The Virtues and Necessity of Short-Term Thinking

I look at the Giants and I wonder how they are better than us. I think I got it, they just have slightly above average hitters in every spot. The only starting position player with an OBP above .345 is the catcher but every player with the exception of Belt had a .320-.340 OBP. We gave 1700 at bats to 3 players who combined for an OBP under .290. Long story short, we need competent hitters throughout the lineup instead of a few good hitters and a few black holes.
 
I look at the Giants and I wonder how they are better than us. I think I got it, they just have slightly above average hitters in every spot. The only starting position player with an OBP above .345 is the catcher but every player with the exception of Belt had a .320-.340 OBP. We gave 1700 at bats to 3 players who combined for an OBP under .290. Long story short, we need competent hitters throughout the lineup instead of a few good hitters and a few black holes.

They also have a much better manager. Which can make a big difference come playoffs.
 
I look at the Giants and I wonder how they are better than us. I think I got it, they just have slightly above average hitters in every spot. The only starting position player with an OBP above .345 is the catcher but every player with the exception of Belt had a .320-.340 OBP. We gave 1700 at bats to 3 players who combined for an OBP under .290. Long story short, we need competent hitters throughout the lineup instead of a few good hitters and a few black holes.

I was with you til that racist ending.
 
I look at the Giants and I wonder how they are better than us. I think I got it, they just have slightly above average hitters in every spot. The only starting position player with an OBP above .345 is the catcher but every player with the exception of Belt had a .320-.340 OBP. We gave 1700 at bats to 3 players who combined for an OBP under .290. Long story short, we need competent hitters throughout the lineup instead of a few good hitters and a few black holes.

Amen. We have good pitching. Let's get some guys who can get on base and don't strike out 140 times.
 
why wouldn't he have been trying to tie up Heyward too? He wanted more than Freddie. Freddie's a better player. I don't think for a second the Braves could have extented Heyward.

My comments a year ago were that they would've wanted to see Heyward put together that superstar-level season, which was projected of him, since his rookie year, and to stay off the DL. Heyward's camp probably gave indications that exploring free agency would eventually be in their plan. Hence, the 2-year contract. Freeman already had an MVP-caliber season.
 
MFII, I think you've written a well-conceived and logical piece. Braves are in a ticklish situation and I still lay most of that at Wren's feet and the decimation of the farm system on his watch, not necessarily through trades but through an inability to produce quality depth throughout the system. He hit on some of the premier picks, but the depth in the system now is horrible. Outside of Peraza, I can't think of an offensive player who projects as even an average bat above Class A right now. Given that fact, maybe patching the holes around the edges and going for one last playoff run was warranted and the new regime is wrong to pursue the direction that has been taken. That said, I think it is more likely that we exceeded expectations in 2013 than falling woefully short of expectations in 2014. Things really fell together in 2013 and the Nats flat-out stunk. I think we are better than what we showed in 2014, but the M. Upton/C. Johnson tandem along with underperformance from Simmons with the bat really hurt us. I don't think we could have pitched much better in 2014 than we did.

I've watched the Twins up here in Minnesota for years and I think the Braves' franchise is starting to resemble it. Twins had a nice run when Mauer and Morneau came up together, but Mauer's contract is sucking up a ton of payroll and their minor league system was largely bereft of impact talent before the arrival of Sano (who was injured all season) and Buxton (who was injured most of the season and again in the Arizona Fall League). That should give one pause about depending too much on the farm. Twins do have a stable of major league ready arms who should boost their performance a bit in 2015, but they have stunk for the past four seasons.

I rag on Wren more than most here. I'll admit he did some good things. Won most of his trades. Helped assemble some interesting teams. Made some good moves around the edges to complement the core. BUT, he spent money like a drunken sailor on a couple of cheap trinkets and when you do that on what appears to be a limited payroll, it really constricts your margin for error. I still contend the biggest problem is the lack of hitting talent in the system right now, which makes those mistakes even harder to follow.

I don't know what happens the rest of the winter. I wouldn't say I'm totally convinced that Heyward wouldn't have signed a new contract if offered enough although all the evidence seems to indicate he and his agent wanted to hit the open market. It would have been a helluva lot easier to sign him if we didn't have money sunk into Melvin Upton and Chris Johnson.

Going forward, all I ask for is a blueprint. Heck, half of you guys weren't alive when Bobby Cox took over as GM in the mid-1980s and along with Paul Snyder established a plan to build the franchise from the bottom up. Good drafts. Hard work in Latin America. Investment in minor league coaching. Now granted, the big league teams of the late-1980s were horrifyingly bad in just about every way one can imagine (if you don't believe me, look at the rosters from that era), but slowly, Gant, Justice, Lemke, Blauser, and others began to filter up through the system to create the core for the early-1990s teams. The one thing that may be instructive is that Cox was extremely slow in moving Dale Murphy and in the end got next to nothing for him in trade. Any comparison of Murphy at that point in his career with Heyward now is ridiculous because Murphy was declining rapidly at that point, but Bobby couldn't pull the trigger. It remains to be seen whether or not the Miller/Jenkins return on Heyward/Walden is better than an extra pick or not.

But there needs to both a blueprint and patience. I didn't like seeing Heyward dealt because I think it was an impatient move, regardless of whether or not it was a logical move. Moving J. Upton too quickly would also signal impatience. I never thought Wren had a blueprint and those who replaced him need to have one or we'll be wandering the baseball wilderness for a long time, new stadium or not. I agree with rico that it's too early to judge the entire post-season and it's way too early to judge whether or not a stadium will do anything to help the long-term financial situation enough to make us players for top-tier free agents. Again, I worry that we'll become like the Twins in that the new stadium padded the owners' pocketbooks, but has done precious little to contribute to the performance of the team.

I've been cheering for the team since the late-1950s (damn you Aunt Lois for throwing my 1960 Hank Aaron card in the trash when I forgot it at your house), so nothing is going to change on my end. Sure hope we don't see a return to the late-1980s on the big league team however.

Well said by all. I don't want to discount anyone's concerns because there is legitimate cause for concern. I don't think this off-season will produce a death sentence, but it could be a harbinger of ill times if there is a collection of odd, totally off-the-wall moves.
 
Ive heard the whole "The Braves front office/brass knows what they are doing, you basement stat geeeks are dumb" spiel for so many years. It feels like deja vu right now. The reality is ever since JS's infamous "The economics of baseball stink" the Braves front office has proven that they cant provide sustained success with limited pocketbooks and the limited pocketbooks arent going to get any bigger any time soon.
 
Ive heard the whole "The Braves front office/brass knows what they are doing, you basement stat geeeks are dumb" spiel for so many years. It feels like deja vu right now. The reality is ever since JS's infamous "The economics of baseball stink" the Braves front office has proven that they cant provide sustained success with limited pocketbooks and the limited pocketbooks arent going to get any bigger any time soon.

PC, I don't necessarily disagree, but it's Frank Wren who alternately listened to the stat geeks--your term not mine-- once (Uggla) and totally ignored them once (M. Upton) in the two moves that have largely defined where we are currently at as a franchise. It's Wren who gave Jeff Francoeur Part Deux (alias Chris Johnson) an ill-deserved extension. The guys who have inherited the reins are dealing with that reality.
 
PC, I don't necessarily disagree, but it's Frank Wren who alternately listened to the stat geeks--your term not mine-- once (Uggla) and totally ignored them once (M. Upton) in the two moves that have largely defined where we are currently at as a franchise. It's Wren who gave Jeff Francoeur Part Deux (alias Chris Johnson) an ill-deserved extension. The guys who have inherited the reins are dealing with that reality.

I personally had no issues with the Uggla trade, its the extension that was arguable. Hindsight is 20 20 always of course.
 
I personally had no issues with the Uggla trade, its the extension that was arguable. Hindsight is 20 20 always of course.

I'm in agreement. Wren just rolled the dice twice and somehow managed to lose both times when one (Uggla) looked to be a pretty decent investment. I never could fathom the Melvin Upton deal. But the real point is not the AAV of the contracts. It was always the length of the contracts. Just short-sighted moves. If there is one element of the whole Moneyball thing that everyone should have learned (but almost all seem to have forgotten) is that if you are on a tight budget, long-term commitments matter more than short-term commitments.

Everyone likes snapshots, but then forget that we live in a movie.
 
Going forward, all I ask for is a blueprint. Heck, half of you guys weren't alive when Bobby Cox took over as GM in the mid-1980s and along with Paul Snyder established a plan to build the franchise from the bottom up. Good drafts. Hard work in Latin America. Investment in minor league coaching. Now granted, the big league teams of the late-1980s were horrifyingly bad in just about every way one can imagine (if you don't believe me, look at the rosters from that era), but slowly, Gant, Justice, Lemke, Blauser, and others began to filter up through the system to create the core for the early-1990s teams. The one thing that may be instructive is that Cox was extremely slow in moving Dale Murphy and in the end got next to nothing for him in trade. Any comparison of Murphy at that point in his career with Heyward now is ridiculous because Murphy was declining rapidly at that point, but Bobby couldn't pull the trigger. It remains to be seen whether or not the Miller/Jenkins return on Heyward/Walden is better than an extra pick or not.

Cox couldn't have gone wrong either way if he'd have accepted either offer from the Padres or the Mets. SD offered both Alomar brothers + John Kruk. NYM offered Howard Johnson, Lenny Dykstra and Rick Aguilera. The latter might've been better over the short-term by addressing immediate needs at CF, 3B and closer (to be fair, Aguilera hadn't been converted to closer until he got to Minnesota). As has been posted by me enough times here and at Scout, Cox insisted on David West. It was a miscalculation, as the Braves were already stocked with young pitching with Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Mercker, Greene, Pete Smith, Lilliquist and probably another name or two who escapes me at the moment. With what the Pods were parting with, Roberto Alomar, alone, would have been worth the deal.

We also have to consider that Cox was not an experienced GM, and there likely was extreme hesitance at trading a franchise icon. As you mentioned, so many posters here either weren't born or aren't old enough to remember. That's why it's so ridiculous when there are these man-crushes on Andruw Jones, Kelly Johnson, Tommy LaStella or Heyward. AJ and Heyward certainly had their attributes, but were no where near the level that Murph was during the early 80's. We're talking among the most feared hitters in the game.

We can't even begin to accurately assess the Heyward deal until, at least, a year from now. Let's see how Shelby Miller shakes out. Then, let's see if Heyward applies for free agency. Tyrell Jenkins could turn out very well too.

Just to add, it seems that they actually are following this same blueprint from the mid 80's to early 90's. That was stockpiling young pitching. This is the direct result of Cox's consulting functions. You have enough young pitching, some of them will develop with the club and others will be used to trade for other assets.
 
Ive heard the whole "The Braves front office/brass knows what they are doing, you basement stat geeeks are dumb" spiel for so many years.

Well, there were a few gasbags over at Scout, who posted such gems as:

"Kelly Johnson 1.000 OPS!"

"Andy Marte - a decade of Gold Gloves with Mike Schmidt power!"
 
Haha, yeah, and the butthurt around Scout when Marte was traded was seriously rampant.

To be fair, everybody wanted to see Marte turn out. I, and another poster, had actually seen him play in person at AAA. My comment was that conditioning could be an issue with him. The OP (sorry, forgot who it was) noticed a hole in the swing. The so-called "stat geeks" completely ignored our reports. As it was with Shanks, everything always had to be framed as a "stathead vs. scouthead," as if statistical analysis and scouting couldn't co-exist (never mind that Schuerholtz wrote in his book that they use both).
 
Having a hard time remembering but seems like it was much worse than the Heyward trade, right?

Non-tendering Kelly resulted in several threats of wrist slashing. The greatest of all love was reserved for Utley lite.
 
Having a hard time remembering but seems like it was much worse than the Heyward trade, right?

I think the tensions were exacerbated by the whole 'scouts vs. statheads' tug-of-war that Knucksie mentions, but yeah, it was definitely knives out for a week or so.
 
PC, I don't necessarily disagree, but it's Frank Wren who alternately listened to the stat geeks--your term not mine-- once (Uggla) and totally ignored them once (M. Upton) in the two moves that have largely defined where we are currently at as a franchise. It's Wren who gave Jeff Francoeur Part Deux (alias Chris Johnson) an ill-deserved extension. The guys who have inherited the reins are dealing with that reality.

Actually neither of those moves (well maybe the Uggla trade, but not the extension) have stathead written on them. ANd Chris Johnson is what Francoeur wishes he was when he became a Punch and Judy hitter.
 
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