Braves acquire RHP Touki Toussaint & Bronson Arroyo for Filthy Phil Gosselin

[smootness]

I think the better question is; what are you considering at all? Just the statistics? A ~183 IP sample at high-A? Astute.

For those of us who choose not to make our considerations in a vacuum:

- Sims' progress this season prior to when his team bus flipped over (injuring Sims and several other players)

- Sims' reputation of trying to live up to his selection and $$$

- Sims' reported unhappiness at having to repeat at high-A (while being somewhat reluctant to change anything about his approach)

- Scouting/team personnel reports on the quality of Sims' curveball

- Scouting/team personnel reports on the quality of Sims' fastball

I'd use a term like 'regressing' when he's losing MPH off of his fastball or dealing with significant health issues. It's virtually meaningless in the context you are attempting to use it in.

First, 183 IP is a pretty darn big sample for a prospect, especially over 2 seasons. Second, I don't know what the bus has to do with anything. He hasn't pitched since, so it has nothing to do with his performance. And he had not made progress this year prior to that.

Third, what high draft pick doesn't deal with any kind of pressure and expectation due to that? If that is the cause of his slide, that's not a good sign, especially if it's still ongoing.

Fourth, his unhappiness with repeating the level, especially if it's affecting his performance, is again a bad sign. I'm sure no one's thrilled with repeating a level, but still most (especially those as highly regarded as Sims was) experience significant improvement the second time around.

Finally, the scouting reports are great if they're saying his stuff is still there. But the bottom line is, you have to start performing at some point. A prospect experiencing serious struggles for this long, this early in their development, especially when considering that he is repeating the level, is not a good thing.

Sure, there are always other factors in play. And he still has a chance. But I don't know how anyone could still view him as the same kind of prospect or say that his chances of ultimately making it are still as good as they were. History indicates they aren't.

I have nothing against Sims. I hope he puts it altogether, and I'll be his biggest fan if he does. I'm just going on what he's done and stating my opinion that I doubt at this point he becomes something special.

 

[Braves1976]

Smootness: My view is that you've been overreacting against Sims status as a prospect and that you overstate the sample size for him too. You got on him way too early this year and have continued down that path. It would make more sense if you at least gave him till mid-season before doing so.

 

[Heyward]

I think Sims can still figure it out but given he was picked by the old regime and all the arms the FO has added, i'd put him along with Wood, and minor parts in a deal for a bat this winter.

 

[smootness]

Smootness: My view is that you've been overreacting against Sims status as a prospect and that you overstate the sample size for him too. You got on him way too early this year and have continued down that path. It would make more sense if you at least gave him till mid-season before doing so.

Fair enough. I'm totally fine if people think I'm stupid and still view Sims just like they always have. He's young, and he could certainly get it together. He's a prospect, and people will always have differing opinions of prospects.

I just know from history that the track record of guys who take a step back like he has, especially when carried over into 2 seasons, and even more when repeating the same level, is not good.

I loved Ruiz's potential when we traded for him, but this season has been discouraging. His BB and K rates are still ok, so my view on him hasn't shifted yet. But if he doesn't turn it around, repeats AA again next year and struggles, I'll view him the same way I currently view Sims.

 

[Braves1976]

I think Sims can still figure it out but given he was picked by the old regime and all the arms the FO has added, i'd put him along with Wood, and minor parts in a deal for a bat this winter.

I don't care what regime picked Wood or Sims, but I will argue that trading both of them together plus more for a bat is a bad idea. There are much better ways to add another bat this winter. Further, I am not trading Wood period this winter unless I am blown away by a crazy offer (not likely).

 

[chop2chip]

I don't care what regime picked Wood or Sims, but I will argue that trading both of them together plus more for a bat is a bad idea. There are much better ways to add another bat this winter. Further, I am not trading Wood period this winter unless I am blown away by a crazy offer (not likely).

Agreed. I don't love the idea of having Banuelos as our only LHP option next year. I think we will likely end up trading a couple of these pitchers, but I hope it isn't him.

 

[Hawk]

First, 183 IP is a pretty darn big sample for a prospect, especially over 2 seasons. Second, I don't know what the bus has to do with anything. He hasn't pitched, so it has nothing to do with his performance. And he had not made progress this year prior to that.

Not at High-A Carolina (née Lynchburg). The name of the game is development. I'd agree with you if those numbers had been recorded at AA or above.

It doesn't really require that much reading into: he looked exceptional in his last two starts prior to the injury (13 IP, 10K, 2BB, 2ER).

Third, what high draft pick doesn't deal with any kind of pressure and expectation due to that? If that is the cause of his slide, that's not a good sign, especially if it's still ongoing.

So, now we're donning the hat of a psychiatrist?

Fourth, his unhappiness with repeating the level, especially if it's affecting his performance, is again a bad sign. I'm sure no one's thrilled with repeating a level, but still most (especially those as highly regarded as Sims was) experience significant improvement the second time around.

Again, it's far too premature to suddenly be treating six starts as a 'second time around'.

Finally, the scouting reports are great if they're saying his stuff is still there. But the bottom line is, you have to start performing at some point. A prospect experience serious struggles for this long, this early in their development, especially when considering that he is repeating the level, is not a good thing.

Sure, there are always other factors in play. And he still has a chance. But I don't know how anyone could still view him as the same kind of prospect or say that his chances of ultimately making it are still as good as they were. History indicates they aren't.

I was hoping that your response might provide a little more insight behind why you believe Sims is 'regressing' instead of repeating the same line (which is based on, apparently, just two tenets; that he is in the processing of spending a second year in A-ball and that he has [recently] poor MiLB numbers) and making unsubstantiated claims about 'history indicating' that players who repeat High-A are somehow less likely to succeed going forward in their professional careers. James Shields is an example that immediately comes to mind of a pitcher that struggled in High-A over the course of two years (and at an age older than Sims) but went on to succeed at higher levels. There are plenty of other cases, but I'm not sure what point I'd ultimately be proving.

We should revisit this discussion at the end of the season.

 

[Braves1976]

Fair enough. I'm totally fine if people think I'm stupid and still view Sims just like they always have. He's young, and he could certainly get it together. He's a prospect, and people will always have differing opinions of prospects.

I just know from history that the track record of guys who take a step back like he has, especially when carried over into 2 seasons, and even more when repeating the same level, is not good.

I loved Ruiz's potential when we traded for him, but this season has been discouraging. His BB and K rates are still ok, so my view on him hasn't shifted yet. But if he doesn't turn it around, repeats AA again next year and struggles, I'll view him the same way I currently view Sims.

That is why I usually don't debate you on Sims much. I respect that others have differing opinions on prospects, etc. Further, I have watched Ruiz a bit and I am more concerned about his defense at third than his offense personally. But even that is a small sample so I don't want to say too much. I'll just say he needs to work on his defense at third, not due to errors, just how to play certain balls etc.

 

[smootness]

Hawk, dude, you're the one who introduced potential psychological factors into the discussion. My opinion is based solely on performance.

James Shields is a good name to consider, and it's something to think about. There's no doubt that Sims could end up having a great career and make me look like an idiot.

But yes, history does indicate struggles like this are not a good sign. But we will indeed see at the end of this year and over the next 2-3 years.

BTW, when I say 'regressing' I mean regressing as a prospect, not necessarily that Sims is a worse pitcher now than he was last year or the year before. His status as a prospect across baseball regressing is a fact; that's not limited to me.

 

[Braves1976]

Agreed. I don't love the idea of having Banuelos as our only LHP option next year. I think we will likely end up trading a couple of these pitchers, but I hope it isn't him.

As much as I like Peraza, I could see him being dealt at some point (maybe for an OF bat). It just seems the Braves are leaning towards Peterson as their future at second now. This may make Peraza the one to go in a trade at some point unless he really starts to impress in CF defensively.

 

[smootness]

As much as I like Peraza, I could see him being dealt at some point (maybe for an OF bat). It just seems the Braves are leaning towards Peterson as their future at second now. This may make Peraza the one to go in a trade at some point unless he really starts to impress in CF defensively.

Yeah, and I'm fine with that now, especially with Mallex Smith coming in CF and potentially Maybin if we want to keep him.

We could also pump up his value in trade talks by pushing him as a SS.

 

[Braves1976]

Yeah, and I'm fine with that now, especially with Mallex Smith coming in CF and potentially Maybin if we want to keep him.

We could also pump up his value in trade talks by pushing him as a SS.

If we do end up trading Peraza I hope it's to an AL team I like where I can still cheer for him. But it seems the Yankees might want him the most and I hate the Yankees.

 

[Hawk]

But yes, history does indicate struggles like this are not a good sign. But we will indeed see at the end of this year and over the next 2-3 years.

BTW, when I say 'regressing' I mean regressing as a prospect, not necessarily that Sims is a worse pitcher now than he was last year or the year before. His status as a prospect across baseball regressing is a fact; that's not limited to me.

I don't know that you can automatically view any player who doesn't evenly match this sort of arbitrary 'good' timeline for advancing up the ranks as troublesome. With respect to Sims, I see plenty that encourages me. Both this year and last. I get that you don't, or atleast don't see as much -- but I still question the methodology you are using to come to your conclusions (like the 'history indicates' thing ... it's not that I don't see why you might think that, I just can't find any information that corroborates that statement, and it doesn't align with my way of thinking, which is more traditionally dictated).

Regarding 'regression' -- who else has indicated that Sims is slipping, especially considering that precious few mid-season rankings have been published yet? And under what auspices? I can see him notching downward as the result of an addition like Touki, but have yet to see any information that would suggest it is because of his performance. Yet being the operative word there.

 

[smootness]

I don't know that you can automatically view any player who doesn't evenly match this sort of arbitrary 'good' timeline for advancing up the ranks as troublesome. With respect to Sims, I see plenty that encourages me. Both this year and last. I get that you don't, or atleast don't see as much -- but I still question the methodology you are using to come to your conclusions (like the 'history indicates' thing ... it's not that I don't see why you might think that, I just can't find any information that corroborates that statement, and it doesn't align with my way of thinking, which is more traditionally dictated).

Regarding 'regression' -- who else has indicated that Sims is slipping, especially considering that precious few mid-season rankings have been published yet? And under what auspices? I can see him notching downward as the result of an addition like Touki, but have yet to see any information that would suggest it is because of his performance. Yet being the operative word there.

Well, Baseball America ranked him 57th last year and then didn't put him in the top 100 this year. MLB.com dropped him from 60 to 94. And Baseball Prospectus dropped him from 40 to 54. I would imagine he would probably slip further in any rankings published now as well.

I agree that not everyone will have a clean upward trajectory, but I don't think there are many who see Sims as progressing in development even if the results aren't coming yet. I think most view his struggles as at least somewhat worrisome.

I recognize that I may be turning on Sims too early and I don't think he's done. I'm just losing faith that he will become something.

ETA: I don't think Fangraphs actually does a ranking, but they said the Braves expected a breakout season from him this year and that he would likely open in AA with a chance to take a big step forward. And that's part of where my pessimism comes from on him. This was supposed to be a big year for him, and he really struggled early. Hopefully he comes on strong when he gets healthy, and if he does, I'll start coming around. But repeating and not shooting up in a big year isn't great. The longer it takes to break out, the more likely it is it never comes.

 

[Heyward]

I don't care what regime picked Wood or Sims, but I will argue that trading both of them together plus more for a bat is a bad idea. There are much better ways to add another bat this winter. Further, I am not trading Wood period this winter unless I am blown away by a crazy offer (not likely).

Maybe not both, but i'd consider moving them if the package is great.

 

[Braves1976]

I see according to MLBTR Nats are targeting D'Backs middle infielders. I guess maybe the D'Backs wanted Gosselin to replace one of the middle infielders they're going to trade. I wonder if the Nats are after former Braves prospect Ahmed with the idea that maybe he's the closest SS to Simmons defensively right now. Ahmed ranks second in DRS among shortstops behind only Simmons (Simmons has a 12 DRS and Ahmed is at 9 DRS).

 

[Hawk]

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/...s-ken-rosenthal-notes-062415?vid=471003715773

Dave Stewart:

“The truth is we did not know what Touki’s value would be if we shopped him. There is a lot of speculation on that. People are assuming it would have been better, but we don’t know.
“There was an opportunity to make a deal that gave us more flexibility today as well as next year. We took that opportunity. It’s tough to say we could have gotten more. He was drafted at No. 16, given ($2.7) million. In my opinion, that’s his value.
“To this point, he has pitched OK, he has pitched well. But guys are mentioning that he throws 96 mph. He hasn’t thrown 96 mph since he’s been here. We haven’t seen 96 once. There is some inflation of what people think Touki is.
“We think he’ll be a major-league pitcher. We don’t see it happening in the next three or four years. Maybe five or six years down the road, he’ll show up and be a major-league pitcher. But that is a long ways down the road.”
One rival executive points out that trading a prospect such as Toussaint only a year after drafting him is demoralizing to all those with the D-backs who work in scouting and player development.
Arizona, which entered Thursday just four games out of first place in the NL West, could justify the move by reinvesting the savings at the deadline.
Stewart, though, said that is not necessarily the plan.
“We have not really discussed a lot of what we’re going to do at the trade deadline,” Stewart said. “It’s a surprise to everybody — not just the general public, but also to us — that we’re playing as well as we are and that we’re in the circumstance we’re in.

 

[gilesfan]

I see according to MLBTR Nats are targeting D'Backs middle infielders. I guess maybe the D'Backs wanted Gosselin to replace one of the middle infielders they're going to trade. I wonder if the Nats are after former Braves prospect Ahmed with the idea that maybe he's the closest SS to Simmons defensively right now. Ahmed ranks second in DRS among shortstops behind only Simmons (Simmons has a 12 DRS and Ahmed is at 9 DRS).

Doesn't make any sense to me; they already have 1 too many infielders in Espinosa, Desmond, Rendon, Escobar with Turner waiting in the wings. Espinosa is a better SS than anyone they have.

 

[gilesfan]

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/...s-ken-rosenthal-notes-062415?vid=471003715773

Dave Stewart:

“The truth is we did not know what Touki’s value would be if we shopped him. There is a lot of speculation on that. People are assuming it would have been better, but we don’t know.
“There was an opportunity to make a deal that gave us more flexibility today as well as next year. We took that opportunity. It’s tough to say we could have gotten more. He was drafted at No. 16, given ($2.7) million. In my opinion, that’s his value.
“To this point, he has pitched OK, he has pitched well. But guys are mentioning that he throws 96 mph. He hasn’t thrown 96 mph since he’s been here. We haven’t seen 96 once. There is some inflation of what people think Touki is.
“We think he’ll be a major-league pitcher. We don’t see it happening in the next three or four years. Maybe five or six years down the road, he’ll show up and be a major-league pitcher. But that is a long ways down the road.”
One rival executive points out that trading a prospect such as Toussaint only a year after drafting him is demoralizing to all those with the D-backs who work in scouting and player development.
Arizona, which entered Thursday just four games out of first place in the NL West, could justify the move by reinvesting the savings at the deadline.
Stewart, though, said that is not necessarily the plan.
“We have not really discussed a lot of what we’re going to do at the trade deadline,” Stewart said. “It’s a surprise to everybody — not just the general public, but also to us — that we’re playing as well as we are and that we’re in the circumstance we’re in.

The 2 points that stick out are:

1) How dumb teams that think they are in contention can be
2) He's hasn't hit 96?

 

[thethe]

The 2 points that stick out are:

1) How dumb teams that think they are in contention can be
2) He's hasn't hit 96?

Didn't rival scouts report he was throwing in the mid 90's in his last start before the trade?