sturg33
I
So you have to go back 4 years before you can even show me a league average number? Good point.
Braves in talks with DBacks for Trevor Cahill
- Thread starter dak
- Start date
So you have to go back 4 years before you can even show me a league average number? Good point.
sturg33
I
I should give up on baseball because I haven't gotten excited about some spring training stats?
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
4 years=2, good to know.
sturg33
I
read your post again... And stop using antiquated stats
VirginiaBrave
Well-known member
I simply said you should because you are not going to be content with anything the Braves do right now.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
He had a 3.7, 3.9 ERA in 2012 and 2013, is that league average?
And not 4 years ago, unless my math is bad.
The front office is not above criticism obviously but there are many posters who are doing it in a mature manner. There are clearly some on this board that have an axe to grind with the front office and therefore go out of their way to poke fun whenever possible. It all stems from one move with these people.
chop2chip
Well-known member
That's fair, but I was responding to the question of the last time he was worth $10MM in a season.
2013 wasn't. 2012 was.
He was certainly worth 10 million last year. The previous 3? Not so much. And the 2 before that is debatable. And he likely won't be worth what he will get paid in 2015 either.
It's like this: and have said it before, there's an entire generation of Braves fans who never experienced a rebuild, let alone knowing what it was like when the team really sucked. In the late 80's, it was guaranteed that the team would lose 100 games. Now, if there's a sub-.500 season, you have no shortage of Chicken Littles. Simple solution: they should go whack off to Bryce Harper with Gilesfan.
chop2chip
Well-known member
2013 - I can agree with you that he wasn't worth that amount, but he was also coming off a pretty severe injury. It seems it could be an outlier from an otherwise consistent career.
Career Worth in Dollars per Fangraphs
2014 - $13.7
2013 - ($0.8)
2012 - $7.1 (partial season due to injury. He was really good in 2012)
2011 - $6.3
2010 - $9.5
2009 - $9.4
2008 - $27.1
2007 - $16.6
2006 - $7.3
Is he world beater? No. Is he a prime regression candidate? Sure. But it's also not unreasonable for people to be optimistic that he can be worth about $10MM per year given a good bill of health. He's just as likely to outperform his projection as he is to underperform.
VirginiaBrave
Well-known member
Well sure, but that can be said about any player that steps on the field. Its why I don't get tied up in the advanced stats. Projections are just that, projections...
weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
As a Braves fan there is no downside to this deal unless Cahill walks into the locker room one day with a gun and shoots our best players in the face. And there is some potential significant upside here. A low 90's sinker with McDowell as the pitching coach and getting him out of the quasi thin air in Arizona. You never know.
For 2015 I agree. And if we signed him for 2 years I wouldn't really have an issue with his deal. We aren't contending and having a veteran to show players how to play isn't the worst thing. But by the time the new stadium opens I feel he is going to be a replacement level player. That's not something the team needs at that cost when they think that's the year they are going to contend again.
"Is he world beater? No. Is he a prime regression candidate? Sure. But it's also not unreasonable for people to be optimistic that he can be worth about $10MM per year given a good bill of health. He's just as likely to outperform his projection as he is to underperform."
He's exactly what those screaming the front office sucks don't want - a player we picked up for nothing that COULD potentially bring a better piece than what was traded to get him if he performs well.
If he doesn't, you've lost nothing and you walk away.
That's how you rebuild.
He's exactly what those screaming the front office sucks don't want - a player we picked up for nothing that COULD potentially bring a better piece than what was traded to get him if he performs well.
If he doesn't, you've lost nothing and you walk away.
That's how you rebuild.
Except those 2 years where the Braves think they will be contenders again in 2017 and 2018 where Markakis is likely a non factor and sucking down millions off of the team. I don't think anybody would of had a problem if Markakis was a 2 year deal with a 3rd option year. But the chances of him being dead money when moving to the new park is pretty good. Is that something a rebuilding team should do?
chop2chip
Well-known member
That's a separate argument. I agree that the contract was at least a year too long and probably wasn't the best idea for a team that doesn't have a good chance of competing.
But there is a separate contingency here that think he's garbage. He's not. He's a good above average player who would justify this contract if he basically maintains his production and stays healthy. The problem is that neither of those things are all that likely.
I can understand the head-scratching over the Markakis deal. It's not the type of move you expect a team in total rebuild to make. However, IIRC, I'm not the only person that has pointed out the fact that he was signed on December 3rd - 16 days before Upton was traded and 42 days (6 weeks - or about the length of Spring Training) before Gattis was dealt. While many felt the rebuild was coming, the process hadn't started (in full at least). While it's completely understandable to question the length of the deal, it's tough to question the motivation - there had been no public announcement (whether the decision had been made internally or not) that the team was waving the white flag and having a firesale. Doing so would have cost Hart ALL leverage in his attempts to trade either player. One of the underlying goals almost had to be to avoid the Phillies' predicament at all costs given the timetable for moving into the new park. Had Upton and Heyward's deals been expiring following 2017 they may have chosen to roll the dice and hope for the best moving into the new digs. The timing just sucked - and that's no more Wren's fault than anyone else's. Opening a new facility with a 70-75 win team just wasn't an option IMO.
The Phillies gambled that players like Rollins, Utley, and Lee would still be somewhat productive even if they didn't "earn" the total value of their deals while they were on the fringe of contention and missed chances to maximize the value of someone like Hamels and it's wound up costing them far more than what a couple years of an unproductive Markakis will cost the Braves if they'd have decided to trade Heyward or Upton for pitching help and kept the other one and Gattis while trying to make one more run.