AJC: Braves Could Go Into Rebuild Mode, Aim Toward 2017

nsacpi said:
When you look at some of the recent teams who have made and even won the World Series, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that any team that starts out the season with a 30 WAR (which works out to about 78 wins) or better projection has a "legit shot." It is a fairly easy call that if you are a 25 WAR or worse team you should dump players who don't figure in your long term plans. But any team that projects 30 WAR or better should be trying to improve in order to win a ticket to this year's lottery.

Here's a link to an article about pre-season 2014 projections for major league teams:

http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/2014-mlb-win-total-projections

Kansas City projected to win 80 games. Would it have been wise for them to punt on 2014 and aim for building "a fun exciting young contending team" in 2016. Should they have traded Shields for prospects?

Baltimore projected to win 79 games. Would it have been wise for them to punt in 2014 and aim to build "a fun exciting young contending team" in 2016.

Let's not overreact to the disappointment and bad taste left in our mouths over how 2014 ended for the Braves.

There are teams that should be punting on 2015. The list would include: Philadelphia, Houston, San Diego and maybe the White Sox and Twins. We are far from being in that category. Each season is precious. You give up on one only under compelling circumstances. I say this in part because it is foolish to think that even the best laid plans have any guarantee of success in 2017 or beyond.
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Maybe I'm oversimplifying it but doesn't that just mean those projections were total bunk?
 
Tapate50 said:
Maybe I'm oversimplifying it but doesn't that just mean those projections were total bunk?
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Not really. There is something called forecasting error. Doesn't mean that forecasts are useless. We need to understand things like the standard error of the forecasts in question. What that kind of information tells us is that a team that projects to win 75 games is in a much different situation from one that projects to win 80 games.
 
nsacpi said:
Well it is true that the new stadium is a distinguishing characteristic of ours. However, the other factors you mention apply to quite a few teams from year to year. Bad contracts and a weak farm system. I believe that would be the Angels heading into 2014. Should they have punted? The Brewers also had quite a weak farm system going into 2014 (and btw suffered a collapse similar to ours). They had the Weeks contract to deal with. Should they have punted in 2014. Should they punt in 2015. The Reds are going to lose most of their starting pitching via free agency after 2015. Should they punt? A lot of teams have issues similar to ours.

But yes we are the only one with a new stadium on the horizon. If you want to hang your hat on that argument, I have no counter.
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Read my add on to my previous post.

And those teams that you just mentioned are in a completely different situation. The Angels are a large market team and can absorb bad contracts much better than say mid market team like the Braves. Despite being competitive, the Brewers will have some tough choices to make as they didn't win anything this year despite being in the race and the outlook is pretty bleak and their window is basically closed when you take into consideration their once young nucleus that was suppose to lead them to the promised land is aging or either moved on. The Reds sound like they might punt, and are making a number of their starters available this offseason to potentially reload and make one last run in the future while Votto still is in his prime.

Things would be so so so much better if Wren didn't make the BJ commitment. I can forgive him for the Uggla deal as I thought it was one year too long but in the grand scheme of things, even if it was, it was manageable. I still don't understand the CJ deal.

Wren pigeonholed us, if it wasn't for those big financial commitment mistakes on the part of Wren, with this core, I would not be outlandish in saying the next 3-5 years could have potentially some of the best years in Braves history with some schrewd moves.

Everyone wants to relive the Turner days and mid 90's, and act like the Braves were some mega market team that spent huge money on FA's. We weren't the Yankees of the late 90's. While we we're a larger market team, the driving force behind all of that success was depth and development. We added some big name players throughout the years (Maddux, McGriff, Galarraga, Sheffield, Jordan, Neagle, etc.) to compliment our core that we primarily developed (Glavine, Avery, Smoltz, Chipper, Andruw, Justice, Gant, Lopez, Furcal) and developed a number of players to fill potential needs for cheap (Klesko, Furcal, Millwood, Lemke, Blauser, etc.)

But even then, I didn't consider us a big player in the FA game, most bigger name players outside of our developed core we're acquired in the form of a trade or a schuffling of funds to acquire a bigger name player to fill a need (ie Justice for Lofton to be able to keep Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz) or trading a Neagle & Tucker to in turn acquire Boone and Jordan or upgrading from Jordan to Sheffield.
 
Millwood1Hitter said:
Read my add on to my previous post.

And those teams that you just mentioned are in a completely different situation. The Angels are a large market team and can absorb bad contracts much better than say mid market team like the Braves. Despite being competitive, the Brewers will have some tough choices to make as they didn't win anything this year despite being in the race and the outlook is pretty bleak and their window is basically closed when you take into consideration their once young nucleus that was suppose to lead them to the promised land is aging or either moved on. The Reds sound like they might punt, and are making a number of their starters available this offseason to potentially reload and make one last run in the future while Votto still is in his prime.
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I agree that we are a smaller budget team than the Angels and that this does have implications. The same reasoning applies to other teams that have smaller budgets, such as KC, Milwaukee, the Reds and so forth. But it is always possible to find one unique combination of circumstances for each team. We are unique. So it is always possible to construct an argument that argues we should do X given our unique circumstances. So now I know the what a team should do when it has a new stadium on the horizon, plus has a significant amount of deadweight contracts, plus has some key players near free agency and has a below average farm system. Btw does it matter at all given those circumstances whether the team as currently constructed projects to win 70 or 80 or 90 games?
 
nsacpi said:
Not really. There is something called forecasting error. Doesn't mean that forecasts are useless. We need to understand things like the standard error of the forecasts in question. What that kind of information tells us is that a team that projects to win 75 games is in a much different situation from one that projects to win 80 games.
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\NM

The Orioles had the Yankees and Red Sox both having the bottom fall out of their rosters and that explains a bit of the Baltimore resurgence. We don't have that luxury though. We have the Mets and Marlins on the upswing rather than downturn.
 
Tapate50 said:
Hmm... I guess I just question how accurate that really is and if you should really base something as important as rebuilding on it. Probably not is the answer I get.

The Orioles had the Yankees and Red Sox both having the bottom fall out of their rosters and that explains a bit of the Baltimore resurgence. We don't have that luxury though. We have the Mets and Marlins on the upswing rather than downturn.
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Ex ante, I would have been more concerned about the Red Sox and Yankees (not to mention the Rays who were projected to be a very strong team) heading into 2014 than the Mets and Marlins going into 2015. But hindsight has a way of altering how we see things.
 
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I would not be at all surprised if this is the first domino to fall. Maybe Justin would be more inclined to leave now if we ship BJ out as he wants to play for someone he knows has a shot to compete. I'm not sure how they plan on competing in 2015, if they still do, because I feel we're betting on less talented players.
 
Hey we are going to rebuild

But keep a high paid closer for no apparent reason that is untouchable

Where is the stupid ****ing mod bitching about my rants/thoughts on our front office right?

Cause **** you too
 
Baseball is a funny sport. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually score more runs this year. I don't think it's unreasonable to think CJ hits around his career average or that Andrelton can repeat his 2013 season. Freeman seemed poised for a big breakout year and I still think he can be that .300/.400/.500 hitter. Peraza could be a spark plug at the top of the lineup. Gattis could become a better hitter without the strain catching puts on his body and he could become a serviceable defender with more experience. The bench has no where to go but up.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Baseball is a funny sport. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually score more runs this year. I don't think it's unreasonable to think CJ hits around his career average or that Andrelton can repeat his 2013 season. Freeman seemed poised for a big breakout year and I still think he can be that .300/.400/.500 hitter. Peraza could be a spark plug at the top of the lineup. Gattis could become a better hitter without the strain catching puts on his body and he could become a serviceable defender with more experience. The bench has no where to go but up.
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If by up, you mean into the starting lineup, then yes.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Baseball is a funny sport. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually score more runs this year. I don't think it's unreasonable to think CJ hits around his career average or that Andrelton can repeat his 2013 season. Freeman seemed poised for a big breakout year and I still think he can be that .300/.400/.500 hitter. Peraza could be a spark plug at the top of the lineup. Gattis could become a better hitter without the strain catching puts on his body and he could become a serviceable defender with more experience. The bench has no where to go but up.
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Sure: It's all Panglossian up in here now that Heyward's gone!
 
blueagleace1 said:
I'm going to play GM for a second and show why I think it’s important to trade Heyward and Upton this offseason. I’ll give a detailed outlook that could present itself:

It's obvious that the Braves need to field a competitive team come 2017 when they move into SunTrust Park for sake of the next 20+ years and the revenue that will follow. I think the word "Rebuild" is a little strong and the word "Retool" is what will happen.

We already have a strong group of core players that we can build around and whom will still be under contract in 2017. These include the following (as well as a few prospects who should be ready to contribute): Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Wood, Mike Minor, Evan Gattis, Christain Bethancourt, Jose Peraza, Lucas Sims, and Jason Hursh.

Below I am not trying to predict the exact trades/signings that will happen, instead I am trying to show the TYPES of trades/signings that could happen as well as showing that by trading Upton and Heyward it could be very beneficial in multiple ways.

Now with the following moves we can really set ourselves to win in 2017 and beyond...

1. Trade Justin Upton, Juan Jamie, Gus Schlosser and Edward Salcedo to the Seattle Mariners for Taijuan Walker, D.J Peterson, and Victor Sanchez- This would give us another legitimate starting pitcher and possible ace to go along with Teheran and Wood at the top of the rotation, along with Peterson who would become our 3B of the future, and finally another starter who projects as a #3/#4 type pitcher.

2. Trade Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for Carlos Martinez, Stephen Piscotty, and Rob Kaminsky- This deal would net us the hard throwing Martinez who could instantly slot into the rotation, Piscotty who would replace Heyward as our everyday RF, and Kaminsky who is another highly regarded LH pitching prospect.

With the two trades above, they not only instantly replenish our depleted farm system but they also make our farm system one of the better ones in all of baseball. We go from having no real prospects besides Peraza to having numerous top prospects, most of which are MLB ready guys like Walker, Martinez, Peterson, and Piscotty. Finally, it gives us some salary relief which will come out to a total of approximately $26 million ($14.5 million for Upton, $8.3 million for Heyward, and $3.2 million for Walden).

3. Come 2016, one year from when we want to really field a competitive team, when Dan Uggla's salary comes off our books, and when the starting pitcher market is full of quality options (Cueto, Fister, Iwakuma, Price, Samardija, and Zimmerman) we will have the resources (Upton/Heyward/Uggla salaries) to sign the ace we never had who can lead our revamped staff in 2017. For sake of this discussion I will say we sign David Price.

During the off-season's before we move into SunTrust Park we will have the increased revenue to go along with the increase in impactful prospects to go out sign and/or trade for whatever we need to put our ball club over the top. Again for sake of discussion we will say we are going to need a LF and CF. So here's what I would do, (it's very hard to project what FA will be available and at what level guys are still producing at, but for fun):

1. Trade B.J Upton, David Carpenter and Tommy La Stella to whichever team is willing to give us the most in terms of CASH or prospects (assuming we have to attach Carpenter and La Stella to make it worthwhile for teams)

2. Sign Carlos Gomez, who will become a FA in 2017 to play CF.

3. Trade Mike Minor, Evan Gattis and Luis Avilan to the Cleveland Indians for Michael Brantley, Cody Allen, and Francisco Mejia. We would have Brantley to play LF, Cody Allen to help set-up Kimbrel, and Mejia would give us another catching prospect.

4. Trade for Jake McGee- Something along the lines of Cody Martin and Tyler Pastornicky should get it done.

I am not saying any of this will happen, but these are certainly similar to the moves that could take place. I am saying this is the kind of progression that could take place if we decide to "Retool" this year before Heyward and Upton can leave via FA.

With the moves above our roster and 2017 Opening Day lineup could look something like this:

Rotation:

1. David Price- LHP

2. Julio Teheran- RHP

3. Taijuan Walker- RHP

4. Alex Wood- LHP

5. Carlos Martinez- RHP

Bullpen:

Long Relief- David Hale/Victor Sanchez RHP

Middle Relief- Anthony Varvaro RHP

Middle Relief/LOOGY- Chasen Shreve LHP

Middle Relief- Shae Simmons RHP

Setup- Cody Allen RHP

Setup- Jake McGee LHP

Closer- Craig Kimbrel RHP

Lineup:

1. Jose Peraza- 2nd Base

2. Michael Brantley- Left Field

3. Carlos Gomez- Center Field

4. Freddie Freeman- 1st Base

5. D.J Peterson- 3rd Base

6. Stephen Piscotty- Right Field

7. Christain Bethancourt- Catcher

8. Andrelton Simmons- Shortstop

Bench:

1. Elmer Reyes- SS/2B

2. Todd Cunningham- OF

3. Kyle Kubitza/Joey Terdoslavich- 3B/(OF)

4. Alex Avila/Kurt Suzuki/Jarrod Saltalamacchia- Catcher

5. Phil Gosselin- 2B/3B/SS/OF

= Switch

= Lefty

I truly believe this would be a very good team that would be capable of staying competitive for many years. The rotation and bullpen would be our strongest asset and would be one of the better staffs in all of MLB. Offensively we wouldn't hit as many homers as in years past but we would get on base at a high clip, steal a bunch of bases, and would have as strong as defensive team as there is. Also, like John Hart mentioned earlier in the week, we would have very good depth at starting pitcher with guys like Lucas Sims, Jason Hursh, Robert Kaminsky, Victor Sanchez, and Mauricio Cabrera all in the minors and capable of stepping in should a need arise. I would certainly enjoy watching this club for many years!

Go Bravos and in John Hart We Trust!!!
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Not to toot my own horn but.....
 
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