Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects

[yeezus]

Since when is batting average as important as you are making it? He was 4th among starters in OPS with RISP (and had more RBIs with RISP than anyone else--a SF can affect batting average, and he led the team in those). And you are looking at the raw numbers that include while he was hitting elsewhere in the lineup. What are his RISP numbers solely in the #4 spot?

batting average is at least mildly important when dealing with RISP. I also never put a value on it, I said those numbers hurt, aren't good, and a jump in your #4 hitter with RISP can make a difference. he was 4th among our starters in OPS with RISP? and that's supposed to be a good thing? Freeman was always on base for him which gave him opps.

him hitting .280 with RISP could have won a few more games. he wasn't all that good in those situations over two years.

 

[Dalyn]

Well done on changing your posts in time!

Nuttin buh luv fo ya Dalyn!

 

[yeezus]

also sac flies don't affect BA do they? they aren't official at-bats b

 

[Dalyn]

batting average is at least mildly important when dealing with RISP. I also never put a value on it, I said those numbers hurt, aren't good, and a jump in your #4 hitter with RISP can make a difference. he was 4th among our starters in OPS with RISP? and that's supposed to be a good thing? Freeman was always on base for him which gave him opps.

him hitting .280 with RISP could have won a few more games. he wasn't all that good in those situations over two years.

He definitely could've been better, though it is weird how he only seemed to suck when a runner was at second. Same last year. Maybe Freeman is a distraction out there at second.

 

[thethe]

I think batting average is going to start getting to be much more important in the future actually.

 

[Dalyn]

also sac flies don't affect BA do they? they aren't official at-bats b

No, they don't (not directly). I clarified what I meant. My mistake with the wording.

 

[Dalyn]

I think batting average is going to start getting to be much more important in the future actually.

I don't agree at all. Why do you think that?

 

[sc1767]

After trading Heyward, it made no sense to keep Justin if we couldn't re-sign him. We can finish in 4th without him. But I really do not like that we'll have to wait years to see benefits from the main piece we got in return.

I became dissatisfied with JS after a while and it seems like I am already feeling the same way about Hart. Old blood, when we need new blood. It's depressing when the bright side seems to be that we probably won't be worse than what we watched towards the end of last year. I'm getting old, and my 1995 WS Champions coffee mug is losing hope of ever finding a partner. '15 will be the 20th season played since then.

 

[thethe]

I don't agree at all. Why do you think that?

Contact is going to be the important thing moving forward. Those hitters that can consistently put the bat on the ball. The hitters that do that more often are going to have higher averages.

Average was devauled in the past becaues the approach was to do as much damage with every swing possible. This resulted from PED's.

I just believe the whole game is going to change. I don't think average will be the most important stat but I do think it will become more important than what it was the last 15 years where it was basically a useless tool.

 

[Dalyn]

Contact is going to be the important thing moving forward. Those hitters that can consistently put the bat on the ball. The hitters that do that more often are going to have higher averages.

Average was devauled in the past becaues the approach was to do as much damage with every swing possible. This resulted from PED's.

I just believe the whole game is going to change. I don't think average will be the most important stat but I do think it will become more important than what it was the last 15 years where it was basically a useless tool.

Seitzer is all about contact, and he talks about OBP and OPS. I don't think average is ever going to reclaim its former glory, though I'm sure the league average will increase if more teams focus on contact.

 

[Carp]

It's a misleading stat under these circumstances when you consider that a sacrifice fly can affect batting average.

Ummm unless I'm missing something, sac flies don't affect your BA.

 

[Dalyn]

Ummm unless I'm missing something, sac flies don't affect your BA.

Indirectly. I clarified what I meant.

 

[Carp]

My mistake with the wording. I meant that a sacrifice fly by definition is a player giving up a chance at a hit to drive in a run. If they were selfish, it could mean an extra hit or two. Justin led the team in sacrifice flies.

I see now. Thx.

 

[gilesfan]

And thats why Gattis will be traded.

And I wouldn't say that because we saw what loading up on power hitters did for us. Just a lot of swings and misses and a complete inability to score runs other than a homerun. Yeah that works in the regular season against crappy teams and the back end of starting rotations but in the playoffs that **** doesn't work.

https://medium.com/the-cauldron/in-the-mlb-postseason-power-definitely-plays-7a208a8bb206

Home runs tend to be hit at a similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season, but scoring by any other means becomes more difficult. The best teams tend to have the best pitchers, who in turn allow the fewest baserunners, so stringing together rallies becomes an increasing challenge.

Here is the data on the last 10 postseasons, plus the current one (information from Baseball-Reference and Statspass):

It’s really a simple math problem. As on-base percentage decreases, the probability of putting enough men on base to push home a runner declines. League-wide on-base percentage in 2014 was .314 this season, but it has been .289 this postseason. That’s a reduction of eight percent, which is quite significant. In essence, a team needs three singles in order to score a run, and the likelihood of each base hit has now been diminished. As probability comes from multiplication, the chance of scoring through piecemeal offense can decline quickly.

A Baseball Prospectus study two years ago noted that playoff teams scored a higher percentage of their runs via home runs than non-playoff teams and, of those clubs that reached the postseason, those that were more dependent on the homer scored more in October, too.

 

[Carp]

I think the most important thing to look at w/RISP is RBIs per at-bat, and Justin was right there with others considered clutch like Freeman and Heyward (though Stella! was the best).

I don't like that either, as your players with more power are going to have more RBI's per at bat.

Player 1 hits a grand slam in 1 at bat with RISP but goes 0-3 over his next 3 games with RISP. He shows average as .250 with 4 RBI.

Player 2 knocked in 4 runs on 4 singles in 4 at bats with RISP over 4 games. His average is 1.000 with 4 RBI.

Both have the same RBI per at bat, but 1 player was clearly more valuable on a per game average.

 

[Diesel]

https://medium.com/the-cauldron/in-the-mlb-postseason-power-definitely-plays-7a208a8bb206

Home runs tend to be hit at a similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season, but scoring by any other means becomes more difficult. The best teams tend to have the best pitchers, who in turn allow the fewest baserunners, so stringing together rallies becomes an increasing challenge.

Here is the data on the last 10 postseasons, plus the current one (information from Baseball-Reference and Statspass):

It’s really a simple math problem. As on-base percentage decreases, the probability of putting enough men on base to push home a runner declines. League-wide on-base percentage in 2014 was .314 this season, but it has been .289 this postseason. That’s a reduction of eight percent, which is quite significant. In essence, a team needs three singles in order to score a run, and the likelihood of each base hit has now been diminished. As probability comes from multiplication, the chance of scoring through piecemeal offense can decline quickly.

A Baseball Prospectus study two years ago noted that playoff teams scored a higher percentage of their runs via home runs than non-playoff teams and, of those clubs that reached the postseason, those that were more dependent on the homer scored more in October, too.

I had seen this and was searching for it before you posted it. Even though it seems to be the common belief that small ball teams succeed more in the playoffs, this doesn't seem to support that.

 

[Dalyn]

I don't like that either, as your players with more power are going to have more RBI's per at bat.

Player 1 hits a grand slam in 1 at bat with RISP but goes 0-3 over his next 3 games with RISP. He shows average as .250 with 4 RBI.

Player 2 knocked in 4 runs on 4 singles in 4 at bats with RISP over 4 games.

Both have the same RBI per at bat, but 1 player was clearly more valuable on a per game average.

But the second player is most likely not knocking anyone in from first while the other player most likely is. Perfect example is Stella! vs Justin. Stella! led the team with RBIs per at-bat w/RISP, but he didn't knock in a single person from first. Justin knocked in 25.

 

[thethe]

https://medium.com/the-cauldron/in-the-mlb-postseason-power-definitely-plays-7a208a8bb206

Home runs tend to be hit at a similar rate in the playoffs as in the regular season, but scoring by any other means becomes more difficult. The best teams tend to have the best pitchers, who in turn allow the fewest baserunners, so stringing together rallies becomes an increasing challenge.

Here is the data on the last 10 postseasons, plus the current one (information from Baseball-Reference and Statspass):

It’s really a simple math problem. As on-base percentage decreases, the probability of putting enough men on base to push home a runner declines. League-wide on-base percentage in 2014 was .314 this season, but it has been .289 this postseason. That’s a reduction of eight percent, which is quite significant. In essence, a team needs three singles in order to score a run, and the likelihood of each base hit has now been diminished. As probability comes from multiplication, the chance of scoring through piecemeal offense can decline quickly.

A Baseball Prospectus study two years ago noted that playoff teams scored a higher percentage of their runs via home runs than non-playoff teams and, of those clubs that reached the postseason, those that were more dependent on the homer scored more in October, too.

This study is based off of years where PED's were still rampant. I'm not sure how much validity its going to have moving forward.

 

[gilesfan]

This study is based off of years where PED's were still rampant. I'm not sure how much validity its going to have moving forward.

like last year?

Run scoring is down, but percentage of runs thorugh HR's aren't drastically different (maybe even higher.) And look at OBP, which the study refers too, that's as low as it gets meaning HRs are even more important.

 

[thethe]

like last year?

Small sample size noise is always possible. Lets wait to see where baseball goes in the next five years.