Jason Heyward talks possible contract extension with the Braves....

[thethe]

IF we get multiple young pieces, and IF they work out. Heyward IS a young piece that has shown plenty of flashes and could put it together at any time (he already has in the past).

And unless those hypothetical young pieces contribute immediately, we will be worse than mediocre for at least a year or two. It's all a gamble. Heyward has shown plenty of signs of being a good gamble.

Unfortunately our current contract situation could force us to trade Heyward or Upton. Trading for prospects does work as long as you have the right people picking the players.

If you could get a package of Betts/Owens from the Red Sox I think we would strongly have to consider it.

 

[sturg33]

The ticket to getting rid of BJ is to package him with Kimbrel. But most folks say that is off the table.

If it means we keep Heyward, we should have done it yesterday. Kimbrel pitched 60 innings last year, or about 4%. Yet for some reason, it's blasphemous to suggest trading him to get us out of the worst contract in team history

 

[cajunrevenge]

I would trade Heywood in a second for Betts and Owens. Unless they move Heywood to center I think there is a good chance Betts is more valuable in 2015. I really like the idea of Betts/Peraza/Freeman at the top of the lineup. Rather trade Justin if I had the choice.

Trading Kimbrel is something that I think would make us better but he isn't cheap anymore so pairing him with BJ might 9 nl get us a marginal prospect and only get off the hook for half his contract if that.

 

[ramadon101]

Yes. When you talk about price per WAR it's generally in 2-3 WAR range. The higher a players WAR generally the less per WAR you will pay. If you can afford a superstar player then it's very smart to do so. A 6 WAR player will generally cost less per year than two 3 WAR players

While that is true in a vacuum, and I am most certainly in the Please Retain Heyward (tm) camp, you are also discounting the intrinsic value of the hedge that two 3 WAR players provide vis a vis one 6 WAR player. Depending on the specific players, you are more likely to achieve your rate of return betting on two 3 WAR players with some upside than a single 6 WAR player (taking into account risk of injury, performance fluctuations at the top end, etc.)

With that said, I'd offer 18m/AAV for 7 years with an option year or two. That is a fair offer in my opinion and also gives Atlanta a slight hometown discount.

 

[MadduxFanII]

It's kind of odd to talk about the need to dispense with Heyward in order to improve the offense when, in fact, Heyward is a positive offensive contributor. He hasn't been the hitter we've all wanted him to be, of course, and I'm not going to argue that a .384 SLG from a corner outfielder is sterling, but he's been a solidly above-average hitter every year of his career save 2011.

I think a lot of fans might still be struggling to mentally adjust raw statistics to the new offensive environment. Realistically, our chances of replacing Jason with someone we can count on to hit as well as him are awfully small.

Of course, if the idea is that we're not going to compete for the next couple years anyway, then sure, trading Heyward as part of a re-trenching strategy before the new park opens up is reasonable enough. Let's just understand that such a trade hurts the big league club offensively and defensively in the short term.

 

[thewupk]

While that is true in a vacuum, and I am most certainly in the Please Retain Heyward (tm) camp, you are also discounting the intrinsic value of the hedge that two 3 WAR players provide vis a vis one 6 WAR player. Depending on the specific players, you are more likely to achieve your rate of return betting on two 3 WAR players with some upside than a single 6 WAR player (taking into account risk of injury, performance fluctuations at the top end, etc.)

With that said, I'd offer 18m/AAV for 7 years with an option year or two. That is a fair offer in my opinion and also gives Atlanta a slight hometown discount.

There are risks in putting all of your eggs into one basket so to speak. And it does depend on the player but I think it's something that would be advantageous for Heyward. He is not 30+ year old looking to cash it where the last half of the contract will likely be bad. He would be here throughout his prime and normally the best seasons of his career. Atlanta also usually has a good farm and should be able to produce a quality player to fill whatever position would be needed that signing 1 player instead of 2 for that money would leave open. There are risks with signing superstar players. However if done right and in the correct situation provides the maximum opportunity for the team to play at it's best. And I believe Heyward (for the type of player he is on the field and his age) would be the perfect player for that.

 

[Heyward]

Fckn $23 mil for 5-6 years? Some of you need to see through that fan bias, Jesus. He's not nearly worth that much and I pray to god the front office let's his @ss walk if that's the range he's shooting for.

Most would agree he's probably not worth that, but who do you replace him with if you don't pay him?

Pay him and just hope he turns it up a notch.

And prospects are exactly that, they are no given.

 

[emk418]

Most would agree he's probably not worth that, but who do you replace him with if you don't pay him?

Pay him and just hope he turns it up a notch.

And prospects are exactly that, they are no given.

Sorry I just don't agree with that logic. Overpay for someone because we don't currently have a replacement? If we're talking overpaying for someone short term it's one thing but when you're dishing out $100M plus contracts to someone hoping they one day are worth it? That's not smart business and could be crippling to a mid market team. Hoping we can lock him up in the $15M range but can't see that happening.

 

[Heyward]

Sorry I just don't agree with that logic. Overpay for someone because we don't currently have a replacement? If we're talking overpaying for someone short term it's one thing but when you're dishing out $100M plus contracts to someone hoping they one day are worth it? That's not smart business and could be crippling to a mid market team. Hoping we can lock him up in the $15M range but can't see that happening.

Our payroll is clearly going up especially with the new stadium, it will be around 130-140 million by 2017.

They can give him that and still be alright.

 

[jsebe10]

Look...nobody is downplaying the importance of defense. But the biggest reason for our struggles is an atrocious offense. Everyone wants to talk about WAR being the end all stat but it's flawed. Heyward's WAR is that good because of his defense and I will gladly sacrifice some defense in RF for an impact bat. Seems like I have to continue saying this but I PREFER keeping Heyward and I know there's no guarantee a trade works out. I'm just very curious what Heyward could get on the trade market.

This team has quite a few needs to fill long term and I personally think turning Heyward into a few pieces while saving $20M and spending elsewhere might end up being the better move.

Bingo. I keep reading "when goes, our offense goes"...how is that a good thing? Our offense was an abortion last year with him in it and out of it...The only time that theory was logical was a couple seasons ago when he got hit in the face. He is the best RF defensively in the game, no doubt...but he is absolutely replaceable out there. If he drove in about as much runs as he saves, then pay the man.

 

[Heyward]

Bingo. I keep reading "when goes, our offense goes"...how is that a good thing? Our offense was an abortion last year with him in it and out of it...The only time that theory was logical was a couple seasons ago when he got hit in the face. He is the best RF defensively in the game, no doubt...but he is absolutely replaceable out there. If he drove in about as much runs as he saves, then pay the man.

Every player in technically replaceable but you gotta keep your good players, and he's one of them.

 

[yeezus]

Someone said Heyward wouldn't be that hard to replace?
Alright I'm out.

 

[yeezus]

If you could get a package of Betts/Owens from the Red Sox I think we would strongly have to consider it.

Sure, we consider that. And there's absolutely no guarantee they even come close to offering two prospects with that upside. Who says they'd offer something like that? It could be no where close, or one of them and a C-prospect. Or not even including one of them because cost-controlled players with upside are worth a ton.

 

[The Tariff King]

Bingo. I keep reading "when goes, our offense goes"...how is that a good thing? Our offense was an abortion last year with him in it and out of it...The only time that theory was logical was a couple seasons ago when he got hit in the face. He is the best RF defensively in the game, no doubt...but he is absolutely replaceable out there. If he drove in about as much runs as he saves, then pay the man.

Hard to drive in runs when he's leading off or Fredi puts him at 5 or 6.

 

[BremanFan88]

If he drove in about as much runs as he saves, then pay the man.

Using RBI's as a sign of good offensive production... I bet you love Ryan Howard right? Can you get anymore meaningless than the RBI stat? Fun fact: Heyward was pretty good with runners in scoring position last season. Those chances were just few and far apart for him.

 

[emk418]

Using RBI's as a sign of good offensive production... I bet you love Ryan Howard right? Can you get anymore meaningless than the RBI stat? Fun fact: Heyward was pretty good with runners in scoring position last season. Those chances were just few and far apart for him.

Completely agree about RBI's being a terrible judge of success but lets not ignore how flawed of a stat WAR is.

 

[Carp]

It's kind of odd to talk about the need to dispense with Heyward in order to improve the offense when, in fact, Heyward is a positive offensive contributor. He hasn't been the hitter we've all wanted him to be, of course, and I'm not going to argue that a .384 SLG from a corner outfielder is sterling, but he's been a solidly above-average hitter every year of his career save 2011.

I think a lot of fans might still be struggling to mentally adjust raw statistics to the new offensive environment. Realistically, our chances of replacing Jason with someone we can count on to hit as well as him are awfully small.

Of course, if the idea is that we're not going to compete for the next couple years anyway, then sure, trading Heyward as part of a re-trenching strategy before the new park opens up is reasonable enough. Let's just understand that such a trade hurts the big league club offensively and defensively in the short term.

I agree with this. My standpoint is and has always been, try to re-sign him to a reasonable contract. But if he refuses, we need to try and get something for him now in an attempt to shorten the gap of time it will take to develop suitable replacements.

It isn't just Heyward vs. random prospects from other teams. It's Heyward vs. 100+ million over 6-7 yrs AND random prospects from other teams.

To tell the truth, I'm about to the point where I'd like to firesale everyone aside from Freddie, Kimbrel, Simmons, and JT. But with us moving to the new stadium in 3 yrs, that isn't going to happen.

 

[KB21]

I think this will be a priority for John Hart this off-season. They wanted to get it done last year, but there were some hard feelings between the previous front office and Jason after the negotiations. I'm confident this will get done.

 

[thewupk]

Completely agree about RBI's being a terrible judge of success but lets not ignore how flawed of a stat WAR is.

How flawed is it? It's not perfect. No stat is. But the it's the closest we have to this point and a lot less flawed than some try to make it out to be.

 

[NYCBrave]

It's good that these discussions are happening now and we can get a feel for where we are at. If we have to wait until the off season when he's a free agent, I don't see us being able to compete with teams like the Yankees in signing him as a free agent.