GDT: 5/31, Braves @ Giants; Day Off For Freeman

[thethe]

And thethe just proved he doesen't understand WAR.

WAR adjusts for position. You're confusing offensive position scarcity. The reason why Andruw gets paid more for an .800 OPS in CF than a 1B does for .850. Because of adjusting for the position WAR takes most of that into account. Not perfectly. Last year qualified players, there were 13 1B with a 2 WAR or higher, there were 11 2B. An insignificant difference. The only reason it's easier to find more 2.0 fWAR players at 1B is health. 2B is one of those positions that players often get hurt at so there are usually less qualified 2B.

So if there are more players at one position that meet that threshold then its easier to find players at that position that meet the threshold. Thats pretty standard Zito.

 

[gilesfan]

Peterson is more likely to reach his projected WAR though, since it is mostly based on defense. If Upton puts up a WAR above 3.5 it will only be for the second time (bref). If Jace indeed puts up a 3 WAR then he'll be pretty close to J Up's median WAR. Think about that for a second.

Sturg makes some good points, but your argument is essentially why I think WAR tends to overate defense. No one in their right mind in baseball circles would consider Peterson to be a similar caliber player to Justin Upton. Finding a 2 WAR 2B isn't really a tough thing to do in todays MLB; Asrubal Cabrera was one last year. There are about 16 2B in 2015 on a pace to surpass 2.0 WAR (not including Utley or Cano)

That is why it's always a tricky endeavor to use WAR (and especially projected WAR over the next 6 years) to compare the trade value of players. Fangraphs typically does a fairly good job at assessing trade value in thie rtrade value charts.

 

[thethe]

And if he flames out and produces 0 WAR then we come out looking bad. There's a reason you trade several prospects for a proven player, and it has to do with burn out.

Great, I can play this game as well. If Jace starts to hit like he has hit in the last 32 games then we are going to look back and say how could hte Padres have ever traded Jace for 1 year of Upton.

 

[thethe]

Sturg makes some good points, but your argument is essentially why I think WAR tends to overate defense. No one in their right mind in baseball circles would consider Peterson to be a similar caliber player to Justin Upton. Finding a 2 WAR 2B isn't really a tough thing to do in todays MLB; Asrubal Cabrera was one last year. There are about 16 2B in 2015 on a pace to surpass 2.0 WAR (not including Utley or Cano)

That is why it's always a tricky endeavor to use WAR (and especially projected WAR over the next 6 years) to compare the trade value of players. Fangraphs typically does a fairly good job at assessing trade value in thie rtrade value charts.

This argument does kind of show how silly WAR is at this point. Glad you all are catching on.

 

[weso1]

While I absolutely love having Peterson, it's clear that Upton has significantly more value. I just can't imagine any team getting more in return for trading Peterson than they would if that team traded J Up, or anything close to it. So value wise I think I'd rather have J Up back and trade him again.

 

[gilesfan]

My original argument was always to discount Jace's WAR. Not sure how to determine the appropriate discount factor however. Since 2012 Upton has had 1 season at 4 WAR and it was exactly 4 WAR. Thats what he looks to be at this point. So far Jace looks like he could be anywhere from a 1.5-2.5 guy. If he does that for 6 years and has a cumulative WAR of 9-15 then regardless of the discount factor I think it comes out with the Braves on top.

I don't agree with this and you keep repeating this over and over. You have to factor in the Padres also get to use a 2B that likely has value. So just imagine they get Upton and a 1 WAR player at 2B for the next 6 years. Combined 30 WAR at LF/2B. The Braves have Peterson (give him 12 WAR for 6 years), the Braves still need to fine a 3 WAR per year LF to match what the Padres have. An example is roughly Seth Smith/Cespedes/Gardner last year.

 

[thethe]

I don't agree with this and you keep repeating this over and over. You have to factor in the Padres also get to use a 2B that likely has value. So just imagine they get Upton and a 1 WAR player at 2B for the next 6 years. Combined 30 WAR at LF/2B. The Braves have Peterson (give him 12 WAR for 6 years), the Braves still need to fine a 3 WAR per year LF to match what the Padres have. An example is roughly Seth Smith/Cespedes/Gardner last year.

But the Braves did not trade 6 years of UPton. This is strictly from the Braves perspective.

 

[gilesfan]

This argument does kind of show how silly WAR is at this point. Glad you all are catching on.

Using WAR isn't silly. Using it while ignoring context is.

 

[thethe]

Using WAR isn't silly. Using it while ignoring context is.

Agreed.

 

[gilesfan]

While I absolutely love having Peterson, it's clear that Upton has significantly more value. I just can't imagine any team getting more in return for trading Peterson than they would if that team traded J Up, or anything close to it. So value wise I think I'd rather have J Up back and trade him again.

Of course and that's what started the whole discussion. thethe being thethe

 

[thethe]

Of course and that's what started the whole discussion. thethe being thethe

Or maybe I was just trying to craft a discussion that masked my true argument....

 

[gilesfan]

But the Braves did not trade 6 years of UPton. This is strictly from the Braves perspective.

They gave up Upton for one year plus whatever draft pick compensation they could have received or any ability to resign him while under contract with the Braves. (possibly more likely to resign Upton now than as an unrestricted FA at the end of this year)

 

[zitothebrave]

So if there are more players at one position that meet that threshold then its easier to find players at that position that meet the threshold. Thats pretty standard Zito.

Well it's 13 out of 23 qualified vs 11 out of 16 qualified. so yeah, it's not easier or harder one way or the other. It's harder to find a healthy 1B. And it includes guys who split time over there. I left them in because Todd Frazier should be a 2 WAR player at 1B and Brandon Moss more or less split time between 1B, RF and LF But he should have been fine if he only played 1B> Not too many guys who double up at 2B. Zobrist being the only one. So again, you don't understand WAR.

 

[zitothebrave]

Or maybe I was just trying to craft a discussion that masked my true argument....

I don't even know what you're doing anymore. It's like you're drunk.

 

[thethe]

Well it's 13 out of 23 qualified vs 11 out of 16 qualified. so yeah, it's not easier or harder one way or the other. It's harder to find a healthy 1B. And it includes guys who split time over there. I left them in because Todd Frazier should be a 2 WAR player at 1B and Brandon Moss more or less split time between 1B, RF and LF But he should have been fine if he only played 1B> Not too many guys who double up at 2B. Zobrist being the only one. So again, you don't understand WAR.

So now you are saying there are even less potential options at 2B that could ever reach that threshold. Hmm...that kind of sounds like its harder to find one at second base.

 

[zitothebrave]

This argument does kind of show how silly WAR is at this point. Glad you all are catching on.

Whta are you talking about? What are you even talking about?

This must be thethe at the keyboard right now.

 

[The Tariff King]

This is something about the suspect and not the crime itself.

I saw those quotes yesterday and I was frankly glad that they were said. Fredi simply acknowledged that Julio is better than how he pitched yesterday. I appreciate the honesty.

Same here. He wasn't throwing JT under. He was sort of showing concern and casually trying to light a fire under him. The honesty was appreciated.

 

[The Tariff King]

This is something about the suspect and not the crime itself.

I saw those quotes yesterday and I was frankly glad that they were said. Fredi simply acknowledged that Julio is better than how he pitched yesterday. I appreciate the honesty.

Same here. He wasn't throwing JT under. He was sort of showing concern and casually trying to light a fire under him. The honesty was appreciated.

 

[zitothebrave]

So now you are saying there are even less potential options at 2B that could ever reach that threshold. Hmm...that kind of sounds like its harder to find one at second base.

Again your grasping of simple facts is sad. 2B is a harder place to play that 1B, it's factored into the positional adjustment. 2B being a hard position to play is why Dan Uggla despite hitting for a truly pathetic 36 wRC_ had a -0.5 fWAR, but Allen Craig in about 3 times as many PA had a -1.6 fWAR with a much higher 69 fWAR. Congrats you understand base concepts of position scarcity, no realize, WAR accounts for it. Maybe not perfectly but it accounts for it.

To KISS a full time 1B will lose 10+ RAR (Freddie lost 12.4) a full time 2B will gain about 2. So it's almost a 1.5 WAR split between a full time 2B and a full time 1B on their postiional adjustments. Comprende?

 

[The Tariff King]

Poor Jace, if he came into this thread he'd essentially read about himself and see that his value is worthless to his own fans.