nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Sometimes a move doesn't accomplish what it was intended to. No one playing a game of chess sets themselves up to be checkmated in three moves. But it happens.
Braves sniffing around on Markakis; Official 4 years 44 million.
- Thread starter Hawk
- Start date
Sometimes a move doesn't accomplish what it was intended to. No one playing a game of chess sets themselves up to be checkmated in three moves. But it happens.
I don't see how letting a one year player go for future assets can be construed as anything but a move to not be set back in future years. If said player was not traded then the Braves have even less to work with in 2016.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
And yet they still could. And I feel signing Jason had less of a chance of setting us back, even if he didn't progress much more.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Or if they signed him. It is not a fact that he wouldn't take $22 mil, or that they wanted to go there with him.
Deester11
Well-known member
Everyone can debate. I'm a Brave fan through and through and I complain too. I'm just saying that the final construction is not complete. I hate a lot of things about some moves and I'm hoping for long term success. Fire away, but at the end of the day JHey is gone (I hate it), Markakis is here...don't have to like it but it is what it is.
Diesel
Spring Training Invitee
Shredding away all of the layers of debate, discourse, and metrics, I feel that Heyward is just not the type of offensive player that the Braves brass thought was wise to give some $200 mil to. I think it's safe to say that their experts and decision makers believe that to pay that kind of salary a player needs to be more of a run producer than they believe Heyward is or will become.
I'm inclined to agree with them, though it is hard to see my favorite player (and my sons' favorite player) wear a different jersey. It's tougher to lose those players as fan, who come up through your system and you grow attached to. In truth, Heyward is more of compliementary player that winning teams needs for success, but imo, he's not a consistent run producer.
I'm inclined to agree with them, though it is hard to see my favorite player (and my sons' favorite player) wear a different jersey. It's tougher to lose those players as fan, who come up through your system and you grow attached to. In truth, Heyward is more of compliementary player that winning teams needs for success, but imo, he's not a consistent run producer.
Heyward's contract would go beyond the field. He's homegrown and is probably the most popular brave amongst all demographics in Atlanta. He's the franchise player post Chipper and he should've been paid like one.
He's done everything the team has asked of him and more. I'd trade Kimbrel Freeman before I rid of Jason. They're replaceable. Heyward is not.
dak
Well-known member
I'm a fan of Dave Cameron's work, but I thought his oversimplified conclusion in this article was a bit shoddy. It's a big leap for him to imply that a major factor in the Braves decision to trade Heyward and sign Markakis is that they don't believe in defensive metrics. His analysis in the article is great, but the conclusion seems too broad given the underlying analysis.
I'm already preparing myself for the uproar when Hart touts Nick's gold-glove defense in the presser today. It's the type of thing we all know he has to say, but it does not confirm that Hart / Coppy lack an awareness of or an appreciation of defensive metrics.
Thay may be true. But if/when Hart does mention Nick's 'gold glove' ability I can't help but think back to when we traded for McLouth and he was coming off of a 'gold glove' season and was touted as just that.
I could be way off base but I honestly believe that Hart and Co think they found a player in Nick that's comparable to Jason at less than half the cost. And I believe that comparison is far from reality.
I think they believe it from an offensive persepective (and they may be right). Nobody, especially someone with the baseball experience of Hart, is going to truly believe that Markakis is comparable to Heyward defensively.
You'd be surprised. Nick did just win a gold glove. I gurantee you Joe Simpson will mention this during the 1st game of the year and say you won't be losing much defensively.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Thank you for reminding me how much of a twit our longest tenured announcer is. Jesus, can we rebuild the entire commentator team? If the team is going to suck this year, I at least shouldn't have to listen to the announcing suck too.
ramadon101
Danville Rookie
1) The Braves FO are not stupid. Everyone has the right to question their moves, timing, etc. but they aren't ignorant of advanced defensive metrics. Trust me. They have more proprietary data than FanGraphs does.
2) The Braves loved Jason Heyward. Top down, they loved him. I would trust that they know that Jason is a better fielder than Nick. There is a fundamental and substantial difference between front office executives/scouts and Joe Simpson (or the regular public).
3) Do some of you realize how much time and effort goes into preparing, drafting, negotiating, etc. a MLB contract? It's not like you press a button and it's done (especially for a 8-10 year long contract with bonus stipulations, conditions precedent, etc.) Do you realize that allocating internal time and resources to doing so when it's been made CLEAR by a player's agent that you aren't in the same zip code seems ridiculous? (at least to my somewhat rational self). It was self-evident that the Braves' valuation of Heyward and Close's valuation of Heyward were substantially different. Not. Close. Whatsoever.
4) Everyone has a right to be critical of moves, etc. but I think the far more prudent course of action is to take a wait and see approach.
'
5) On Markakis-- the Braves presumably saw value in a few areas (and I say "presumably" because I want to be clear I have not spoken to anyone in the FO since they signed Nick):
- he was not attached to a draft pick (if he was, they would not have signed him)
- there is value in durability and reliability, although difficult to quantify
- he's a lefty bat that is reasonable against LHP (unlike Colby Rasmus, who is a complete waste against LHP)
- he's exceptional at making contact, with 94.7% of his swings at pitches inside the zone resulting in contact and 84.8% of swings outside the zone resulting in contact.
- I suspect the Braves must think his abdominal muscle tear a few years ago and the aberrational season where he broke bones due to HBP must have sapped his power but that there is some potential for a reversion in that category (which would obviously add to his underlying value)
- he's a "bigger name" and the Braves - irrespective of whatever we may want to think - need someone they can market and "bridge" until 2017
- if you look at his batted ball profiles, he's largely impossible to shift against. He pulls with power to right but can spray line drives and ground balls to left and center.
Nick doesn't do anything at the superstar level, mind you, but we're not paying him like a superstar in this day and age. What he does do, however, is do a lot average or slightly above average and the cumulative effect has value to a team (or so the Braves FO thought). And whether many of you would like to believe it, Hart and co. are smarter at this than we are.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
John Hart has done nothing to earn my trust.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
First I want to thank you for sharing the information on this issue with us here. It has been extremely enlightening.
I'm trying to get a handle on how big the gap between the two parties might have been.
From your previous posts I'm guessing Jason's agent was talking $250M over ten years. And the Braves maybe were willing to go up to 22M/year (for his free agent years) and less years (maybe 5 free agent years). Or am I way off base here.
I love how some go at lengths to defend the front office. To me their overall body of work this offseason shows no clear plan.
And it's not just recently popular either. There are certain posters that defend everything they do and blindly believe it is correct.
Really? They converted a one year asset into two high ceiling assets they hold the rights to for 4/6 years. Signed a lessor replacement for the traded asset for 4 years at much less money and didn't give up a draft pick.
I think they don't want to suck really bad before they move into the new stadium while sill accumulating assets to be realy good when they move in. Sounds like a clear plan to me.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
There is a plan. But it seems to include keeping fingers crossed on how the lineup will do with Bethancourt, Melvin, CJ and Simmons holding down four of the starting positions. To me this situation is the main obstacle to the team being competitive, whether it be in 2015 or beyond. I'd like to see some alternatives added to the roster that could provide more hitting at some those positions. I realize there are months to go before the roster is finalized, so some of my criticisms might be premature.
Markakis for 4 years is a horrible idea. And I bet that most of the people thinking it's a good deal will be hating it by the time the new stadium opens. There are going to be some big time free agents available in the 2016 off season. Someone that would look great on the Braves to open the new stadium with. But not only will be stuck with Uptons contract in 2017 we will also be paying Markakis 11 million as well.
Sometimes you have to suck hard to truly get better. I don't agree with moving Heyward and Upton which is looks like they will do. But I understand it. Signing Markakis just doesn't fit. 4 years is way too long.