolutely MUST be fixed, and it must be fixed by acquiring a guy that can hit at the top of the lineup. This man does not need to be able to play CF since Heyward can slide over, but he must not be a butcher in a corner OF slot. He also can not be insanely expensive, nor can he cost a draft pick to acquire (the Braves pick 16th). Acceptable options are signing Nori Aoki or Torii Hunter, and trading for Dexter Fowler. Either of those 3 guys could join Heyward to form a legitimate 1-2 combo at the top of the lineup. Caveat: If it is decided that one of Heyward or Justin be traded this offseason, the team should look closely into signing the Cuban, Mr. Tomas.
I will NOT sell low on Minor. It's just not happening 1 year after a cost controlled 26 year old LHer put up a 3.1 WAR season by logging 204 IP with a FIP of 3.37. Sorry, but Minor gets his chance to rebound and will slot into the #4 slot of the rotation. The #3 slot needs to be filled by a legit middle of the rotation arm that won't cost an arm and a leg to acquire. After offering a QO to Santana, he is an option if he signs for around 3/40. If he accepts the 1/15 deal that comes with the QO, fine, the rotation is set at a very slight overpay for one year. Other options are Brandon McCarthy at around 3/36, Justin Masterson at 1/12-14, and AJ Burnett on a 1-2 year deal if he doesn't go back to the Phils. The 5th slot can be a battle between internal options like Hale, and any scrap heap additions the Braves are so adept at acquiring.
I will bring in Luis Valbuena, even if I can't unload CJ. Oh yeah, I will try to unload CJ, but I'm going to assume nobody wants him. CJ would be a serious non-tender candidate (which I predicted last offseason), but now the Braves are locked into him for a few years. Give the Cubs whatever fungible pitching assets they want, but Valbuena will be wearing a Braves uniform in 2015. He will play 3B in a platoon with either Goss or CJ, and will also be insurance in case TLS doesn't work out at 2B and/or if Peraza is not ready by the middle/end of 2015.
Gattis stays. Period. CB gets to back him up 2-3 games per week. Having that kind of power bat on the roster for league minimum is something this team quite simply can not afford to give up.
Your 2015 Atlanta Braves:
Gattis $0.5
Freeman $8.5
TLS $0.5
Valby $3.0
Simmons $3.0
Justin $14.5
Heyward $7.8
Aoki $5.0
CB $0.5
Goss $0.5
BJ $14.5
Terdo $0.5
CJ $6.0
Teheran $1.0
Wood $0.5
Minor $5.0
Santana $14.0
SP5 $1.0
Kimbrel $9.0
Walden $2.5
Shae $0.5
Avilan $0.5
Varvaro $1.0
BP6 $1.0
BP7 $0.5
total $101.3
