BremanFan88
Playing the Waiting Game
What exactly hasn't Heyward figured out? Great walk percentage and doesn't strikeout a lot. I guess this 25 year old guy should just take his above average offense and retire. Zero chance to become even better.
Braves Trade Heyward, Walden to Cardinals for Miller and Tyrell Jenkins
- Thread starter MadduxFanII
- Start date
What exactly hasn't Heyward figured out? Great walk percentage and doesn't strikeout a lot. I guess this 25 year old guy should just take his above average offense and retire. Zero chance to become even better.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
don't believe JHey. The fox article said 25 million a year. I think he probably made it known he wanted market value or close to it.
braves clearly couldn't or wouldn't pay 20+ million a year for defense and above avg OBP in RF.
braves clearly couldn't or wouldn't pay 20+ million a year for defense and above avg OBP in RF.
I don't think Heyward would come out and bold faced lie about it. If he did refuse a deal that the Braves offered what point would it serve to come out and say he was never offered a long term deal? Someone is not telling the truth and I would bet it's the good ole boys club.
CrimsonCowboy
Moderator
It may be a mere coincidence, but ironic timing that the trade happens on the day the Marlins and Giancarlo Stanton agree to what may very well be the worst contract in MLB history. That deal jacked up the price on every young hitter like a Jason Heyward.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
It seems like he wanted to be with the Braves, yeah as long as the offer was right.
Sure.
OPS is irrelevant. An 850 OPS is not the same as it was 15 years ago. Only 8 OFers last year had an OPS 850 or higher. That is close to what an average OFer was doing 15 years ago. That said I do think Heyward right now is a consistent WRC+ 120 guy with the potential to be higher then that. That said, a WRC+ 120 guy with elite defense is extremely valuable and worth a lot of money.
Heyward will not be elite defensievly for much longer. THe first few years of his next contract are going to be great but unless he figures out how to become a better hitter its not going to be good in the latter half.
Let me ask you something. Would you have given Jason $25MM per year for say 6 to 7 years or longer, because that is what it is going to take to sign him?
I think everyone's just in denial because of how much we all love/respect Heyward as a person and love the way he plays the game. We were also all holding out hope he would still break out to the star he was supposed to be. Once the initial shock wears off and we're not as emotional about losing a loved player we'll all come to terms with the fact that this was a smart baseball move. Who knows what other offers were on the table...maybe there was a better deal maybe not. I think it was a difficult but smart move.
I'm assuming this is a joke. Otherwise, wow.
Braves and Heyward spoke last off-season on an extension. This is documented. Both sides exchanged numbers and Heyward ultimately settled on a 2 yr deal, making it very clear he was more interested in testing FA. You are fooling yourself if you think the Braves never offered an extension. May be they didn't offer this off-season. What does it matter? Heyward gonna magically change his mind to accept whatever offer was there last off-season?
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
How much do you think he signs for?
Tapate50
Well-known member
And what he was worth.
Yep. I mean like OPS+ better than simply OPS, but you get a pretty good judge either way with OPS.
Sad but true.
Heyward will easily get more than 20M per season. Let some other team pay for defensive WAR that isn't close to being a perfected measure.
Here is Bill James on Wins Above Replacement, perhaps the hottest advanced statistic in the game right now:
"Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t.
"But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and ... they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but ... we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are."
So basically, even Bill James says to not take WAR overly seriously. Heyward is not worth his WAR. I'm fine with another team paying him 25 per year. Now if he wanted to stay at Freemans deal then by all means we should have kept him.
Here is Bill James on Wins Above Replacement, perhaps the hottest advanced statistic in the game right now:
"Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t.
"But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and ... they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but ... we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are."
So basically, even Bill James says to not take WAR overly seriously. Heyward is not worth his WAR. I'm fine with another team paying him 25 per year. Now if he wanted to stay at Freemans deal then by all means we should have kept him.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Yes, I use actual runs scored to measure past performance. FIP is a prediction tool but games are won and lost based on the actual score, not what FIP thinks the score should have been.