AJC: Braves Could Go Into Rebuild Mode, Aim Toward 2017

I'm sorry but no matter what we do in regards to trades, FA, etc is pointless with FG at the helm. You could have Kershaw, Bumgardner, and Jose Fernandez in the starting rotation and Stanton, Caberra, Trout in the lineup and although we MAY make the playoffs we won't advance beyond the first round.
 
NYCBrave said:
I like the premise of your thinking, however, i don't see us getting as much value out of Upton/Heyward as you're hoping, and thus I think the rebuild won't be as easy as you think. For example, no way the Mariners are giving up their #1 and #2 prospects, along with Sanchez who is near the top, for a 1 year rental along with some other parts.

I also don't think Carlos Gomez is allowed on our team lol
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Seattle like St. Louis would have the need and financial capabilities to sign both longterm.

Say what you want about Gomez, but the guy is a tremendous 5-tool player who would bring passion (we've been missing that) to our lineup.

Thanks for the conversation!
 
holden said:
This is so stupid.

We have a core that is good enough to get to the playoffs, with some careful management. If you make the playoffs, your season is a success - at that point it's just a crap shoot.

If we go fire sale this offseason with a team THIS CLOSE to competing for a playoff spot, I'm done.
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Your season isn't a success unless you are World Series Champions.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Challange accepted.

Trade Kimbrel/Johnson for Michael Saunders, Fernando Rodney, and 2015 competitive balance pick. The Mariners have a left handed heavy lineup with 2 very good lefty hitters in Cano and Seager. They need a lefty masher liker Johnson as much as anyone. Rodney isnt a bad closer but he isnt Kimbrel and he is only signed for 1 more year.

Sign Andrew Miller 4 years 40 million. Miller serves as Venters to Rodney's Kimbrel for 2015. This allows the Braves to use their best reliever in the most important spot in the game instead of pigeon holeing him into the 9th inning. In 2016 Miller moves to closer. I would backload his salary to be 2.5 mill his first year and 12.5 mill the last 3 years.

Trade Evan Gattis and Tommy La Stella for Jeff Samardzjia and John Jaso. Gattis is a very similar hitter to Cespedes who the A's desperately missed when he was traded. La Stella is just the kind of player Beane likes, cheap and can get on base. Jaso is a decent hitting lefty catcher we need to backup Bethancourt. Both Samardzjia and Jaso are free agents after 2015 so Beane gets long term assets for short term assets. This gives the Braves are formidable big 3 in the rotation.

Sign Chase Headley 4 years 50 million. Guessing on contract amount. I would split the contract so he gets 5 million his first year and then 15 million his last 3 years

Sign Stephen Drew to 1 year 7.5 million contract. Guessing on amount again. He would be the starter at 2B for 2 months to save the year of service time on Peraza and get him

some time at AAA. I figure by that time we will have spots open due to injury or bad performance.

Sign Justin Masterson to 1 year incentive laden contract. I know he will sign a deal like this but I just dont know for how much. Probably wont be more than a few million. I would sell him on the infield defense the Braves would have with Simmons, Headley, and eventually Peraza behind him. Best case scenario he has a good year and we get a draft pick for him next year

Sign Yasmany Tomas for 7 years 105 million. I would start him with a low salary in 2015 to fit him in.

Sign Emilio Bonfifacio 2 years 8 million. His versatility is a big asset. Would pay him 3 mill first year and 5 the second.

I would give BJ spring training to show improvement. If he does and Tomas looks like he needs time at AAA then I would keep him. Otherwise I would trade him for whatever

I could get or release him.

25 man opening day roster

Julio Teheran

Alex Wood

Jeff Samardzjia

Mike Minor

Justin Masterson

Fernando Rodney

Andrew Miller

Jordan Walden

Shae Simmons

James Russell

Anthony Varvaro

David Carpenter

Christian Bethancourt

John Jaso

Freddie Freeman

Stephen Drew

Andrelton Simmons

Chase Headley

Emilio Bonifacio

Phil Gosselin

Jason Heywood

Justin Upton

Yasmany Tomas

Michael Saunders

For 2015 I am banking on the power of being a contract year to get the most from Heywood/Justin. Hopefully they go Adrian Beltre in their walk year. Saunders/Tomas should atleast make a great platoon and we will already have 2 starting outfield spots filled for 2016.

For 2016 assuming none of the big free agents are willing to sign reasonable contracts I would let them walk. Take the draft picks. In the 2015 draft we would have our own first round pick, will get a comp pick for Santana and got a competitive balance round B pick from the Mariners in the Kimbrel trade. Then when Heywood, Justin, and Samardzjia leave we get 3 more comp picks. If we are lucky we would get one for Masterson too. All those picks will kick start the farm system back to where it used to be.
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Where are we getting all this money from???
 
50PoundHead said:
I am not advocating the fire sale approach, but at least you thought some things through.

We're kind of in the netherworld as a team. Given the state of the starting pitching and the swing-and-miss holes in the line-up, I think a lot of things would have to go right for us to make the playoffs. So, we're in this area where we're too good to pack it in and not quite good enough to go all in (which is also complicated by the budget most likely). I've been a fan for 50+ years, so I won't quit on the team regardless of which way they go, but it's a pickle.

PS--No way I want Carlos Gomez in Atlanta. Guy is a total jerk.
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Thank you for the compliment. Say what you want about Gomez, but the guy is a tremendous 5-tool player who would bring passion (we've been missing that) to our lineup.
 
emk418 said:
No possible way we get DJ Peterson AND Walker for Upton. I agree about Heyward though and think we match up perfectly with the Cardinals. Carlos Martinez, Piscotty, Marco Gonzalez for Heyward would be ideal.
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I truly believe we could get Walker and Peterson for Upton/Jamie/Salcedo. The Mariners tried to obtain Upton before he was dealt to the Braves, so the interest is there. The deal would obviously be centered around Walker but the Mariners have Kyle Seager (All-Star and Gold Glove winner) already at third base (not a FA until 2018) and Patrick Kivlehan (another Top 10 prospect) also in the minors. When the M's tried to trade for Upton in 2012 they were going to give up Nick Franklin, Stephen Pryor, Charlie Furbush and one of Walker, James Paxton, or Danny Hultzen. While there is a huge difference in having Upton for 1 year compared to 3, the package they were willing to give up then is significantly higher than Walker and Peterson as they were giving up there #1 (assuming it was Walker), #3, #6 ranked prospects along with a fairly decent left handed reliever. Now, throw in the fact that Walker had shoulder problems last year I think that that package of Walker/Peterson is a fair one. If Upton were to agree beforehand to an extension the Braves could get another Top 15 prospect and another fringy prospect on top of that.
 
clvclv said:
1.) Where exactly would Johnson play in Seattle???

2.) That doesn't come close to getting Samardzija IMO.

3.) Drew is on record as having said he has little interest in playing 2B. Why on earth would you pay him $7.5 million for two months instead of letting Gosselin keep the spot warm for $550,000 or you could re-sign Bonifacio for less than half of that???

4.) When was the last time an organization hit on 10 early picks in back-to-back drafts??? You do realize that the current structure of draft pools would keep us from being able to draft the 10 best players available in those spots since we'd have to spend like 4 times what would be available for us to spend, right?
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1. 1B/3B/DH/Pinch hit vs lefties. Seattle as a team had a .636 OPS vs lefties and according to nearly every stat they were the second worst team vs lefties. Its not so much about them wanting Johnson as it is using Kimbrels value to pawn him off to a team that he has some value to.

2. I respect your opinion but its impossible to come up with trades that everyone would agree on. I bet there are plenty of people who think that would be too much to give up for a rental of Samardzjia and Jaso. We could trade Gattis for a good starting pitcher. Whether thats Samardzjia or not.

3. I dont know everything said "on record". I know he played 2B for the Yankees and figured he would for us. I can do without Drew, so scratch him from the team.

4. We dont have to hit on 10 picks. Its like a lottery, more tickets the better chance to win. This is about what I would do not what the Braves will do. None of these picks are top 5 picks which cost 2-6 million. All those picks combined will cost less than 1 year of what we are paying BJ. I would call a meeting with whoever is in charge and makes some kind of farm analogy about how its cheaper to plant the seeds and grow them yourself instead of buying crops already full grown.

Carp said:
And where are we coming up with this magical money to make these trades/signing? Are we getting an extra 20 million in our stocking this yr? Why would we trade Kimbrell for lesser talent, only to sign Miller for roughly the same amount?

And the challenge was what do we do after 2015 when Upton and Heyward are gone. You didn't address that at all. Saunders and Tomas isn't an inspiring combo, especially at their price. And Saunders is gone after 2016.
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Came out to 121.2 million when I added it up. Could probably lower it by about 5-10 million with big options years with a buyout on some contracts. The key is backloading some of the money. After 2015 a lot of payroll comes of the books if we dont re-sign Jason or Justin.

Trading Kimbrel and signing Miller is about selling high and buying low. Kimbrel is at the peak of his value. Nothing he can do outside of pitching lights out in a deep playoff run is going to raise his value at this point. Miller was just as good last year but it was only 1 year and he has no long term experience as a closer. Thats why he isnt going to get 15+ million a year. If we can get positive assets for Kimbrel and then replace him with someone close to as good for the same price we become a better team. I think we could get even more value from Miller by using him like we used to use Venters since we would have Rodney to close.

My plan is to go for it all in 2015 and then use the draft picks to jump start a rebuilding phase. Its hard to say what to do when we dont know how 2015 will go. Worst case we go into a full rebuilding best case we patch some holes and hope to compete in 2016.
 
blueagleace1 said:
Thank you for the compliment. Say what you want about Gomez, but the guy is a tremendous 5-tool player who would bring passion (we've been missing that) to our lineup.
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We'd have that if Heyward loved baseball. Also "passion" and being a moron are the same thing when you're talking about Gomez...
 
Braves78 said:
I'm sorry but no matter what we do in regards to trades, FA, etc is pointless with FG at the helm. You could have Kershaw, Bumgardner, and Jose Fernandez in the starting rotation and Stanton, Caberra, Trout in the lineup and although we MAY make the playoffs we won't advance beyond the first round.
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I agree. FanGraphs is a nice website, but with their total lack of experience theres no way they should be managing a team
 
If this organization seriously decides to throw in the towel for two years and aim towards 2017, the fans, that already do a terrible job of showing up, will thin out even more. And then they'd better hope they actually build right for 2017.

It will be tough to root for them if they do this.
 
CyYoung31 said:
This team can be competitive with a few patches. And you know what puts fans in the seats? A winning team.
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Sorry, no...what we need to do is what is in the best interest of putting together a young exciting team that has a "legit" shot at winning the whole damn thing ala the mid to late 90's. We've done enough of this patchwork thing ever since 2002 which was the last year in which I felt we had a "legit shot" at winning the World Series.

And although I know I'm gonna get, well all we have to do is make it and anything can happen, and that is true but patchworks with the way the current roster is constructed and the budget restraints going forward aren't really going to work.

What we need to do is build a solid nucleus and build for 2017, whether that means trading Upton or Heyward or both, or extending one or both, we need to take into consideration what is best to put a legitimate contender on the field for the new stadium and create an exciting environment like Fulton County Stadium was in the early to mid 90's.

We have a bunch of fair weather fans, and patchworking ain't gonna get them interested, but put a fun exciting young contending team in a new stadium will bring them out in full force and once again opposing teams will fear coming into Atlanta. And if that is the case then it could build the next potential dynasty and set the precident for the next decade on putting a competitive team year after year onto the field.

Patchwork and stay with the status quo, along with losing both Upton and Heyward for nothing but potential draft picks that won't help for 2017 if they aren't willing to negotiate to terms that are slightly below market value to a team friendly contract and the short and long-term affects along with going into the new stadium could be potentially devasting.
 
Millwood1Hitter said:
Sorry, no...what we need to do is what is in the best interest of putting together a young exciting team that has a "legit" shot at winning the whole damn thing ala the mid to late 90's. We've done enough of this patchwork thing ever since 2002 which was the last year in which I felt we had a "legit shot" at winning the World Series.
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When you look at some of the recent teams who have made and even won the World Series, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that any team that starts out the season with a 30 WAR (which works out to about 78 wins) or better projection has a "legit shot." It is a fairly easy call that if you are a 25 WAR or worse team you should dump players who don't figure in your long term plans. But any team that projects 30 WAR or better should be trying to improve in order to win a ticket to this year's lottery.

Here's a link to an article about pre-season 2014 projections for major league teams:

http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/2014-mlb-win-total-projections

Kansas City projected to win 80 games. Would it have been wise for them to punt on 2014 and aim for building "a fun exciting young contending team" in 2016. Should they have traded Shields for prospects?

Baltimore projected to win 79 games. Would it have been wise for them to punt in 2014 and aim to build "a fun exciting young contending team" in 2016.

Let's not overreact to the disappointment and bad taste left in our mouths over how 2014 ended for the Braves.

There are teams that should be punting on 2015. The list would include: Philadelphia, Houston, San Diego and maybe the White Sox and Twins. We are far from being in that category. Each season is precious. You give up on one only under compelling circumstances. I say this in part because it is foolish to think that even the best laid plans have any guarantee of success in 2017 or beyond.
 
nsacpi said:
When you look at some of the recent teams who have made and even won the World Series, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that any team that starts out the season with a 30 WAR (which works out to about 78 wins) or better projection has a "legit shot." It is a fairly easy call that if you are a 25 WAR or worse team you should dump players who don't figure in your long term plans. But any team that projects 30 WAR or better should be trying to improve in order to win a ticket to this year's lottery.

Here's a link to an article about pre-season 2014 projections for major league teams:

http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/2014-mlb-win-total-projections

Kansas City projected to win 80 games. Would it have been wise for them to punt on 2014 and aim for building "a fun exciting young contending team" in 2016. Should they have traded Shields for prospects?

Baltimore projected to win 79 games. Would it have been wise for them to punt in 2014 and aim to build "a fun exciting young contending team" in 2016.

Let's not overreact to the disappointment and bad taste left in our mouths over how 2014 ended for the Braves.

There are teams that should be punting on 2015. The list would include: Philadelphia, Houston, San Diego and maybe the White Sox and Twins. We are far from being in that category. Each season is precious. You give up on one only under compelling circumstances. I say this in part because it is foolish to think that even the best laid plans have any guarantee of success in 2017 or beyond.
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Absolutely not, but Baltimore and Kansas City are in a completely different situation they we are.....are they financially restrained by bad contracts (ie nearly 30% of budget to deadweight in BJ, Uggla, and CJ), and opening a new stadium and a minor league system that is pretty bare?

Yes, I no doubt agree, if Hart and Co. make a few shrewd moves and patchwork the thing we may very well win the World Series next year if nearly everything goes our way, along with about a dozen other teams. But how often does luck play on our side? Hardly never.

Even if we win the World Series in 2015 and lose both Heyward and Upton after the season, with the new stadium in the works and not putting a contender on the team for it's opening, would potentially devestating and could set this franchise in a tailspin for the next decade and we could be looking at a situation similiar to what Baltimore or Kansas City in which we will be a struggling franchise failing to put a competitive product on the field.

I'm not advocating a tear it down and rebuild approach but it may be in our best interests if we feel that we by all accounts don't have a chance to keep Heyward or Upton. I don't want to lose them either, especially Heyward, but if we can't get a deal done this offseason that fits into our financial framework and we can get a good haul, we have to strongly consider it. It's the situation we are put in being a mid market team. Unfortunately our previous general manager hampered our flexibility going forward to address these issues and spent money like a drunk sailor overpaying on BJ and going too long on Uggla and not looking at the big picture. If we didn't have all of this money allocated to dead weight on the roster, things would look so much better staying competitive in the short term when you take into consideration our young nucleus of players that have arrived on the major league scene over the past 4-5 years all the while building a potential "super team" and dynasty for the opening of the new stadium.
 
Millwood1Hitter said:
Absolutely not, but Baltimore and Kansas City are in a completely different situation they we are.....are they financially restrained by bad contracts (ie nearly 30% of budget to deadweight in BJ, Uggla, and CJ), and opening a new stadium and a minor league system that is pretty bare?

Yes, I no doubt agree, if Hart and Co. make a few shrewd moves and patchwork the thing we may very well win the World Series next year if nearly everything goes our way, along with about a dozen other teams. But how often does luck play on our side? Hardly never.

Even if we win the World Series in 2015 and lose both Heyward and Upton after the season, with the new stadium in the works and not putting a contender on the team for it's opening, would potentially devestating and could set this franchise in a tailspin for the next decade and we could be looking at a situation similiar to what Baltimore or Kansas City in which we will be a struggling franchise failing to put a competitive product on the field.
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Well it is true that the new stadium is a distinguishing characteristic of ours. However, the other factors you mention apply to quite a few teams from year to year. Bad contracts and a weak farm system. I believe that would be the Angels heading into 2014. Should they have punted? The Brewers also had quite a weak farm system going into 2014 (and btw suffered a collapse similar to ours). They had the Weeks contract to deal with. Should they have punted in 2014. Should they punt in 2015. The Reds are going to lose most of their starting pitching via free agency after 2015. Should they punt? A lot of teams have issues similar to ours.

But yes we are the only one with a new stadium on the horizon. If you want to hang your hat on that argument, I have no counter.
 
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