If you go by the cycle, the Republicans would get it. But you never really know who will emerge and who will falter. Clinton was a heavy favorite even well after Obama got in the race in 2008.
My suspicion is Clinton will be barbecued by Fox (like every other Dem), but largely given a pass on everything by CNN and the others. I think O'Malley and Booker (if he runs) could give her some strong competition, and I suppose if he doesn't goof, Jim Webb could gain some traction. Unless something really crazy happens, I see the party rallying around Clinton. It feels like it's her time.
On to the other side.
It's already a given that at least a couple of the dozen or more Republicans that will be running will put their foot in the mouth. Some of those instances will be blown out of proportion, and others won't. I see one of two things happening. Either they keep doing what they have the last two elections and go to the "next guy in line," i.e. McCain and Romney, or they choose not to do that in favor of a younger (potentially nonwhite) face, and they overcompensate and wind up with a not so good candidate.
Idk if the party and its backers will consider Jeb worth the gamble even if he has one of the best chances at pulling out a general election win. I see zero chance in hell the establishment will get behind Rand Paul and nominate him, unless he Kerry/Romney flip-flops and sells all the way out, which I suppose is more than possible.
It seems to me Republicans who don't tow the complete party line are going to have a harder time than Democrats in the same position reconciling the differences. The far right seems more obsessed than the far left on having the nominee pander to all their views.
In closing, I'm not going to even predict who will win the White House, but will say it won't make a huge difference for the most part. The power still lies within the Big Club that we aren't in.
So it doesn't matter.
Unless Sarah Palin or Nancy Pukelosi is president.
Oh my God.
