Heyman: Braves have tried to trade CJ eating alot of the deal.

smootness said:
The Brewers would laugh in our face at an offer of Peraza, Sims, and CJ. Good grief. Sims is quickly running himself out of prospect status, and CJ is a terrible defensive 3B with no speed OPS'ing at .616 and hasn't hit .300 in OBP in 2 years. He has negative value.

Peraza would be the only thing they'd want in that deal, and that doesn't even begin to approach Lucroy's value.
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Ah, exaggeration.

Lucroy is a sensational talent, but you've got to consider the 'mitigating factors'; age, cost, positional wear, health, etc.

Peraza/Sims/CJ is a solid deal. I highly doubt they ultimately get any better than a top prospect, former top prospect (who is scuffling, but could ostensibly rebound to form), and a perfectly useful MLB piece.
 
Hawk said:
Peraza/Sims/CJ is a fantastic deal for Milwaukee in exchange for Lucroy -- and even if they paid the entire remainder of CJ's contract (which people continue to get their panties wadded about, but is a menial amount) they would be insane not to jump on it.

If Lucroy was 2/3 years younger I'd do that deal as a Braves fan. I wouldn't now.
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Sims hasnt been that great.

It would cost one of Wood, Folty, ManBan, Wisler to get Lucroy and other players.

Mil laughs if thats the offer.
 
Hawk said:
Ah, exaggeration.

Lucroy is a sensational talent, but you've got to consider the 'mitigating factors'; age, cost, positional wear, health, etc.

Peraza/Sims/CJ is a solid deal. I highly doubt they ultimately get any better than a top prospect, former top prospect (who is scuffling, but could ostensibly rebound to form), and a perfectly useful MLB piece.
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You calling CJ a useful piece is far more of an exaggeration than anything I said.

CJ is the kind of guy now that makes you take less in return by including in a trade. He isn't worth anything in that trade.

So you get a good MIF prospect and a 1st round pitcher who has been horrible in the minors. That is not enough for a guy who has been between 3-6 WAR the last few years. Not even close.
 
smootness said:
You calling CJ a useful piece is far more of an exaggeration than anything I said.

CJ is the kind of guy now that makes you take less in return by including in a trade. He isn't worth anything in that trade.

So you get a good MIF prospect and a 1st round pitcher who has been horrible in the minors. That is not enough for a guy who has been between 3-6 WAR the last few years. Not even close.
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In this hypothetical, Chris Johnson would start at 3B for Milwaukee in 2016. That's kind of the definition of useful.

Also, I didn't realize GMs now do business entirely on the basis of past production.
 
Hawk said:
In this hypothetical, Chris Johnson would start at 3B for Milwaukee in 2016. That's kind of the definition of useful.

Also, I didn't realize GMs now do business entirely on the basis of past production.
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As long as the Brewers could find a replacement-level player they could put at 3B, they're better off going that route. That's the point.

If they played CJ at 3B, they would win fewer games. That isn't useful.
 
smootness said:
As long as the Brewers could find a replacement-level player they could put at 3B, they're better off going that route. That's the point.

If they played CJ at 3B, they would win fewer games. That isn't useful.
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CJ is still useful though, just so long as he's only playing vs lefties and the few righties he hits. But as a starter rather than a strict platoon he does usually hurt more than help a team.
 
Braves1976 said:
CJ is still useful though, just so long as he's only playing vs lefties and the few righties he hits. But as a starter rather than a strict platoon he does usually hurt more than help a team.
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A guy who is pretty much strictly a PH against lefties has a value approaching 0.
 
smootness said:
A guy who is pretty much strictly a PH against lefties has a value approaching 0.
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CJ hits lefties well enough to be useful starting against them despite his defense at third. Similar to Gomes IMO just at a different position, and CJ has actually been even better vs lefties. In fact, he's hit them a ton the last few years, including a .946 OPS this year. So that is more than just someone to strictly PH against lefties and is useful despite being very overpriced due to his bad contract.

That said, look what y'all are doing to me with this topic! Now I am actually arguing in favor of Chris Johnson even if it's only vs lefties. This is almost as bad as defending Fredi, I need a drink. Later. :)
 
smootness said:
As long as the Brewers could find a replacement-level player they could put at 3B, they're better off going that route. That's the point.

If they played CJ at 3B, they would win fewer games. That isn't useful.
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Without getting too deep into the WAR weeds, Ill say a couple things - CJ is a perfectly decent 3B (roll tape on tonight's game, or just ask Matt Wisler) and he damn near won a batting title year before last, hitting .321 against....everybody.

I get that the board thinks he sucks. I don't. He has his charms. He's a useful piece. MKE could certainly use him. Then Peraza and a pitcher, and I think that's a pretty nice return for Lucroy.

And yes, he's a great catcher, but here again, WAR gets all skewy with the framing and so forth. He's a hell of a nice catcher, but he's not a 7 WAR player.
 
If you as a fan think a trade is fair in return for another teams superstar, then it's probably safe to assume that it isn't close to fair.

CJ has negative value to other teams currently. That's just a fact. He isn't a horrible player, but he has a horrible contract. We've been trying to trade him for months now with no takers. There is a reason for that.

Lucroy is the new face of the franchise since the Braun roid fiasco. He's one of those players that is simply more valuable to his current team than he is to teams trying to trade for him. I can't imagine they would accept anything less than Peraza, Folty (or some other similarly valued pitching prospect), CB, and some other lower level pitching prospect on par with Fulenchek or Povse. Sims is starting to lose the shine of his former top prospect status. Not sure that he would be a real centerpiece anymore in major trade.
 
One kind of trade involving CJ that we should consider is an exchange of bad contracts. We'd be better off if we could get an outfielder with a bad contract in exchange for him. Of course there might have to be other players or money involved to even out the trade.

Outfielders with bad contracts that might be moved include: Cargo, Kemp, Choo, Crawford. There might be a few others but those come to mind. We could plug one of those guys into left field.
 
Carp said:
If you as a fan think a trade is fair in return for another teams superstar, then it's probably safe to assume that it isn't close to fair.

CJ has negative value to other teams currently. That's just a fact. He isn't a horrible player, but he has a horrible contract. We've been trying to trade him for months now with no takers. There is a reason for that.

Lucroy is the new face of the franchise since the Braun roid fiasco. He's one of those players that is simply more valuable to his current team than he is to teams trying to trade for him. I can't imagine they would accept anything less than Peraza, Folty (or some other similarly valued pitching prospect), CB, and some other lower level pitching prospect on par with Fulenchek or Povse. Sims is starting to lose the shine of his former top prospect status. Not sure that he would be a real centerpiece anymore in major trade.
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Well, I wasn't thinking MIL would pay the whole CJ contract. He's overpaid. I was saying he's a useful piece of a deal. Also, Lucroy is a superstar only among the spreadsheet set.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Well, I wasn't thinking MIL would pay the whole CJ contract. He's overpaid. I was saying he's a useful piece of a deal. Also, Lucroy is a superstar only among the spreadsheet set.
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Didn't Lucroy hit .300 last year and set the all time doubles record for a catcher? I think he's regarded by everyone as a star, not just a fangraphs/pitch framing superstar.
 
Carp said:
If you as a fan think a trade is fair in return for another teams superstar, then it's probably safe to assume that it isn't close to fair.

CJ has negative value to other teams currently. That's just a fact. He isn't a horrible player, but he has a horrible contract. We've been trying to trade him for months now with no takers. There is a reason for that.

Lucroy is the new face of the franchise since the Braun roid fiasco. He's one of those players that is simply more valuable to his current team than he is to teams trying to trade for him. I can't imagine they would accept anything less than Peraza, Folty (or some other similarly valued pitching prospect), CB, and some other lower level pitching prospect on par with Fulenchek or Povse. Sims is starting to lose the shine of his former top prospect status. Not sure that he would be a real centerpiece anymore in major trade.
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Agreed. That said, I don't think any team wouldn't like to have a recent Top 100 prospect who's 2 years younger than the average players in Hi-A striking out 8.1 batters/9 IP. Sims needs "tweaks" and work, but he's still just 21 - he's got time. He would arguably be one of their top 3 pitching prospects including the players they drafted this month.

One of the easy mistakes to make when targeting someone in a trade these days is offering to overpay with your first offer when you want a player IMO. The Cardinals did so for Heyward - Miller alone likely would've gotten it done. The Padres did for Justin - Fried, Mallex, and Jace likely would've gotten that done. And on and on. You really need to examine their system, find their holes, and offer to plug as many of them as possible.

I personally believe that you can't afford to "overpay" for a player like Lucroy just because he's cheap when you're rebuilding, even at a position of need. The Braves are currently in a position where they can potentially "solve" the two remaining needs (LF and C) with the best available options in this winter's free-agent class without giving up ANY prospects at all. The finances are available for them to get into a bidding war for J-Up and Wieters with anybody if they so choose. However, Peraza and Sims are becoming "excess" depth that could be utilized to land a LF or C that would allow you to maintain greater financial flexibility by only paying absolute top-dollar for one of those players this winter.

While Catcher declines surprisingly mirror other players' production drops (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/), those dropoffs begin to become significant at age 30 - which both Lucroy and Wieters will be next season. Assuming the Brewers wouldn't take the proposal I mentioned and wanted a better pitching prospect, I'd say "thanks, but no thanks" - that pair will likely net you a Catcher or LF (or other important piece) eventually. If not, it won't hurt to make Peraza a super-utility guy and keep working with Sims to see what he can ultimately become.
 
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