4/26/15 MLB GAME THREAD: Markakis still the MAN leading off

[50PoundHead]

For the six drafts I studied, there was a fair amount of variance in the number of productive major league players produced. I defined a productive player as one who generated total WAR of 5 or higher in their pre-free agency period.

Here are the number of players who met that standard (out of the first 60 taken) in each draft:

2000 7
2001 8
2002 16
2003 12
2004 13
2005 11

So in the best draft (2002) you had twice as good a chance of finding a productive player than the weakest draft (2000).

I think 5 WAR puts you in star territory. That's a little different than simply being an above average contributor, which I should have referenced that I was looking at. Plus, it's a relatively small number of players (a nine-player difference) that constitute the difference. I don't know what the Braves will do this draft, but my guess is they will look for some ceiling, which entails larger bonuses and larger risks. I don't know how I feel about that. We do have the pool money to do some dramatic things, both in the draft and internationally.

 

[nsacpi]

Total WAR not per year is what my cutoff was.

I think 5 WAR puts you in star territory. That's a little different than simply being an above average contributor, which I should have referenced that I was looking at. Plus, it's a relatively small number of players (a nine-player difference) that constitute the difference. I don't know what the Braves will do this draft, but my guess is they will look for some ceiling, which entails larger bonuses and larger risks. I don't know how I feel about that. We do have the pool money to do some dramatic things, both in the draft and internationally.

 

[chop2chip]

For the six drafts I studied, there was a fair amount of variance in the number of productive major league players produced. I defined a productive player as one who generated total WAR of 5 or higher in their pre-free agency period.

Here are the number of players who met that standard (out of the first 60 taken) in each draft:

2000 7

2001 8

2002 16

2003 12

2004 13

2005 11

So in the best draft (2002) you had twice as good a chance of finding a productive player than the weakest draft (2000).

Not a bad idea, but that sample size is way way way too small to draw any sort of conclusion from.

For example, if you choose to not include 2000-2002 and just looked at the last three years you would have seen no discrepancies. If you include the previous 3 years alone you would have concluded the exact opposite.

I tend to side with the idea that not all drafts class outcomes are created equal. Sure you might have a similar amount of players make the big leagues, but that doesn't necessarily control for quality.

Now that's not the same as saying that we are able to accurately predict the quality of drafts. This may just be a very deep class, but those forecasting simply weren't watching the right players at the right time. So to that point I would agree with Thethe and 50 that an incoming draft class is a draft class is a draft class.

 

[50PoundHead]

To do a comprehensive analysis, I think you'd have to look at the nature of each pick and the incidence of injuries in any draft year. If you're looking at 60 players, one knee injury and a blown arm greatly skews that percentages.

I think chop2chip said more directly what I was trying to say. It is more difficult now under the new rules with pool limitations, but prior to that, there were a lot of guys picked after their "talent" ranking due to signability issues. That's not to say that those highly-heralded late signees were locks for stardom (calling Lars Andersen), but I think the draft was more fluid prior to the new rules.

 

[Russ2dollas]

It may be a below-average draft crop, but I always marvel as to how most every draft produces the same number of players who end up being starters/contributors. I think star power is what differentiates drafts in the eyes of the scouts.

if you draft a ton of guys you'll hit and miss.

The question seems to be how many Kris Bryant, Strausberg, Rodon.....guys that everyone believes will be good and be good early. Drafting a HS kid and waiting 5 years is tough.

My original point is that if you aren't a top 3 pick or so.....I'm not sure that the losing gets you the reward.

 

[50PoundHead]

Speaking of the draft, Mac Marshall hadn't pitched in over a month since a one-inning stint in mid-March, but he did pitch three scoreless innings on Friday. Anyone down Chipola way know what occasioned the one-month hiatus. I'm guessing injury, but curious about type/severity.

 

[nsacpi]

My original point is that if you aren't a top 3 pick or so.....I'm not sure that the losing gets you the reward.

Even top picks sometimes don't make it. But in general there is a benefit from having a higher pick. The fact that there is uncertainty and variability doesn't contradict that.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Even top picks sometimes don't make it. But in general there is a benefit from having a higher pick. The fact that there is uncertainty and variability doesn't contradict that.

That is true.....the question for me is if a top 5 pick is worth having a top 5 pick season. For me it's not. If we could play good baseball, be around 500, and get a top 5 pick........Great. But it's not working that way.

I just don't think the reward is there to tank in MLB, especially this year. Obviously I'd like to have the top pick in every round.

 

[nsacpi]

To answer that question i think you would have to look at the effects of losing on revenues. Losing an extra ten games might move you up three spots in the draft, but what happens to attendance.

That is true.....the question for me is if a top 5 pick is worth having a top 5 pick season. For me it's not. If we could play good baseball, be around 500, and get a top 5 pick........Great. But it's not working that way.

I just don't think the reward is there to tank in MLB, especially this year. Obviously I'd like to have the top pick in every round.

 

[chop2chip]

To answer that question i think you would have to look at the effects of losing on revenues. Losing an extra ten games might move you up three spots in the draft, but what happens to attendance.

This is a very good and often forgotten point.

 

[50PoundHead]

That is true.....the question for me is if a top 5 pick is worth having a top 5 pick season. For me it's not. If we could play good baseball, be around 500, and get a top 5 pick........Great. But it's not working that way.

I just don't think the reward is there to tank in MLB, especially this year. Obviously I'd like to have the top pick in every round.

I agree it's not as cut-and-dried as the football draft, which is more exact than the baseball draft without being all that exact. You scout, you sign your priorities, and you hope you've guessed right on their development arcs.

 

[thewupk]

To answer that question i think you would have to look at the effects of losing on revenues. Losing an extra ten games might move you up three spots in the draft, but what happens to attendance.

I doubt they care much about attendance this year or next. It will never get Marlins bad and even if attendance was better by winning those 10 extra games it would just fill up Libertys pockets. It's all about the build up to 2017. Winning more this year doesn't help in anyway but potentially make Liberty richer.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I agree it's not as cut-and-dried as the football draft, which is more exact than the baseball draft without being all that exact. You scout, you sign your priorities, and you hope you've guessed right on their development arcs.

And in football those guys are expected to play. Even late round guys have a role if they make the team.

Baseball is drafting a guy you hope to use in 3-5 years. Drafting them in a time of life where they get a ton of changes to body and skill level.

MLB is more like the NBA draft pre age limit. And we have an age limit b/c the NBA folks figured they couldn't help themselves. Kept drafting 18 y/o with tools and having them amount to nothing. That's what we do. But if you want to be highly rated by Keith Law you need to draft high ceiling guys. It's what we did this summer. Law has us ranked higher than anyone else b/c of the ceiling on all of the guys we got. Problem is the probability is really low on most of them.

MLB draft is like an entire first round of 18 y/o foreign players in the NBA.

 

[nsacpi]

I doubt they care much about attendance this year or next. It will never get Marlins bad and even if attendance was better by winning those 10 extra games it would just fill up Libertys pockets. It's all about the build up to 2017. Winning more this year doesn't help in anyway but potentially make Liberty richer.

I think a company like Liberty pays very careful attention to the bottom line, no matter what year.

 

[thewupk]

I think a company like Liberty pays very careful attention to the bottom line, no matter what year.

Liberty might but the Braves front office doesn't. Besides I doubt very much that a 10 game difference in wins means very much right now in terms of attendnace. The outlook this year was very bleak to start the year and nothing has changed. It's not going to be a good team and most everybody knows this. The people that go to the games this year will be the people that just love going to baseball, hardcore fans, something to do on a given night/weekend. Not the fical fans that are drawn in by winning baseball.

 

[nsacpi]

Liberty might but the Braves front office doesn't. Besides I doubt very much that a 10 game difference in wins means very much right now in terms of attendnace. The outlook this year was very bleak to start the year and nothing has changed. It's not going to be a good team and most everybody knows this. The people that go to the games this year will be the people that just love going to baseball, hardcore fans, something to do on a given night/weekend. Not the fical fans that are drawn in by winning baseball.

I think they have an estimate of what attendance is going to be. And I'm also convinced if reality deviates from that estimate by a significant amount it will affect payroll going forward. Various reasons have been given for Wren's removal as GM. But I think the fact that payroll went one direction and attendance went a different direction in 2014 played a role.

 

[thethe]

I think for the most part Liberty wants to see the attendence trend moving in the right direction going into Cobb County.