Upton - Flawed Original Premise?

GovClintonTyree

GovClintonTyree

<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
So I got to thinking about Justin and the reason he's aggressively being shopped, what with us having one year of control and all, and that we'd only have him for one more year, etc.

Then I was thinking about the "let's just get a couple more guys and go play" argument, which was acknowledged by Hart himself as a strong possibility.

And I got to thinking about our new revenue stream and Uggla coming off the books the same time Justin expires, and I was thinking...is it really impossible to extent Justin?

He's only 27. Could we do, say, 6-$132m, something with an AAV of $22-23m, and continue to develop inexpensive pitching, which we seem to do better than developing position players? He's a consistent RH power hitter.

I'm sure we've done our due diligence here and assured ourselves the likelihood of signing him is slim, but I just got to thinking.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
So I got to thinking about Justin and the reason he's aggressively being shopped, what with us having one year of control and all, and that we'd only have him for one more year, etc.

Then I was thinking about the "let's just get a couple more guys and go play" argument, which was acknowledged by Hart himself as a strong possibility.

And I got to thinking about our new revenue stream and Uggla coming off the books the same time Justin expires, and I was thinking...is it really impossible to extent Justin?

He's only 27. Could we do, say, 6-$132m, something with an AAV of $22-23m, and continue to develop inexpensive pitching, which we seem to do better than developing position players? He's a consistent RH power hitter.

I'm sure we've done our due diligence here and assured ourselves the likelihood of signing him is slim, but I just got to thinking.
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I'm with you to some extent, except I would have kept Heyward and traded J. Upton. I think the return on J. Upton is/would be higher than it was for Heyward. Heyward has a better all-around game and could be more likely to sign a long term deal (unless there is something we don't know about how negotiations are going/have gone with both of these guys). I don't think the return on Heyward was terrible, but I worry about the impatience with which the move was done.
 
I would absolutely love to keep Justin around long term. I suspect they will try trade him during the off season, but ultimately will not. We will try to put together a decent team in 2015 and end up trading Justin before the deadline.
 
Metaphysicist said:
I don't see why the Braves would pay Upton market value. I don't see why he'd take less.
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He likes it here? He feels some connection to the city? It's not that much under market? His brother has been stealing from us, he feels guilty, he'd like to give a little back on behalf on his family?
 
There is no evidence Justin likes it here. In fact, with the way the team went last year, I doubt any of the players are happy here RIGHT NOW.
 
It's always seemed a bit odd to me - but telling at the same time - that there isn't much scuttlebutt coming from the FO or the local beat writers on the Braves having a desire to extend Justin. He didn't seem to be under heavy consideration during last year's extension-mania and it seemed there was always more written about extending Jason than extending Justin. Perhaps I'm just imagining this, but that's my perspective. Could be that they didn't view him as a "Braves Way" guy when it comes to leadership, grit and the like. Possibly on-the-field concerns too: marginal defense, hot and cold offensive production,
 
dak said:
It's always seemed a bit odd to me - but telling at the same time - that there isn't much scuttlebutt coming from the FO or the local beat writers on the Braves having a desire to extend Justin. He didn't seem to be under heavy consideration during last year's extension-mania and it seemed there was always more written about extending Jason than extending Justin. Perhaps I'm just imagining this, but that's my perspective. Could be that they didn't view him as a "Braves Way" guy when it comes to leadership, grit and the like. Possibly on-the-field concerns too: marginal defense, hot and cold offensive production,
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Plus the local angle with Heyward.
 
dak said:
It's always seemed a bit odd to me - but telling at the same time - that there isn't much scuttlebutt coming from the FO or the local beat writers on the Braves having a desire to extend Justin. He didn't seem to be under heavy consideration during last year's extension-mania and it seemed there was always more written about extending Jason than extending Justin. Perhaps I'm just imagining this, but that's my perspective. Could be that they didn't view him as a "Braves Way" guy when it comes to leadership, grit and the like. Possibly on-the-field concerns too: marginal defense, hot and cold offensive production,
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3 main concerns come to mind with Justin:

1) Offensively he is very inconsistant, he can go on 2+ week stretches where he looks like Gary Sheffield and single handedly can carry a team, but there are too often those stretches where he can't do squat and looks absolutely terrible. It's not unusual for even the best of hitters to go through hot and cold stretches, but Justin is to the extreme, and when he is bad he is bad....I mean how often during these stretches do we see him swing and miss at average fastballs right down the center of the plate....often...and that's not normal or indicitive of a great hitter nor someone that is going to sustain it...once he starts not living off of talent and bat speed, and his bat speed slows a little bit...then he those cold stretches become even of bigger concern.

2) Defensively he is average and has too many lapses in the field. Much like offensively, he is going off talent and fundamentally isn't sound....that isn't something that one feels very confident about going forward as he ages and looses talent.

3) His statue and build doesn't appear that it is going to age well...again see living off of talent. It isn't going to be too long where he will be a liability defensively and offensively there are concerns going foward as well. Will he be able to age and hold up enough through the entirety of his next contract is a concern.

*The fact of the matter is, both Upton brothers have lived off of talent and potential. They have been some of the most heralded and talked about prospects and young players at the MLB level, and neither one of them have been able to put it together and live up to their potential high ceilings....unfairly or not, it is what it is. And if BJ fell off a cliff like he has, is their any indications that Justin is going to sustain the productivity that he is giving right now going forward is a very good and legit question.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
He likes it here? He feels some connection to the city? It's not that much under market? His brother has been stealing from us, he feels guilty, he'd like to give a little back on behalf on his family?
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I don't see any evidence of any of that. Aside from the fraternal shame issue, these all sound like reasons Heyward might have taken a deal, but not Justin.
 
I know that the offseason is still going, but why do I feel like we're going to be the ugly kid at the prom. Date..yes....after party...not so much! In reality, I'm not willing to try to re-create a division winner next year just for the sake of doing so. I applaud the long term thinking and if we do it, I want to do it all the way.

At this point I do like the strong rotation emphasis...In a few years, if your core reaches it's potential and it begins with Teheran, Wood, Miller, Jenkins....you have the opportunity to build consistently excellent teams instead of the mindless drones that we trotted out there over the last few years.

I think it's a must to trade JUp and possibly Gattis...I think Minor is also in the conversation. I want to see a young hungry team, mixed with key veterans. That was an earmark of the good Braves teams.
 
dak said:
Could be that they didn't view him as a "Braves Way" guy when it comes to leadership, grit and the like. Possibly on-the-field concerns too: marginal defense, hot and cold offensive production,
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I don't believe that the Braves are as hardcore as the Kevin Towers/Kirk Gibson lead Diamondbacks were in this regard, but I think you are likely onto something. The team can really only afford to give 'franchise' level contracts to two or three guys and it's possible that while they may see Justin basically being worth the payout in terms of offensive production there may be other nagging concerns.
 
I think "Braves Way" is getting tossed around so much and it's really a vague term. I don't think it has to do that much with what is sought in individual players (except that they have major league talent) as opposed to re-building the farm system. Sure, it boils down to strong pitching and defense, but we had a wide variety of players on the teams in our strongest run.
 
It's a little bit awkward with Justin, considering that we're doing everything we can to trade his older brother.
 
weso1 said:
It's a little bit awkward with Justin, considering that we're doing everything we can to trade his older brother.
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agree. I can't see us signing him for 5 more years when we know we're trying to dump his brother. May see his brother as a scape goat.

I would say we don't want to pay ppl big money past 30 but we are supposedly looking at Lester so...
 
Russ2dollas said:
agree. I can't see us signing him for 5 more years when we know we're trying to dump his brother. May see his brother as a scape goat.

I would say we don't want to pay ppl big money past 30 but we are supposedly looking at Lester so...
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You know, they've never struck me as that close. And while I'm sure he loves his brother, I'm sure he knows he sucks. And surely he noticed that the Braves have given his brother every opportunity to snap out of it.
 
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