Kimbrel/Melvin Trade Thread

MadduxFanII said:
There's one more thing that puts me on the "pro" side of this trade- I was beginning to worry just a little bit about Kimbrel's future. I don't have nearly enough confidence in my own scouting abilities to entirely base any evaluations on them, but over the last couple years it looked to me that Craig had slipped just a bit. The command wasn't as crisp, the stuff not quite as dominant, the efficiency not quite there like it had been. Objectively the numbers were all still extraordinary, but it did feel like Craig had taken maybe a half-step back from his best days.

Combined with the general reality that a closer's lifetime tends to be a short one, and the usual concerns about a short, high-effort, high-velocity pitcher, and I think it was a good idea to get out from under that contract when we had the chance.
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I think the delcine will level off. He just started off on such a level we've never seen that it was boiund to come back down to earth.
 
clvclv said:
Now THIS is what a rebuild looks like!!!

Less than $53,500,000 in salary commitments next year including Maybin. Does anyone still think they're not going to try to play on at least one of Justin/Upton/Cespedes???
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I hope we don't make another play for the Upton guy again after we got rid of him today
 
dak said:
This.

@Joelsherman1: #Braves also get out of 3-$34M with Kimbrel. They were going to have an elite/expensive closer for few yrs with bad team. Didn’t make sense
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Welcome to the party Joel Sherman - several of us have been saying this for months.
 
MadduxFanII said:
There's one more thing that puts me on the "pro" side of this trade- I was beginning to worry just a little bit about Kimbrel's future. I don't have nearly enough confidence in my own scouting abilities to entirely base any evaluations on them, but over the last couple years it looked to me that Craig had slipped just a bit. The command wasn't as crisp, the stuff not quite as dominant, the efficiency not quite there like it had been. Objectively the numbers were all still extraordinary, but it did feel like Craig had taken maybe a half-step back from his best days.

Combined with the general reality that a closer's lifetime tends to be a short one, and the usual concerns about a short, high-effort, high-velocity pitcher, and I think it was a good idea to get out from under that contract when we had the chance.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. He seemed just a hair less effective / comfortable last year. I didn't notice it as much in 2013. It was last year that I started to get anxious based on what I was in a couple stretches.
 
clvclv said:
Now THIS is what a rebuild looks like!!!

Less than $53,500,000 in salary commitments next year including Maybin. Does anyone still think they're not going to try to play on at least one of Justin/Upton/Cespedes???
Click to expand...
We're gonna make either one massive a few small signings or 2 big signings.

There's a clause to the Braves sale to Liberty that we can't go below a certain minimum payroll. I want to say it's 87M. So we can't be below that amount as according to McGuirk it was written in as part of the sale. Basically a stipulation from Selig to stop Liberty from just chopping the Braves and selling them when it came to tax time.
 
Yes this year will not be good but after the season its going to get interesting. Will we trade for big bats? Will we go after Heyward and Upton?

We will essentially be rebuilt quickly if we chose to.
 
Tino25Dynasty said:
Yep the 9th inning is overrated. Those GM's like Cashman, Schuerholz and all the other considered greats of the game are so stupid for paying those 9th inning guys those big bucks. You should have their jobs
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Schuerholz didn't fork over a lot for closers. Smoltz only went to the bullpen due to injury and moved back to the rotation and Wagner was signed by Wren. Outside of Wohlers--who lost his control before he got too expensive--Schuerholz opted for a lot of closer-by-committee and relatively low-priced guys or short-term guys (Pena, McMichael, Ligtenberg, Rocker, Wickman, Gonzalez, Soriano).
 
If anyone cares... Keith Law loves the trade for Atlanta... just wrote a post on it. Think SD went a little nuts on this one
 
I think we will have 5 players on opening day roster left over from last year's opening day? (Teheran, Wood, Freeman, Simmons, ...?)
 
weso1 said:
I wouldn't complain if you posted his thoughts here.
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I've understood most of the Padres' moves this winter, perhaps all of them, but this trade, which sends Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton to San Diego, looks like a much better deal for Atlanta than it does for the Padres. Atlanta clears a lot of money -- one tied up in an asset with no apparent value and one tied up in a very high-risk asset -- and gets some young pieces back along the way. The Padres upgrade their ninth inning, but don't address their lack of a true centerfielder or lack of even a reasonable facsimile of a shortstop, and take on even more cost.

The Padres didn't have a major bullpen problem, so while Kimbrel would be an upgrade over just about any other team's closer except perhaps Cincinnati's, in practical terms it's probably worth just a win in the standings for San Diego. Deposed closer Joaquin Benoit is the picture of not-health, throwing just five innings after August 15th last year due to a shoulder injury, and he missed all of 2009 due to a torn rotator cuff in the same joint. (Also, he's not French, so why is his name pronounced like he's from Toulouse?) Kimbrel's more reliable than Benoit, but one-inning relievers are the most volatile assets in baseball, and Kimbrel has already defied the odds with four straight years of health without even losing anything off his fastball. Perhaps he's one of the great exceptions to the high baseline rate of closer attrition, like Mariano Rivera, or perhaps throwing with maximum effort 70 innings a year, about twenty times a year working on consecutive days, will catch up to him. I don't know any team that can predict such collapses, but most clubs discount reliever values because of that uncertainty. This deal doesn't seem to do so, and that's before we consider how the Padres have had a history of composting ballpark refuse into useful relievers ever since they moved into Petco.

To acquire Kimbrel, the Padres took on his entire contract as well as that of Melvin Upton, so Atlanta will end up saving about $48 million over 2016-17. Upton's straight-line descent since he went to Atlanta has been a huge mystery, as he doesn't even have the mistake power that often marks the death rattle of an otherwise decrepit veteran hitter. I would like to argue that a change of scenery and hitting coaches can coax some value out of Upton's bat, but I don't believe in fairy tales.

Atlanta comes out huge winners in this deal, saving all of that cash, adding three players/prospects of value, and a draft pick, and Carlos Quentin, who is the rock that Charlie Brown always gets on Halloween. Quentin's extension in San Diego was a bad idea from the get-go, as he's an "American League player" (a euphemism for a guy who can't defend at any position) who is always hurt, last qualifying for the batting title in 2010. He's 32 and can still flash some power while covering the inner third of the strike zone with his torso, so while Atlanta has already designated him for assignment, I expect him to end up on an AL club looking for DH help or a right-handed bat off the bench.

Everything else Atlanta receives in this deal has value.

Cameron Maybin can still play plus defense in center when healthy, and had some doubles power before injuries derailed his career in 2013; Atlanta was planning to play Eric Young, Jr. in center, even though he's a poor defender who doesn't get on base and has no power, so Maybin has a low bar to clear. They also get right-handed pitcher Matt Wisler, who missed my Top 100 this year but was the Padres' top pitching prospect and is major-league ready right now. He looks the part of a durable mid-rotation guy, with a 92-95 mph fastball, average to above-average slider, and fringy to average changeup -- nothing knockout but enough of a repertoire to be a starter. If one of those pitches becomes plus, he could be a number two, but right now I think he's more of a league-average or slightly worse pitcher who adds value through durability. He becomes Atlanta's No. 7 prospect.

Outfielder Jordan Paroubeck is an outstanding athlete who trains in the offseason with Barry Bonds, who was reasonably good at the sport himself. Paroubeck can run and has some raw power, but is behind developmentally after missing the summer of 2013 due to injury and spending last year in the Arizona Rookie League at 19. His arm is adequate for center after the shoulder surgery but not right, so if he can't play center -- and he didn't last year with Michael Gettys on the same team -- he's going to have to hit for more power to profile in left. You can see the influence of Atlanta executive Chad Macdonald, who was in San Diego when Paroubeck was drafted and for most of Wisler's tenure there. Atlanta also gets the 41st overall draft pick, a competitive balance pick that was tradeable under the current CBA (as all draft picks should be), adding to their haul of picks, with selections at Nos. 14, 28, 41, and 54 on day one. The 41st pick in 2014 carried a slot bonus value of $1,384,900, so Atlanta will have the fourth-highest total bonus pool this year, after Houston, Colorado, and Arizona. To add a legitimate pitching prospect, a potential everyday centerfielder, a lottery ticket outfield prospect, and a top-50 draft pick while clearing one unwanted contract and one high-risk one had to be a no-brainer for Atlanta as they continue to try to retool to compete in 2017.
 
Tino25Dynasty said:
Yep the 9th inning is overrated. Those GM's like Cashman, Schuerholz and all the other considered greats of the game are so stupid for paying those 9th inning guys those big bucks. You should have their jobs
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As good as Kimbrel is, i really wonder how he'll age.

The last 2-3 years and maybe the next 1-2 are about as good as he'll ever be.

He cant be like Mo who basically has 1 pitch and still dominates, once he loses some velocity on his fastball, he wont be the insane pitcher he is.

Call it spin all you want but whatever.
 
clvclv said:
Now THIS is what a rebuild looks like!!!

Less than $53,500,000 in salary commitments next year including Maybin. Does anyone still think they're not going to try to play on at least one of Justin/Upton/Cespedes???
Click to expand...

They'll certainly have the money for them, whether or not they do that is a better question.

But it makes sense to go for them.
 
sturg33 said:
I've understood most of the Padres' moves this winter, perhaps all of them, but this trade, which sends Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton to San Diego, looks like a much better deal for Atlanta than it does for the Padres. Atlanta clears a lot of money -- one tied up in an asset with no apparent value and one tied up in a very high-risk asset -- and gets some young pieces back along the way. The Padres upgrade their ninth inning, but don't address their lack of a true centerfielder or lack of even a reasonable facsimile of a shortstop, and take on even more cost.

The Padres didn't have a major bullpen problem, so while Kimbrel would be an upgrade over just about any other team's closer except perhaps Cincinnati's, in practical terms it's probably worth just a win in the standings for San Diego. Deposed closer Joaquin Benoit is the picture of not-health, throwing just five innings after August 15th last year due to a shoulder injury, and he missed all of 2009 due to a torn rotator cuff in the same joint. (Also, he's not French, so why is his name pronounced like he's from Toulouse?) Kimbrel's more reliable than Benoit, but one-inning relievers are the most volatile assets in baseball, and Kimbrel has already defied the odds with four straight years of health without even losing anything off his fastball. Perhaps he's one of the great exceptions to the high baseline rate of closer attrition, like Mariano Rivera, or perhaps throwing with maximum effort 70 innings a year, about twenty times a year working on consecutive days, will catch up to him. I don't know any team that can predict such collapses, but most clubs discount reliever values because of that uncertainty. This deal doesn't seem to do so, and that's before we consider how the Padres have had a history of composting ballpark refuse into useful relievers ever since they moved into Petco.

To acquire Kimbrel, the Padres took on his entire contract as well as that of Melvin Upton, so Atlanta will end up saving about $48 million over 2016-17. Upton's straight-line descent since he went to Atlanta has been a huge mystery, as he doesn't even have the mistake power that often marks the death rattle of an otherwise decrepit veteran hitter. I would like to argue that a change of scenery and hitting coaches can coax some value out of Upton's bat, but I don't believe in fairy tales.

Atlanta comes out huge winners in this deal, saving all of that cash, adding three players/prospects of value, and a draft pick, and Carlos Quentin, who is the rock that Charlie Brown always gets on Halloween. Quentin's extension in San Diego was a bad idea from the get-go, as he's an "American League player" (a euphemism for a guy who can't defend at any position) who is always hurt, last qualifying for the batting title in 2010. He's 32 and can still flash some power while covering the inner third of the strike zone with his torso, so while Atlanta has already designated him for assignment, I expect him to end up on an AL club looking for DH help or a right-handed bat off the bench.

Everything else Atlanta receives in this deal has value.

Cameron Maybin can still play plus defense in center when healthy, and had some doubles power before injuries derailed his career in 2013; Atlanta was planning to play Eric Young, Jr. in center, even though he's a poor defender who doesn't get on base and has no power, so Maybin has a low bar to clear. They also get right-handed pitcher Matt Wisler, who missed my Top 100 this year but was the Padres' top pitching prospect and is major-league ready right now. He looks the part of a durable mid-rotation guy, with a 92-95 mph fastball, average to above-average slider, and fringy to average changeup -- nothing knockout but enough of a repertoire to be a starter. If one of those pitches becomes plus, he could be a number two, but right now I think he's more of a league-average or slightly worse pitcher who adds value through durability. He becomes Atlanta's No. 7 prospect.

Outfielder Jordan Paroubeck is an outstanding athlete who trains in the offseason with Barry Bonds, who was reasonably good at the sport himself. Paroubeck can run and has some raw power, but is behind developmentally after missing the summer of 2013 due to injury and spending last year in the Arizona Rookie League at 19. His arm is adequate for center after the shoulder surgery but not right, so if he can't play center -- and he didn't last year with Michael Gettys on the same team -- he's going to have to hit for more power to profile in left. You can see the influence of Atlanta executive Chad Macdonald, who was in San Diego when Paroubeck was drafted and for most of Wisler's tenure there. Atlanta also gets the 41st overall draft pick, a competitive balance pick that was tradeable under the current CBA (as all draft picks should be), adding to their haul of picks, with selections at Nos. 14, 28, 41, and 54 on day one. The 41st pick in 2014 carried a slot bonus value of $1,384,900, so Atlanta will have the fourth-highest total bonus pool this year, after Houston, Colorado, and Arizona. To add a legitimate pitching prospect, a potential everyday centerfielder, a lottery ticket outfield prospect, and a top-50 draft pick while clearing one unwanted contract and one high-risk one had to be a no-brainer for Atlanta as they continue to try to retool to compete in 2017.
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I agree wholeheartedly
 
So if you think of Upton as a complete non-entity to the future of our club... The deal is:

Kimbrel

for

Maybin (an upgrade in CF)
Wisler (a top pitching prospect)
The other dude
41st pick in next year's draft
$54M in salary (2-3 big-time impact players)

No brainer
 
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