6/23/15: GDT - Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

VirginiaBrave said:
Luck has very little to do with it. Basically they are playing the game the right way. Most of that negative run differential came as a result of a couple blowouts so I don't put a lot of stock in it. What I look at are they doing the little things to win games? Moving runners, etc. That's a resounding yes. Last night is a prime example, Wood was not even close to being on and he still only gave up 2 legit runs. One was on Maybin and he got that back with the homer and came within a foot of winning the game later. Overratedburg dominated us for half the game and the guys still had a chance to win. That's the important thing. That's the mental toughness that wins championships.
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The Nationals are a better team than us. I do t see how you could possibly argue otherwise.
 
gilesfan said:
The Nats are +20 in runs on the year and we are -15. If anything we are a little bit lucky to only be 3 back.
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Both teams are roughly where they should be, though. 5 games over .500 is about right for +20. 1 game under is a little on the good side for a -15, but not by much. The Nats have not been unlucky so far this year in the record they have. They may improve and win more games in the second half, but their record stands about where it should given the way their guys have actually played.

Their rotation has not been good, and their defense is horrendous. Their offense is actually what's carried them so far. Now, you may argue their pitching is due to improve, and it may be, but we'll have to wait and see on that. They'll probably win the division, as they should, but I doubt they go out and win 95+.
 
smootness said:
Both teams are roughly where they should be, though. 5 games over .500 is about right for +20. 1 game under is a little on the good side for a -15, but not by much. The Nats have not been unlucky so far this year in the record they have. They may improve and win more games in the second half, but their record stands about where it should given the way their guys have actually played.

Their rotation has not been good, and their defense is horrendous. Their offense is actually what's carried them so far. Now, you may argue their pitching is due to improve, and it may be, but we'll have to wait and see on that. They'll probably win the division, as they should, but I doubt they go out and win 95+.
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Using Adjusted Equivalent Runs, the Nats should have 38 wins and the Braves should have 31. The Braves have benefitted from cluster luck offensively. The Nats have hit .260/.323/.409 and scored 314 runs while the Braves have hit .258/.322/.370 and scored 295 runs. The data suggests the gap between the two in runs scored should be much more significant.

Pitching wise, the Nats have the following:

8.10 k/9
2.38 bb/9
0.72 HR/9

This equates to a 3.25 FIP, which is 3rd in the NL. Using xFIP would rank them 6th in the NL. Furthermore, they lead the NL in pitching WAR. They have been extremely unlucky having the highest BABIP in the NL at .319.

The Braves have the following:

7.14 k/9
3.25 bb/9
1.00 hr/9.

FIP of 4.16 (12th in NL) and xFIP of 4.16 (13th in NL)

Despite this wide game, the Nats have given up 294 runs to the Braves 310.

Some of the problems with the runs given up is due to defense; which fangraphs has as a 10 run differential.

Substituting projected runs scored (using underlying stats to state how many runs the team "should" have scored ) for actual runs scored; indicates a Nats record of 38-33 and a Braves record of 34-37.

I think the Nats have been a bit unlucky pitching wise and the Braves have been a bit lucky hitting wise. Overall, the Nats might be right were their record should be (or a win below) while the Braves are 2-4 wins higher than what they "should" be. The Nats have also had Fister, Stras, Rendon, Werth, Span, and Zimmerman miss significant time.

In terms of projected wins, fangraphs has the Nats at going 52-39 for a 90-72 record and the Braves going 41-50 with a 76-86 record. I think that projection might be a couple wins shy on each team.
 
gilesfan said:
Substituting projected runs scored (using underlying stats to state how many runs the team "should" have scored ) for actual runs scored; indicates a Nats record of 38-33 and a Braves record of 34-37.
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So pretty much exactly what I said.

I don't think there's any doubt that the main reason the Nats' ERA is much higher than their FIP, while the Braves' is slightly lower, is due to defense. The Braves have elite defense up the middle and now good defense at 3B and a 1B that has limited range but is very good otherwise. They also have an OF defense that is probably about average. The Nats' defense is pretty bad.

That's fine that Fangraphs projects the record that way from here on out. I understand why they do, and I won't be surprised if it plays out that way. But I guarantee you their projected records for each team to this point in the season had a much wider gap than even the 'projected' numbers suggest, as well. As always, we'll just wait and see.

I think the Nats are the obvious easy favorites to win the division, and I think it's very likely the Braves miss the playoffs. I'd be fairly surprised, though, if the gap between the two teams ends up being more than 12 or so games.
 
The Braves have great defense at SS and 2B and good defense at 3B. They are really bad at C and 1B. The outfield defense is certainly below average; all 3 are negative defenders.

If you think the difference will be anywhere near 12 games, it supports my counter to Virginia Brave that essentially claimed the teams were even.
 
Nats are a better team without doubt. But, the Nats have been arguably the best team in the NL for the last 3 years and they don't have much to show for it.
 
CyYoung31 said:
The Nationals are a better team than us. I do t see how you could possibly argue otherwise.
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The standings make my argument for me. 3 games is nothing at this point of the season. I swear if the Braves do catch them, you'll still find some way to belittle the accomplishment...
 
thethe said:
Nats are a better team without doubt. But, the Nats have been arguably the best team in the NL for the last 3 years and they don't have much to show for it.
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Change that to two of the last three years, remember we smoked their overrated butts in 2013...
 
VirginiaBrave said:
Change that to two of the last three years, remember we smoked their overrated butts in 2013...
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You just used the word right there: overrated.

The Nats are NOT a bad team, by any means. But, they are overrated. They've been overrated for the last four years or so.
 
gilesfan said:
The Braves have great defense at SS and 2B and good defense at 3B. They are really bad at C and 1B. The outfield defense is certainly below average; all 3 are negative defenders.
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Pierzynski is obviously not good, though the numbers suggest he isn't the absolute butcher some make him out to be. And sure, Freeman's metrics show him to be pretty well below-average, but I don't think the metrics have figured out a great way to evaluate all the things a 1B does, yet. His range is bad, but he definitely gets us outs here and there than other 1B don't simply by the way he takes throws. Either way, yes, we're below-average at those two spots.

Markakis' numbers say he's below-average, though not by a ton. He's serviceable out there even with limited range. The numbers say Maybin has been slightly below-average this year, but if you take the last several years as a whole, he's about average or slightly above. And obviously when we play Gomes, we're well below-average in left. But Kelly Johnson has been slightly above and Perez is about average.

So I would say on the whole our OF defense is either average or slightly below-average. It isn't bad.
 
VirginiaBrave said:
The standings make my argument for me. 3 games is nothing at this point of the season. I swear if the Braves do catch them, you'll still find some way to belittle the accomplishment...
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Are you ****ing joking? If by some miracle the Braves end up winning the division this year, I'll be jumping for joy down Music Row in the nude. Posts like that make me think you're a troll.
 
In looking at more numbers, it appears the Braves' defense has been rated as roughly average this year, while the Nats have been rated among the worst, if not the absolute worst, in all of baseball. So again, that would explain at least a good bit of the disparity in FIP/ERA numbers.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Are you ****ing joking? If by some miracle the Braves end up winning the division this year, I'll be jumping for joy down Music Row in the nude. Posts like that make me think you're a troll.
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Troll my butt...but I don't use stats to back up everything in baseball...honestly you act like three games is 20...
 
smootness said:
In looking at more numbers, it appears the Braves' defense has been rated as roughly average this year, while the Nats have been rated among the worst, if not the absolute worst, in all of baseball. So again, that would explain at least a good bit of the disparity in FIP/ERA numbers.
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The difference according to fangraphs is 10 runs.
 
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