Trade Deadline/Rumors thread

gilesfan said:
They have gotten pretty much nothing from Span and Desmond this year so based on a straight comparison of 2015 to 2016, they will almost certainly provide a higher WAR. Comparing to 2014, they would need to provide 8 wins, which isn't happening. Taylor is on base for about 3 wins this year, which is probably about right with his defense in center field. Turner will provide speed and play solid defense, can't imagine him being under a 2 win player.

They got 25 WAR combined from everyday players in 2014 and 23.2 in 2013. So, with starters, they are probably shooting for 23-25.

Harper- 7 (?)
Rendon 4.5
Escobar/Espinosa/Turner- 5
Taylor 3
Ramos 1.5

That leaves about 2-6 or so to get from Werth/Zimmerman. I think they will be fine position player wise. Catcher being the biggest weakness, but just about every team is struggling at catcher. Werth/Zim will be injury concerns going forward, Im sure.

I'm not a big fan of Gio, but somehow he seems to put a mid 3 ERA up, which is fine for a number 3, which is what he will likely be.

Lopez is a potential game changer, but is far away. Joe Ross is putting together a handful of interesting starts and appears to be making a case for the rotation. I can't believe they got Ross and Turner for Souza.

As I mentioned earlier, they have 40 million coming off the books to upgrade at certain spots. Maybe another starting pitcher; maybe a catcher.

Right now they are on a 87 win pace while getting nothing from Rendon, Zimmermann, Fister, Werth, Strasburg.

Projecting to next year, they potentially lose:

Span- 1.4
Desmond -(0.2)
Zimmermann- 2.5
Fister 0.2

Total- 3.9 war (compared to this year so far)
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Fantastic read...Really.

:mad:
 
gilesfan said:
They have gotten pretty much nothing from Span and Desmond this year so based on a straight comparison of 2015 to 2016, they will almost certainly provide a higher WAR.
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That still seems like a reach to me.

As I mentioned earlier, they have 40 million coming off the books to upgrade at certain spots.
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Well, the amount of free money decreases with the addition of Chapman/Kimbrel -- leaving them with barely enough cash to afford a replacement for Zimmermann.

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The WAR perspective is intriguing, not sure how I value it in terms of predicting the contributions of farm talent or potential returns from injured guys.
 
How have the Nats "gotten pretty much nothing" out of Span this year? He's been really good since coming back in his 59 games (1.4 WAR in that time).

Taylor is really going to struggle to hit at the ML level. He strikes out wayyyyyy too much.
 
Hawk said:
That still seems like a reach to me.

Well, the amount of free money decreases with the addition of Chapman/Kimbrel -- leaving them with barely enough cash to afford a replacement for Zimmermann.
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I have no idea how they've "gotten nothing" from Span when he has the same WAR as Taylor in 23 less games. Taylor's defense is very good, but there's clearly huge holes in that bat that could further get exposed.
 
Burnedstang said:
Speaking of Chris Johnson, is there a legitimate chance he actually gets traded? even if it is for a bag of baseballs and a rosin bag? havent heard much about him lately
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I honestly doubt it, but after seeing Hart move BJ Upton (who had a contract that was literally one of the worst in the history of the game) I refuse to count anything entirely out.
 
Hawk said:
That still seems like a reach to me.

You don't think Taylor and Turner will put up a combined 2 WAR?

Well, the amount of free money decreases with the addition of Chapman/Kimbrel -- leaving them with barely enough cash to afford a replacement for Zimmermann.

---

The WAR perspective is intriguing, not sure how I value it in terms of predicting the contributions of farm talent or potential returns from injured guys.
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Im not sure what their payroll limit is; if they have one. Depends probably in part to how much the Oreos pay them. I wouldn't expect a big replacement for Zimmmermann, I think they try to re-sign him and if they don't, they go into next year with Max, Stras, Gio, Roark, Ross with Giolito looming later on in the season. (then decide if they need to make a move for a starter)
 
yeezus said:
I have no idea how they've "gotten nothing" from Span when he has the same WAR as Taylor in 23 less games. Taylor's defense is very good, but there's clearly huge holes in that bat that could further get exposed.
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They've gotten 1.4 WAR. Taylor will bypass that with defensive WAR alone next year.
 
gilesfan said:
Im not sure what their payroll limit is; if they have one. Depends probably in part to how much the Oreos pay them. I wouldn't expect a big replacement for Zimmmermann, I think they try to re-sign him and if they don't, they go into next year with Max, Stras, Gio, Roark, Ross with Giolito looming later on in the season. (then decide if they need to make a move for a starter)
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The Nationals are already spending like a top 5 team with a revenue that doesn't scratch the Top 10. Lerner wants to win now, like you said, but their payroll at $160MM+ (in 2015 dollars) doesn't seem sustainable given their economics. Even with MASN/Baltimore money if they spend any higher they'll run into the luxury tax.

I'll be honest ... that rotation doesn't exactly induce pangs of fear, but then again neither does that 2016 lineup you posted earlier.
 
zitothebrave said:
I'd keep it simple, Tron and Miller. THey get a cheap high quality MLB SS, and a cheap high quality MLB SP. Then I'd offer Donaldson whatever it takes to extend him. Build the team around he and Freeman, sign Price in the offseason, profit.
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That would be beyond horrendous for us. Simmons and Miller, at 25 and 24, have been worth much more (combined) than Donaldson at 29 this year. Why would we do that?

I misread Donaldson's contract at first. You have him through 2018. But I don't want a long-term extension for a guy nearing 30.

And Simmons and Miller are more likely to hold their current value or improve going forward than Donaldson.
 
And it is FAR from uncommon for a guy like Taylor to struggle more and more as a major leaguer with the massive holes in his swing. Look at how Souza is struggling and he struck out a good bit less than Taylor in the minors. He won't be in the lineup hitting .200 with 220 Ks.
 
yeezus said:
And it is FAR from uncommon for a guy like Taylor to struggle more and more as a major leaguer with the massive holes in his swing. Look at how Souza is struggling and he struck out a good bit less than Taylor in the minors. He won't be in the lineup hitting .200 with 220 Ks.
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Totally agree. I've said for a while I think Taylor is a decent prospect but not a very good one. He's already 24, so it's not like he's just a really young guy still figuring it out. He hasn't been stealing a lot of bases this year, and his defense in LF has been good, but nothing phenomenal. He could improve going back to his natural position, but you would think a great defensive CF would be doing incredible things in LF.

I think his likely ceiling is still a fairly low average, low OBP guy with pop playing good CF with good speed but without a ton of steals. That is a decent piece, but it doesn't really change anything for your team.
 
Hawk said:
The Nationals are already spending like a top 5 team with a revenue that doesn't scratch the Top 10. Lerner wants to win now, like you said, but their payroll at $160MM+ (in 2015 dollars) doesn't seem sustainable given their economics. Even with MASN/Baltimore money if they spend any higher they'll run into the luxury tax.

I'll be honest ... that rotation doesn't exactly induce pangs of fear, but then again neither does that 2016 lineup you posted earlier.
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I think Lerner is the richest owner in baseball and the Oreos owe them about $65 million per year in rights fees plus potentially all the ones in the past that they skipped out on paying. I have no idea what there limit on payroll is to be honest, I don't think anyone ever speaks out on it except Rizzo saying if he wants more, he spends more. Their revenue last year was 9th at 287 million according to Forbes (and I don't believe includes the money the Oreos owe them)

I don't think the 2016 team as it sits is a 100 win team or anything, but it's a very good base to win at least 90 depending on the moves from now until then.
 
yeezus said:
While being a negative on offense.
1.4 WAR in 59 games isn't "pretty much nothing" either way.
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Overall, next years team would lose the 1.4 WAR from Span (based on 2015). Are you an idiot or just hard of reading? Whether the 1.4 was in 5 games or 162; that is what they are losing based on right now. It's not rocket science for most.
 
yeezus said:
And it is FAR from uncommon for a guy like Taylor to struggle more and more as a major leaguer with the massive holes in his swing. Look at how Souza is struggling and he struck out a good bit less than Taylor in the minors. He won't be in the lineup hitting .200 with 220 Ks.
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He will certainly be in the everyday lineup, even if he hits in the low .200s because he provides elite defense in center field with a little bit of pop.
 
gilesfan said:
I think Lerner is the richest owner in baseball and the Oreos owe them about $65 million per year in rights fees plus potentially all the ones in the past that they skipped out on paying. I have no idea what there limit on payroll is to be honest, I don't think anyone ever speaks out on it except Rizzo saying if he wants more, he spends more. Their revenue last year was 9th at 287 million according to Forbes (and I don't believe includes the money the Oreos owe them)

I don't think the 2016 team as it sits is a 100 win team or anything, but it's a very good base to win at least 90 depending on the moves from now until then.
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Oops, sorry, I was looking at 2013 figures. Nevertheless, they are spending with the likes of LAA/NYY/BOS and that's just not likely sustainable given their demo.

Mark Lerner: “We’re beyond topped out [...] Our payroll has skyrocketed to like $140 million. It’s in the papers. I don’t think we can go much further with the revenue streams that we have.”
 
smootness said:
Totally agree. I've said for a while I think Taylor is a decent prospect but not a very good one. He's already 24, so it's not like he's just a really young guy still figuring it out. He hasn't been stealing a lot of bases this year, and his defense in LF has been good, but nothing phenomenal. He could improve going back to his natural position, but you would think a great defensive CF would be doing incredible things in LF.

I think his likely ceiling is still a fairly low average, low OBP guy with pop playing good CF with good speed but without a ton of steals. That is a decent piece, but it doesn't really change anything for your team.
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Huh, he's saved 6 runs in only 287 innings in left field (UZR/150 of 28.8) He blows out every defensive metric in his time in left field.
 
gilesfan said:
the Oreos owe them about $65 million per year in rights fees plus potentially all the ones in the past that they skipped out on paying.
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Sorry to go off on a tangent here, but this pisses me off every time I see a reference to it.

Why the hell are the Orioles having to pay the Nationals that much every year? It just makes it that much harder for the Braves (and the rest of the division for that matter) to compete when the richest team in the league is getting subsidies on top of their already sufficient revenues.
 
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