Braves acquire RHP Touki Toussaint & Bronson Arroyo for Filthy Phil Gosselin

gilesfan said:
Probably a little optimistic, but definitely promising. Albies is probably a year of good play shy of being top 100. I don't think Folty is a clear top 100 guy. Jenkins probably won't be close.

I still would consider Ruiz as close despite the tough year. Mallex will probably be clear top 100. Don't think Davidson is top 100, but he's moving in a positive direction. Peterson has kind of tailed off a bit late; hopefully just a little slump.
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I think Folty is a clear top 100 guy if you still consider him a prospect. He was easily top 100 before 2014 and had a rough year last year, but was still top 100 according to mlb.com coming into this year. And this year he has flashed some great stuff in the majors. While his overall work in the majors wasn't phenomenal, I think he definitely showed enough to prove to people he can be a starter in the majors, which was the major question surrounding him. I think you would have to put him in the top 100 on potential alone.

I think Albies is a no-doubter now. Fangraphs aggressively put him 34th, and Keith Law had him in the top 100, too, I believe (maybe just really close?) and that was before he had ever played in long-season ball. Now that he has put up the year he has in A ball as one of the youngest players in the entire minor leagues, I think he's done what most were simply waiting on him to do, which is prove it against a higher level. I would be surprised if there's anyone respectable who doesn't have him in the top 100 now.

Ruiz hadn't yet been top 100 by anyone outside of maybe Fangraphs, and his year has been terrible, so I don't see any way he's in the top 100. The guys I listed as 'close' are guys I could see being put in the top 100 right now by someone.

And you may be right on Jenkins, but he's been a top 100 guy in the past at various times, and his stock shot up in the AFL last year, so I think his success in AA this year probably confirms for people that he is healthy again and progressing the way they once expected him to. The only question on him is the K rate.
 
chop2chip said:
I am fairly certain I haven't mentioned Sims ever, so I don't know why you said that.
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Besides this thread? :)

My recollection is smootness, clvclv and you are the three posters I had in mind regarding Sims. And I'm not sure if you have been bringing up the discussions. But it sure seemed you'd been agreeing with them. Which is fine as y'all are entitled to your opinions on Sims too.
 
Braves1976 said:
Besides this thread? :)

My recollection is smootness, clvclv and you are the three posters I had in mind regarding Sims. And I'm not sure if you have been bringing up the discussions. But it sure seemed you'd been agreeing with them. Which is fine as y'all are entitled to your opinions on Sims too.
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I seemingly can't recall an instance where I have ever referred to Sims besides the one just barely. I don't consider him garbage by any means. All I said was that his stock has lowered in since he was 19 based off poor performance. I don't see how that isn't true.
 
Braves1976 said:
Besides this thread? :)

My recollection is smootness, clvclv and you are the three posters I had in mind regarding Sims. And I not sure if you have been bringing up the discussions. But it sure seemed you'd been agreeing with them. Which is fine as y'all are entitled to your opinions on Sims too.
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I have crapped on Sims, and perhaps I did so too soon. But after a great start in A ball in 2013, he took a step back last year in A+, and now after repeating the level, his K rate is improved (though still not phenomenal for a 21-year-old) but all his other numbers are worse. He has a WHIP of over 1.5; his peripherals are not great. I just doubt at this point he becomes anything; I listed him as a guy I think has a shot to get back into the top 100 within a year simply because he's been there before and could theoretically turn it on at any moment, but my hope in that is fading quickly. This is now a 2-year trend of troubling results, and usually guys improve their numbers substantially when repeating a level.

With regard to Toussaint, if the reports are true that he hasn't really been using his curveball, or not much, then his results this year are actually extremely promising and it makes it all the more puzzling from Arizona's perspective. His curve is his best pitch and potentially one of the best pitches in the minor leagues, and he's still having reasonable success?

I know for a fact that he did use his curve in his last start, and his line was: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB/5 K. I think you may see him dominate going forward this year, though he will still have to continue working on his command. I'm hoping to go see him in his first Rome start, whenever that will be this week.
 
chop2chip said:
I seemingly can't recall an instance where I have ever referred to Sims besides the one just barely. I don't consider him garbage by any means. All I said was that his stock has lowered in since he was 19 based off poor performance. I don't see how that isn't true.
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OK. I was just going by what I read here and recollection from past discussions. I was thinking of smootness more than you anyway.
 
thethe said:
I won't give up on a young kid with a big arm like that. He has plenty of time.
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Agreed. Sometimes analyzing a prospect requires a circumspect evaluation of a variety of factors, not just mindless cherry-picking of statistics which vaguely support a theory which dictates a 21 year old prospect is suddenly washed up/tainted/regressing. Good lord.
 
Hawk said:
Agreed. Sometimes analyzing a prospect requires a circumspect evaluation of a variety of factors, not just mindless cherry-picking of statistics which vaguely support a theory which dictates a 21 year old prospect is suddenly washed up. Good lord.
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Everything that made Sims a top prospects 2 years ago is still relevant now.

1. Size
2. Stuff
3. Projectability

More importantly, he has been pretty durable for his career thus far which is a huge plus.
 
Hawk said:
Agreed. Sometimes analyzing a prospect requires a circumspect evaluation of a variety of factors, not just mindless cherry-picking of statistics which vaguely support a theory which dictates a 21 year old prospect is suddenly washed up/tainted/regressing. Good lord.
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Exactly. I am not saying Sims is the next Venters, but it reminds me of arguing with some posters at Scout about Jonny Venters. These posters thought Venters was a nothing prospect and one said he might get released. They were of course looking at his stats in AAA that year.
 
thethe said:
Everything that made Sims a top prospects 2 years ago is still relevant now.

1. Size
2. Stuff
3. Projectability

More importantly, he has been pretty durable for his career thus far which is a huge plus.
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While this is mostly true, his projectability certainly isn't what it used to be. At some point, if you're not progressing, then your projection is not what it was.

While he theoretically still has time since he's only 21, most starters who eventually become something are either past A-ball by this point or are at least having much more success there than he is having. There will always be outliers, and he could be one, but the numbers do suggest his chances are dwindling.
 
Hawk said:
Agreed. Sometimes analyzing a prospect requires a circumspect evaluation of a variety of factors, not just mindless cherry-picking of statistics which vaguely support a theory which dictates a 21 year old prospect is suddenly washed up/tainted/regressing. Good lord.
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So what are the factors I'm not considering? I'm sure we could go individually through each of the Braves prospects and find reasons why their numbers could be better or why their numbers don't tell the whole story. But when you repeat a level and your subpar numbers actually get worse, especially once you're no longer really young for your level, there's reason to believe you aren't the top prospect you used to be. I'm not saying he's completely washed-up or that he's done; in fact, I specifically said he still has a chance. But he is regressing, both in results and in prospect status.
 
thethe said:
I won't give up on a young kid with a big arm like that. He has plenty of time.
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I'm not sure how many on here have seen Sims. I've given reports on what I see that's it. I think I can speak on more than few prospects as I see them from AAA, A+, A and a handful of rookie games. Sims has a great set of tools. He can't stand prosperity though. If he gives up a run, his adjustments take a hit. He's a better pitcher but the results aren't all that great. The big innings...and at times straight fastballs affect him. I like him. I don't necessarily like the results.
 
smootness said:
So what are the factors I'm not considering? I'm sure we could go individually through each of the Braves prospects and find reasons why their numbers could be better or why their numbers don't tell the whole story. But when you repeat a level and your subpar numbers actually get worse, especially once you're no longer really young for your level, there's reason to believe you aren't the top prospect you used to be. I'm not saying he's completely washed-up or that he's done; in fact, I specifically said he still has a chance. But he is regressing, both in results and in prospect status.
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I think the better question is; what are you considering at all? Just the statistics? A ~183 IP sample at high-A? Astute.

For those of us who choose not to make our considerations in a vacuum:

- Sims' progress this season prior to when his team bus flipped over (injuring Sims and several other players)
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- Sims' reputation of trying to live up to his selection and $$$
- Sims' reported unhappiness at having to repeat at high-A (while being somewhat reluctant to change anything about his approach)
- Scouting/team personnel reports on the quality of Sims' curveball
- Scouting/team personnel reports on the quality of Sims' fastball

I'd use a term like 'regressing' when he's losing MPH off of his fastball or dealing with significant health issues. It's virtually meaningless in the context you are attempting to use it in.
 
I'm basically with Callis. Just a weird trade.

I like Gosselin more than most here, but he's at best he's Ryan Roberts with less power. Puzzled a bit on the money we have for Arroyo, but that's only puzzling to the extent I thought we were intent on not taking on any more salary. Toussaint appears to be a plus prospect, so here' hoping things fall together for him.

Let's wait on Sims. My rule of thumb is you want a prospect in AA by the time you have to make a 40-man roster decision on him. That would give him until the end of the 2016 season.
 
IIRC multiple scouts have said the stuff for Sims has backed up some.

That said we heard similar things about Tehran and his last year in AAA the results were bad. Remember when many were thinking Delgado was better?

I agree with thethe in the sense that he's still super young and talented. It often helps those type of guys to struggle for a year or two so they can make adjustments and come out as better people. A little immaturity out of a 20 y/o isn't the end of the world IMO.

That said, I would expect that Sims is no longer an untouchable like he was with the old guard. If you look at our elite guys, I expect he'd be more expendable than Wisler and Folty. Probably more expendable than Jenkins and our first two picks this year. New regime.
 
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