nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Do not misunderestimate the Todd.
I will stick to my guns...
- Thread starter VirginiaBrave
- Start date
Do not misunderestimate the Todd.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
fangraphs has the braves finishing up 56-69 for a record of 74-88. That is about what I expect, maybe just a hair low. Team currently on pace for 79 wins
OPS+ is a hair below league average, but runs scored is above average (4.30 v 4.16)...offense has benefited a bit by cluster luck.
Some regression for AJ, Markakis, Freeman, and certainly the bench (Cunningham, ciriaco, gosselin)
Pitching wise, Miller will regress and we should se a bit of progression from Teheran.
I would expect the team to make a couple deals and get even younger as the season goes along. Heaven forbid Freeman or Simmons gets injured or it might get ugly.
OPS+ is a hair below league average, but runs scored is above average (4.30 v 4.16)...offense has benefited a bit by cluster luck.
Some regression for AJ, Markakis, Freeman, and certainly the bench (Cunningham, ciriaco, gosselin)
Pitching wise, Miller will regress and we should se a bit of progression from Teheran.
I would expect the team to make a couple deals and get even younger as the season goes along. Heaven forbid Freeman or Simmons gets injured or it might get ugly.
Fair enough. I think talking about competing this year is just silly anyway. All my focus is on 2016.
If he dips below 500 then he is off the table as an option.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
So would it be fair to count you among those who thought it would be wise to punt on the 2015 season. Or have your views on this evolved recently.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Why are you holding him to a different standard. Lots of teams could use a .400 hitter.
It's fine and dandy to be optimistic after one of the new pitchers nearly throws a no hitter, but this it still a 75 win team. I just hope the front office doesn't do anything stupid to "go for it" this year and jeopardize the rebuild.
I would consider this season a success if young guys like Jace, Peraza, Folty and Wisler make strides towards being MLB regulars, and the current young MLB regulars like Freeman, Simmons, Miller, Teheran and Wood stay healthy. Any wins that come along with it are icing on the cake.
I would consider this season a success if young guys like Jace, Peraza, Folty and Wisler make strides towards being MLB regulars, and the current young MLB regulars like Freeman, Simmons, Miller, Teheran and Wood stay healthy. Any wins that come along with it are icing on the cake.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
What if we are 10 games above .500 at the trade deadline? Do we still look to flip Grilli, Joe Johnson, AJ? Or do we on a very selective basis and without giving up anyone who might be a key part of the future look to upgrade in a couple spots? We do appear to have some cash to play with after the Kimbrel trade.
I did think it was a smart decision to tear it down. I never want my team to stink but in certain situations it makes sense.
I wouldn't stray from the long term plan.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yes. Like last year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I just asked because in another thread you asked me "who wanted to punt the season." I inferred from your comment that you weren't one of those who wanted to punt in 2015.
I don't think any real fan wants to punt a season. We all want to see our teams win. However, there are times when it makes sense to tear things down. Brave fans have witnessed an incredible run of winning and all good things must come to an end. I think the moves that have been made are going to keep this downtime (even though the team is fun to watch) will be brief.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yes, I understand that no one wants to punt for its own sake. Perhaps I should have been more precise and referred to those who thought punting was wise in light of the current state of the team.
Then I would suppose all those people that said our offense would be epicly bad this year will be eating lots of crow.
10 games over .500 at that point would be a pace of about 88-89 wins, and I would be shocked if that's how the season ends up unfolding.
In the unlikely event that the team is in the WC hunt, it would obviously be stupid to trade away any contributing MLB roster piece for whatever marginal prospect might be had in return.
Upgrades, however, could be done as long as they are handled with care. For example, being on the receiving end of a 2+ month salary dump in exchange for a nothing prospect to upgrade the BP or one half of a platoon somewhere would be good. If one of those long term impact bats the team will need for 2017 and beyond becomes available at the deadline (Tulo for instance), then even a blockbuster deal could make sense.
In fact, a trade for Tulo at the deadline might make sense whether the Braves are in contention or not. An IF defense of Tulo/Simmons/Peraza would be historically good.
VirginiaBrave
Well-known member
Talking about competing this year is not silly at this point when that is exactly what is happening. We sit one game under at 18-19. We should be at 19-18, taking into account the Uggla game and the Saturday in Toronto where the umpire call switched mommentum. We still haven't gotten payback games for those yet. What I mean are two miraculous comeback wins since they are supposed to even out. All we have to do is start consistently winning 3 of 5 and we are in this thing. The offense is solid. You can't crap on the effort the first six weeks. It has been outstanding.
I'm as big of a homer as it gets but the fact of the matter is the Braves are 18-19 and for the most part have been relatively healthy. I think we could end up on the high side of 75 wins this season but the unexpected success should not chnage what the overall plan was intended to be.