TOP 30 PROSPECTS: OPENING DAY EDITION

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Dropped out of the list are Braves' Opening Day rookies: Bethancourt (3), J. Peterson (19), Cunniff (25).

FEBRUARY LIST
1. Matt Wisler (6-3, 195) RHP (NR) Why, of all the young guns, does the newst rate No. 1? Cause everyone else says so. Deemed MLB ready by some, named BBA's No. 1 overall SD prospect, the big Ohio native has a plus fastball and changeup and two effective breaking pitches in the slider and curveball, Wisler has the ability to pitch in the high-90s to the mid-70s

2. Jose Peraza (6-0, 165) 2B (1) His leg problems late last season meant that the Braves valued recovery over playing time this winter, so expect a well-rested Peraza in the spring ready to compete for the second base job. Peterson's arrival made questions about his placement irrelevant, as he was an early cut and assigned to Gwinnett as the 2B.

3. Lucas Sims (6-2, 195) RHP (2) With hype and circumstance causing all the talk about new Braves farmhands, none has been acceptably rated higher than their homegrown Lucas Sims. Now 20, his tools all came together when he threw most of a no-hitter for Lynchburg. Rated with a ridiculously good fastball and a curve that can keee up, Sims is still the Alpha Dog among the young guns.

4. Mike Foltynewicz (6-4, 220) RHP (NR) Owner of a consistent 100 mph fastball, and he’s a starter. He’s NOT a TJ patient (yet) and will be getting spring starts for the big club. The numbers aren’t as important as the progress, and Astros fan sites expected him to contend for a starting job in the spring. He’s had a brief turn as a closer, but he has more than one pitch.

5. Max Fried (6-4, 185) LHP (NR) Although he won’t be ready to pitch in 2015, such is his potential. He has been healthy for so little of his pro career, each healthy outing will be heavily scouted and evaluated. We’re coming down on the optimistic side for now.

6. Ozhaino Albies (5-9, 155) SS (7) The switch-hitter’s 2014 season, at age 17, was highlighted by unheard-of numbers. Which is the most remarkable is a healthy debate, but here they are: .364 average (.393 against lefties), 72 hits in 57 games, .446 OBP, 22 SBs, .890 OPS

7. Manny Banuelos (5-10) LHP (NR) Not sure if there’s ever been a wider gulf between the best and worst possible scenarios from the former Yankee. Figure first that he’s a starter or a minor leaguer, then try to get the Mariano Rivera quote that ManBan was “the best pitching prospect I’ve ever seen.” land in the real world, and you’re partways there.

8. Tyrell Jenkins (6-4, 200) RHP (NR). His troublesome shoulder had actually been a hindrance for several seasons when he finally had it repaired in August of 2013. After his long rehab, he wasn’t throwing all-out, but gutted out a 3.28 ERA despite allowing a hit per inning. He figures to be on a strict season-long pitch limit for the first half of the season.

9. Braxton Davidson (6-2, 210) OF (6) One hopes he’s not Victor Reyes all over again; as we’re still waiting for either of them to hit a professional home run. His reknowned batting eye is for real; his walks and hits combined for a .387 OBP – nice for a leadoff hitter, but he had only 10 XBH and 11 RBIs. His production is expected (hoped) to jump this year.

10. Jason Hursh (6-3, 200) RHP (5) The Braves Minor League Pitcher of the Year was also, by far, the most experienced. As predicted, he allowed a fair share of hits and a relatively low strikeout total. Expect him to get regular starting turns early in training camp. But there’s no room for him in the rotation. Figures to be durable anywhere he winds up.

11. Johan Camargo (6-0, 160) SS (9) A reliable, occasionally spectacular, player at the age of 20, he makes the errors that a teen makes while performing the spectacular play often enough to earn notice. Shortstop remains a position of need in the Braves season; how he builds on the .266-1-46 numbers of 2013 will be a major factor because of his .343 season in the DSL.

12. Richardo Sanchez (5-11, 160) LHP (NR). Perhaps notably, 17-year-old lefty acquired from the Angels is a Venezuelean, not Dominican. He’s had his first big moment on the world stage and defeated Cuba in the Caribbean 15U Gold Medal game. The $380K spent by the Angels was more than a quarter of the team’s annual international budget for 2013.

13. Rio Ruiz 3B. (NR). The Astros’ version of Kyle Kubitza, his future and/or his trade was a hot topic all it own. After drawing a $1.8 million signing bonus (more than Braxton Davidson) despite being drafted in the fourth round, this lefty hitter’s line drive power in a tricky Lancaster park should be giving way for more pure power. In 2014, he had 37 doubles and 11 homers at age 20 after a 33-double, 12-homer year at age 19. His defense has grown into a plus asset and he prefers third.

14. Alec Grosser (6-2, 190) RHP (12) Still only 19 last season, he was extended to close to 70 innings, and has still not yielded a professional home run. Finished at Danville 4-3, 3.68, with a strikeout per inning. Growing into his body and could be a force once he grows up.

15. Dilmer Mejia (5-11, 160) LHP (11) After owning, the Dominican League, made the rare in-season
move up to the GCL. He held his own, winning his only decision. When he was on, he was truly unhittable among his peers. No reason to rush him, so the GCL rotation could well have he and Sanchez as a 1-2 punch.

16. Todd Cunningham (6-0, 205) CF (NR) Don't know why the Braves didn't like the switch-hitter's audition this spring, because we saw a MLB ready player, offensively and defensively. A .287 hitter for Gwinnett in 2014, he could dominate AAA the way Gosselin did a year ago. All the signs are there he could make it somewhere. Surprised he wasn't in Padres deal(s).

17. Elmer Reyes (5-11, 175) (4) A good soldier who has done everything the Braves have asked and done them well, he either figures to return to Gwinnett as the AAA shortstop or will be a piece in yet another player development deal. His bat is lively enough to stay at second, but he is another defensive whiz with only 11 errors at short in 98 games in 2014.

18. Daniel Winkler (6-1, 200) RHP (NR). Braves fans were startled by outcry from Colorado fandom over this injured pitcher’s loss to a Braves’ Rule V claim. His final healthy season, he led all of the minor leagues in strikeouts – 175 in 157 innings. When hurt, he had a 1.41 ERA and only 33 hits allowed over 70. Those kind of numbers, even if he only approaches, post-rehab, mean he is sumpin’ special. Could be ready to pitch in July.

19. Dian Toscano (5-10, 200) OF (NR) At the age of 25, the Braves’ pick out of the Cuban lottery can be anything from the next Rico Carty to the next Schafer. A contact (lefty) hitter, he fits the profile of the new regime, but his delayed arrival causes many questions about his placement when the time comes. But a .440 on-base percentage can cut across a lot of player development.

20. Wes Parsons (6-5, 190) RHP (15) The rare success story out of the just-deposed player development, he struggled in the Carolina League (4-7, 5.68) after a 7-7 emergence at Rome. Still only 22, Parsons could get back on track this year at either Carolina or Mississippi.

21. Joey Meneses (6-3, 190) 1B (16) A torrid start moved him to Rome in less than a week, but after missing three full months due to left wrist injury, his power was nowhere to be found the final month of the season. He hit eight homers in his first two months. But age (22) is on his side.

22. Dustin Peterson (6-2, 180) 3B (NR) The pickup from the Padres turned 20 in September, and the hope is maturity = homers, and he hit 10 for Fort Wayne at age 19. Also had 31 doubles and 79 RBIs in his first full pro season.

23. Kyle Kinman (5-11, 185) LHP (13) He turned pro at the advanced age of 23, but that maturity was put to good use. Almost immediately, he claimed the closer role for Danville with spectacular results. There were only four saves, but he additionally had a 3-0 record, a 2.43 ERA, 43 strikeouts, six walks and only two wild pitches in 30 innings. Could easily be in the Carolina closer’s role this year.

24. Andrew Thurman (6-3, 225) RHP (NR) Putting Thurman this high speaks volumes on how weak the Braves’ system has gotten. The “Friday” starter for Cal-Irvine, he was taken in the second-round in 2013. The right-hander made 26 appearances (20 starts) with Class A Quad Cities in 2014, going 7-9 with a 5.38 ERA. The 23-year-old's advanced metrics were more impressive -- he posted a 3.74 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) -- and he struck out 107 over 115 1/3 innings

25. Chad Sobotka (6-7, 200) RHP (NR) It would help tremendously to actually see him pitch against live hitting, but we hear now that he is healthy after being unable to play (back fracture) when drafted. But the Braves were hyped to announce his original signing and we share their sense of anticipation.

26. Max Povse (6-8, 185) RHP (10) A successful pro debut (4-2, 3.42) behind him, the tallest Braves prospect was a quick, easy sign and wasted no time living the dream. He’ll likely begin 2015 in Rome and if he proves to be efficient eating innings, it would not surprise to see him end the season in Double-A.

27. Mallex Smith (5-9, 170) OF (NR) People tend to forget that the 1-2 punch of Peraza and the long-departed Kyle Wren was the Braves’ first real attempt to turn stolen bases into a weapon again. Smith’s 88 steals last year led all of minor league baseball and followed up a 64-steal season in 2013, his first full pro season..

28. Jordan Edgerton (6-1, 190) 3B (17) Literally, too hot to live – or to sustain. In his first 16 professional games, the third baseman drove in 24 runs with only four strikeouts. But then came July, and the light switch went off as suddenly as it arrived – in no small part that opponents began pitching around him (four intentional walks). But he found a happy medium and drove in 43 runs in 59 games. Had 29 walks to 34 strikeouts.

29. Blair Walters (6-0, 200) LHP (NR) Last year’s indy steal, this year’s …what? The Frontier League all-star starter and winner, he was signed by the Braves immediately thereafter and led Lynchburg into the playoffs like Robert Preston in the Music Man; 6-1, 2.33 and the Game One starter. Still only 25, the Braves would be nuts to not take a longer look at this guy. A Hawaii product!

30. Mauricio Cabrera (6-2, 180) RHP (NR) Still only 21, his velocity is virtually back as a man who threatens 100 mph. Reinvented as a reliever last year, there are signs that his future should be in the 'pen. Got to work above Class A-plus before we'll know.


STILL HERE: Daniel Castro,, Garrett Fulenchek, Matt Lipka, Connor Lein, Fernelys Sanchez, Williams Perez.
 
I still have severe reservations on Jenkins. He doesn't have a high enough K rate in the minors to adjust for his high BB rate. Hopefully he gets things in order but I have a lot of concerns.
 
I think you have Ruiz way too low. His ceiling is much higher than Kubitza's.

And I think the highest Wisler gets is about 95, though I agree with him at 1.
 
I think you have Ruiz way too low. His ceiling is much higher than Kubitza's.

And I think the highest Wisler gets is about 95, though I agree with him at 1.

Agree with offense. Teams have concerns about his defense. Just want to see if he a statue or has even a little bit of a knack out there.
 
I think Mallex flies up that list if he has a good year at Mississippi, but he's pretty much where he should be right now.
 
So I guy who splits low A and high A as a 21 year old, hits .310 with an excellent OBP of .403, OPS of .834 with a ridiculous 88 stolen bases only deserves to be placed 27th on our list? No way in heck.
 
I'd be interested in the communities thought now that we have seen these kids. Some big risers and not too many fallers.
 
OK. I'll give my Top 30. For added drama I'll break it up into groups of five working backwards. I'm going to leave off several pitchers who have not pitched this year but would be in the Top 30 if healthy (Fried, Parsons, Winkler), just because of the uncertainty concerning their injuries. I'm also leaving off Toscano since there is no proof the guy exists. Besides his (fake) birth certificate shows he is from Kenya not Cuba, and we know Kenyans are Muslims who don't play baseball and don't love America.

26. Johan Camargo
27. Jordan Edgerton
28. Connor Lien
29. Omar Obregon
30. Elmer Reyes

There are two Nicaraguans in this group of five and I like the more obscure one slightly better.

But let me start with Camargo. I saw him play for Rome last season, and imo he doesn't have the arm or range to stick at short. Realistically, his best chance for a major league career is as a utility infielder. He is a switch hitter whose swing is geared to hitting the ball on the ground. I'm a little baffled as to why others (including BA) have him ranked much higher.

Next on my list is Jordan Edgerton. Like Camargo, I think it is pretty unlikely he will develop into a major league regular. But he might make someone a useful bench player. In order to be something more, he will have to develop some power.

Conner Lien is one of those toolsy, athletic outfielders who offers tantalizing glimpses of potential, but who will probably not realize that promise. His main issue is lack of control of the strike zone, with both his walk and strikeout rates in zones that suggest he is going to struggle as he moves up.

No one mentions Omar Obregon as a prospect. But he is one of those little middle infielders who does a better job of using his skills than more talented players. His walk and strikeout rates are superior to the other two middle infielders in this group.

Elmer Reyes is older and more advanced than Camargo and Obregon, and therefore more of a sure thing to reach the majors some day. But the other two have more potential and have shown better walk and strikeout rates in their minor league careers. This leaves them less dependent upon the BABIP gods than Reyes.
 
OK. I'll give my Top 30. For added drama I'll break it up into groups of five working backwards. I'm going to leave off several pitchers who have not pitched this year but would be in the Top 30 if healthy (Fried, Parsons, Winkler), just because of the uncertainty concerning their injuries. I'm also leaving off Toscano since there is no proof the guy exists. Besides his (fake) birth certificate shows he is from Kenya not Cuba, and we know Kenyans are Muslims who don't play baseball and don't love America.

26. Johan Camargo
27. Jordan Edgerton
28. Connor Lien
29. Omar Obregon
30. Elmer Reyes

There are two Nicaraguans in this group of five and I like the more obscure one slightly better.

But let me start with Camargo. I saw him play for Rome last season, and imo he doesn't have the arm or range to stick at short. Realistically, his best chance for a major league career is as a utility infielder. He is a switch hitter whose swing is geared to hitting the ball on the ground. I'm a little baffled as to why others (including BA) have him ranked much higher.

Next on my list is Jordan Edgerton. Like Camargo, I think it is pretty unlikely he will develop into a major league regular. But he might make someone a useful bench player. In order to be something more, he will have to develop some power.

Conner Lien is one of those toolsy, athletic outfielders who offers tantalizing glimpses of potential, but who will probably not realize that promise. His main issue is lack of control of the strike zone, with both his walk and strikeout rates in zones that suggest he is going to struggle as he moves up.

No one mentions Omar Obregon as a prospect. But he is one of those little middle infielders who does a better job of using his skills than more talented players. His walk and strikeout rates are superior to the other two middle infielders in this group.

Elmer Reyes is older and more advanced than Camargo and Obregon, and therefore more of a sure thing to reach the majors some day. But the other two have more potential and have shown better walk and strikeout rates in their minor league careers. This leaves them less dependent upon the BABIP gods than Reyes.

Camargo elicits a ton of varying opinions. Some have him in the top fifteen and others don't have him in the top thirty. Rap on him from those who don't view him as that good a prospect is that he's not particularly athletic.

Good mention of Obregon. Under the radar guy who puts up solid numbers.

Lien is the best of the triumverate toolsy high school OFs (Black, Lien, and Sanchez) who were all drafted in 2012. Lien will make it the farthest of those three, but maybe not all that far. Francoeurish approach at the plate may well spell his doom as a prospect.
 
21. Dilmer Mejia
22. Max Povse
23. Adonis Garcia
24. Alec Grosser
25. Eury Perez

This group is an odd mix of the young and the old.

The youngest prospect on my entire Top 30 list is Dilmer Mejia. He was terrific in the DSL at age 16 and received an unusual mid-year promotion to the GCL. The Braves have had terrible injury luck with young international lefties in recent years. If Mejia stays healthy, he's going to move up the prospects lists fast.

Povse at 6'8 is one of those lanky projectable types that teams love to draft. He's pitched fairly well so far this year in Rome at age 21. A ground ball pitcher with good control who does not generate big strikeout numbers.

I believe prospect lists need to make room for late bloomers and older players. Occasionally, those guys go on to make an impact at the major league level. The success Adonis Garcia is having in AAA at age 30 makes him one of the more intriguing guys on my Top 30 list.

Most of what I said about Povse applies to Alec Grosser. So far he has struggled in Rome, but is also over a year younger than Povse. At this point, both of them are more likely to be relievers than starting pitchers in the majors. It is also worth keeping in mind that those kind of pitchers can suddenly improve with a little more giddyup on the fastball, a sharper more consistent breaking ball, or by developing a feel for the change.

Eury Perez is having a solid season in Gwinnett. He also did well in AAA in the prior two seasons. Every team likes to have a second outfielder like Perez who can play center, either as backup or as the light side of a platoon. If Eric Young Jr continues to struggle, he might soon be given an opportunity at the major league level.
 
OK. I'll give my Top 30. For added drama I'll break it up into groups of five working backwards. I'm going to leave off several pitchers who have not pitched this year but would be in the Top 30 if healthy (Fried, Parsons, Winkler), just because of the uncertainty concerning their injuries. I'm also leaving off Toscano since there is no proof the guy exists. Besides his (fake) birth certificate shows he is from Kenya not Cuba, and we know Kenyans are Muslims who don't play baseball and don't love America.

26. Johan Camargo
27. Jordan Edgerton
28. Connor Lien
29. Omar Obregon
30. Elmer Reyes

There are two Nicaraguans in this group of five and I like the more obscure one slightly better.

But let me start with Camargo. I saw him play for Rome last season, and imo he doesn't have the arm or range to stick at short. Realistically, his best chance for a major league career is as a utility infielder. He is a switch hitter whose swing is geared to hitting the ball on the ground. I'm a little baffled as to why others (including BA) have him ranked much higher.

Next on my list is Jordan Edgerton. Like Camargo, I think it is pretty unlikely he will develop into a major league regular. But he might make someone a useful bench player. In order to be something more, he will have to develop some power.

Conner Lien is one of those toolsy, athletic outfielders who offers tantalizing glimpses of potential, but who will probably not realize that promise. His main issue is lack of control of the strike zone, with both his walk and strikeout rates in zones that suggest he is going to struggle as he moves up.

No one mentions Omar Obregon as a prospect. But he is one of those little middle infielders who does a better job of using his skills than more talented players. His walk and strikeout rates are superior to the other two middle infielders in this group.

Elmer Reyes is older and more advanced than Camargo and Obregon, and therefore more of a sure thing to reach the majors some day. But the other two have more potential and have shown better walk and strikeout rates in their minor league careers. This leaves them less dependent upon the BABIP gods than Reyes.

I am surprised by you saying that you don't think Camargo has the arm to stick at short because most agree that he has a plus arm. I have watched him quite a bit, including both Spring Training and Carolina Mudcats this year, and the scouting reports seem to be accurate as I see a shortstop that seems to have a plus arm but may not have enough range to stick at short. As Kiley McDaniel says: "The Panamanian-born Camargo is an advanced defender at shortstop and has a plus arm, but can make careless errors at times as a results of lapses in concentration. He’s been maturing physically in recent years and is a 45 runner with 45 power, so he may grow out of shortstop, but that would likely come with an increase in power that would allow him to profile at the hot corner. Camargo has solid feel for the zone but needs to integrate power into his swing more often in games."

Further, I am not saying I disagree with you overall on Camargo I am just saying his arm isn't an issue as I see it.

That said, I liked you noting Omar Obregon but I didn't like you dissing my boy Edgerton. :) I am obviously higher on Jordan Edgerton than you but I agree that he'll need to show more power in the future.

PS: Camargo was Rated Best Infield Arm in the South Atlantic League in 2014.
 
I didn't think I was dissing Edgerton. I think he has a better than 50% chance of making the majors, but less than 50% chance of being a regular. I'm just trying to be realistic about how the odds are stacked against all of these kids. I root for them all. But making it to the majors is an extremely difficult endeavor. And those who come close deserve a lot of respect for their talent and work ethic.

Btw I did an analysis once that suggested that the typical farm system at any given moment in time has 25-30 players who have not yet played in the majors but will someday. So the Top 30 to my mind separates those with a better than 50% chance from those with a less than 50% chance. Of course, there are always some good prospects who don't make it and some unheralded ones who do.
 
I didn't think I was dissing Edgerton. I think he has a better than 50% chance of making the majors, but less than 50% chance of being a regular. I'm just trying to be realistic about how the odds are stacked against all of these kids. I root for them all. But making it to the majors is an extremely difficult endeavor. And those who come close deserve a lot of respect for their talent and work ethic.

It's cool, I was partly joking with the dissing comment. He's just one of those on Rome's team that has caught my eye that I am higher on (and that's why I called him my boy). :)
 
Think my preseason list holds up pretty well -- including having Blair Walters in as the last indy signee remaining. No point in making a list this close to the draft, when there figure to be 1-3 top 10 prospects coming out of the early rounds.

Still, like many of the individual player points. I will steal some of them next month.
 
16. Garrett Fulenchek
17. Todd Cunningham
18. Tyrell Jenkins
19. Jason Hursh
20. Matt Lipka

Fulenchek did not produce great results in the GCL last season. But this is not surprising given he comes from a very small town and did not have the same level of polish and high level competition as other top prospects from Texas. The raw material is very good. He has the stuff that will allow him to either be a starter or high leverage reliever.

Cunningham has been hitting well in AAA since the second half of 2014. He projects as a backup center fielder or platoon player. He has competition from Eury Perez for this role, but I like Cunningham better. He has the edge defensively and Perez has the edge on the bases. A switch hitter without a clear pattern of splits. This year he is hitting righties better, the prior two years he hit lefties better. I think he will have a successful major league career as a bench/platoon player.

Jenkins has a live arm, but so far has not generated the kind of strikeout numbers you like to see. Maybe the strikeout rate will improve with a move to the pen.

Hursh. Comments about Jenkins apply here too. I like his ground ball tendencies.

Lipka has gotten off to a nice start. Down the road he will likely compete with Cunningham and/or Perez for the fourth outfielder role. I slightly prefer Cunningham at this point.
 
I think Jenkins is the first prospect on your listing that I've disagreed with. Guy has about as live of an arm (as you noted) as there is in the whole organization. Still at the right side of the age curve for prospects and still is raw in terms of development. I'd put him around 10-12.
 
I think Jenkins is the first prospect on your listing that I've disagreed with. Guy has about as live of an arm (as you noted) as there is in the whole organization. Still at the right side of the age curve for prospects and still is raw in terms of development. I'd put him around 10-12.

The competition for a spot in the Top 15 is pretty stiff.

I'd be surprised if either Jenkins or Hursh ever figures prominently in the Braves starting rotation. They both have a chance to contribute out of the pen.
 
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