2017: A Braves Odyssey

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
In 2017 we move to a new park.

Also in 2017, Freddie Freeman's salary jumps from 12M to 20.5M, Craig Kimbrel's jumps from 11M to 13M, Julio Teheran's from 3.3M to 6.3M, Andrelton Simmons' from 6M to 8M, Chris Johnson's from 7.5M to 9M, and Melvin Upton from 15.45M to 16.45M.

The total guaranteed increase for those six players is 18M. I'm not saying that any of these increases are undeserved or unwise. But collectively they represent a "structural" impediment toward building a team that will peak in 2017.

I point this out because much has been made of the idea that the team needs to be "palatable" (John Hart's word) in 2015 and I presume 2016 with the implication that this is a necessary sacrifice for reaching the promised land in 2017.

There are no contracts coming off the books between 2016 and 2017. Payroll would have to jump 18M just to tread water. Actually, it would probably have to jump by more than that just to tread water because some of our cheaper younger players (notably Alex Wood and new acquisition Shelby Miller among others) will be getting more expensive from 2016 to 2017.

It is smart marketing to ask the fans to stay the course until the new stadium and its additional revenues allow us to be more competitive. I'm afraid the reality is that we'll be lucky to see payroll rise enough to pay for the raises already baked into contracts players have already signed.

In a structural sense our best window for competing should have actually been in the years before those 18M of raises kick in. It would appear that the building of the new stadium has worked to distort the lens through which management should be viewing this. The turnover in the front office has added to that distortion.
 
Are you accounting for Uggla to be off the books?

Plus payroll is going to go up in 2017- you can take that to the bank.
 
Uggla's contract comes off the books after 2015 (By the way, in my opening post I only discussed raises from 2016 to 2017. The six players I mentioned also get raises from 2015 to 2016 that are almost exactly covered by Uggla's expiring contract).

Justin Upton's contract also expires after 2015 but we will be hard pressed to replace his production for the same price.
 
One of the interesting aspects of the Justin Upton trade is that it does not in any way impact the point I was making about the built in "structural" salary increases for the players with contracts going through 2017 and beyond.

The size of the salary increases for those six players (18M in 2017, and 12M in 2016) along with some probable increases to some of the guys (Minor, Gattis, Miller, Wood, Carpenter) who will be getting arbitration raises the next couple years makes it unlikely that there will be significant new spending on outside players (except to the extent we move some of the current players who will be making significant money).

These financial constraints need not imply a bad outcome. But they do imply that our chances for contention in the next few years (2015-2017) will turn largely on what we now have in the system.

Beyond 2017 we will have some flexibility with the Melvin and CJ contracts expiring at that point.
 
nsacpi said:
One of the interesting aspects of the Justin Upton trade is that it does not in any way impact the point I was making about the built in "structural" salary increases for the players with contracts going through 2017 and beyond.

The size of the salary increases for those six players (18M in 2017, and 12M in 2016) along with some probable increases to some of the guys (Minor, Gattis, Miller, Wood, Carpenter) who will be getting arbitration raises the next couple years makes it unlikely that there will be significant new spending on outside players (except to the extent we move some of the current players who will be making significant money).

These financial constraints need not imply a bad outcome. But they do imply that our chances for contention in the next few years (2015-2017) will turn largely on what we now have in the system.

Beyond 2017 we will have some flexibility with the Melvin and CJ contracts expiring at that point.
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I have serious doubts that Minor or Carpenter will be on the roster in 2017. Contracts for new signees can be backloaded slightly to work around Johnson assuming he's still around, and there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever that ramadon's right in saying payroll will increase substantially between now and then - the Central Fund continues to grow by leaps and bounds, and the game will continue to be awash with cash as time creeps forward.
 
nsacpi said:
One of the interesting aspects of the Justin Upton trade is that it does not in any way impact the point I was making about the built in "structural" salary increases for the players with contracts going through 2017 and beyond.

The size of the salary increases for those six players (18M in 2017, and 12M in 2016) along with some probable increases to some of the guys (Minor, Gattis, Miller, Wood, Carpenter) who will be getting arbitration raises the next couple years makes it unlikely that there will be significant new spending on outside players (except to the extent we move some of the current players who will be making significant money).

These financial constraints need not imply a bad outcome. But they do imply that our chances for contention in the next few years (2015-2017) will turn largely on what we now have in the system.

Beyond 2017 we will have some flexibility with the Melvin and CJ contracts expiring at that point.
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Everything in return though is essentially a lottery ticket. I think you are underselling the potential impact a really good player making peanuts could do for the team.
 
clvclv said:
I have serious doubts that Minor or Carpenter will be on the roster in 2017. Contracts for new signees can be backloaded slightly to work around Johnson assuming he's still around, and there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever that ramadon's right in saying payroll will increase substantially between now and then - the Central Fund continues to grow by leaps and bounds, and the game will continue to be awash with cash as time creeps forward.
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Yeah, this is a great point. Professional Sports organizations are just making obscene amounts of money in today's internet consumption market. Everyone is connected to the internet all the time now with smartphones. To be able to provide non-stop new content to hundreds of millions of people is an INCREDIBLE revenue stream.
 
clvclv said:
I have serious doubts that Minor or Carpenter will be on the roster in 2017. Contracts for new signees can be backloaded slightly to work around Johnson assuming he's still around, and there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever that ramadon's right in saying payroll will increase substantially between now and then - the Central Fund continues to grow by leaps and bounds, and the game will continue to be awash with cash as time creeps forward.
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Moving guys like Minor or Gattis is one way to create some room to spend. I think doing that would create enough room to bring in a 20M/year type player in 2017 assuming a payroll of around 135M in 2017.

With the trades of Jason and Justin, there is a big need for a middle of the order bat who can play one of the corner outfield spots. I see that as a bigger need than an ace.

With Teheran, Minor, Wood, Miller, Sims we should have very strong rotation, with a good chance one of them turns out to be an ace. If some of our secondary pitching prospects (Jenkins, Hursh, Parsons) develop that would provide some insurance and possibly allow us to trade away some pitching.
 
nsacpi said:
Moving guys like Minor or Gattis is one way to create some room to spend. I think doing that would create enough room to bring in a 20M/year type player in 2017 assuming a payroll of around 135M in 2017.

With the trades of Jason and Justin, there is a big need for a middle of the order bat who can play one of the corner outfield spots. I see that as a bigger need than an ace.

With Teheran, Minor, Wood, Miller, Sims we should have very strong rotation, with a good chance one of them turns out to be an ace. If some of our secondary pitching prospects (Jenkins, Hursh, Parsons) develop that would provide some insurance and possibly allow us to trade away some pitching.
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I think Grosser is in the mind of the organization as well. Still obviously at least 2 years away but he has flashed some impressive stuff.
 
thethe said:
I think Grosser is in the mind of the organization as well. Still obviously at least 2 years away but he has flashed some impressive stuff.
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I like Grosser. I left him off the list because I think 2017 is too soon for him. Same reason I didn't mention Fried.
 
I think the truth is that the Braves have set up a pipeline of cheap young talent for the next 8 years. Sure, none of these players will end up stars in most projections but I think there will be a lot of major league contributors between average and above average and very cheap rates to help subsidize these increases you mention while still being able to acquire additional talent in free agency.

An additional factor to consider is that Freemans contract is currently the 33rd richest in baseball. In 5 years don't be surprised if he is near 100. The money is about to explode and alot of the cap numbers on these guys contracts are goign to look very favorable in the future.
 
thethe said:
I think the truth is that the Braves have set up a pipeline of cheap young talent for the next 8 years. Sure, none of these players will end up stars in most projections but I think there will be a lot of major league contributors between average and above average and very cheap rates to help subsidize these increases you mention while still being able to acquire additional talent in free agency.

An additional factor to consider is that Freemans contract is currently the 33rd richest in baseball. In 5 years don't be surprised if he is near 100. The money is about to explode and alot of the cap numbers on these guys contracts are goign to look very favorable in the future.
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Seems like yesterday when everyone was in awe of Kemp's 8 year/$160 million contract - Freeman's deal already looks like a steal, and will turn out to be a significant discount by the time 2017 arrives.
 
nsacpi said:
Of course. I have some familiarity with what has happened and is likely to happen to revenue streams.
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Thats why I'm not sure why you are skeptical. All the variables in the equation point to the Braves really enhancing their revenues. If this ballpark is a success and they see a 50% increase in attendance they will flush with money and then the beast will start feeding itself.
 
If the revenue streams from the new stadium are so enormous why not sign players now to backloaded deals and not punt on 2015.
 
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