Defense is not important. Let's ask Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux how much they appreciated Andruw roaming the outfield. lol
Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
Did I say he was worth the money? I just said he wasn't horrible at the plate like you are trying to make it out to be. It's not my fautl you understand statics and how to value players. And Heyward did help us win. A lot actually. He wasn't the reason the Braves sucked last year. That would be BJ, Uggla, CJ, etc.
Olivera has a chance to be a decent bat, but I can't stress how questionable it is. He's a Cuban with a injury history so there is no real track record to look at. Many Cubans are projected as stud hitters and come over and don't translate. Olivera has about 50 at bats in the minors as a 30 year old. He's had injuries including a blood disorder and reportedly is bad defensively. So, what does Olivera have to do to make this trade worthwhile? Become a 4 WAR third basebman over the course of 4-5 seasons? If that is worth it in your mind, a bad defensive 3B has to hit the **** out of the ball to reach that level. Is that enough to give up Peraza and Wood? Peraza probably gives you 12 wins over 6 years; is that a fair estimate? Wood probably gives you 12 over the next 4 years as a rough estimate, no?
Why I think highly of Wood:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-upgrade-rotation-in-unexpected-intelligent-way/
Jeff wrote up the reasons for optimism surrounding Mat Latos this morning, back when this looked like a pretty bland two team deal, but the prize here is clearly Alex Wood, who isn’t at the level of Hamels or Price but also isn’t quite as far behind as you might think. Here are the the numbers for those three pitchers since 2013, the first year of Wood’s big league career.
Name/IP/BB%/K%/GB%/HR/FB/LOB%/BABIP/ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-
David Price 581 4% 24% 42% 9% 73% 0.300 82 76 79
Alex Wood 368 7% 22% 47% 8% 77% 0.316 84 85 92
Cole Hamels 553 7% 24% 45% 9% 76% 0.295 86 83 88
Price is on another level — his ERA is only close to the other two because of a low strand rate, but that’s a short-term fluctuation, as his career results line up with his excellent peripherals — but Wood’s numbers aren’t that different than Hamels, albeit in about 60% of the innings. Certainly, he doesn’t have the track record of either of the two multiple-time All-Stars, and his combination of a painful-looking delivery, a decrease in velocity, and a drop in strikeout rate make him a significantly more risky asset than the established stars, but clearly, the upside for him to pitch at a high level is there. He’s done it for roughly the equivalent of two full seasons, after all.
Note on the decreased velocity:
Truthfully, it was a difference in mechanics, without a doubt. My direction toward the plate changed, which actually gave my sinker more movement, but with the sacrifice of a little velocity. One of my offseason goals is to kind of settle on a happier medium between the two.
This sums up the Dodgers side:
Between taking on the rest of Morse’s salary and essentially eating Olivera’s signing bonus, the Dodgers are using roughly $40 million to acquire Wood, Latos, Peraza, and Jim Johnson; the prospects they’re sending away are of minimal consequence, and Paco Rodriguez is out for the year following elbow surgery. To get back two solid major league starters, a quality reliever, and a legitimate prospect in exchange for essentially agreeing to pay Olivera’s signing bonus for the Braves and take on the money left on Morse’s deal is a remarkable bargain for Los Angeles.
The line about getting Price and Cespedes in a deal centered around Wood? Don't worry, we got a 30 year old 3B with 0 major league at bats instead.
Why I think highly of Wood:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-upgrade-rotation-in-unexpected-intelligent-way/
Jeff wrote up the reasons for optimism surrounding Mat Latos this morning, back when this looked like a pretty bland two team deal, but the prize here is clearly Alex Wood, who isn’t at the level of Hamels or Price but also isn’t quite as far behind as you might think. Here are the the numbers for those three pitchers since 2013, the first year of Wood’s big league career.
Name/IP/BB%/K%/GB%/HR/FB/LOB%/BABIP/ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-
David Price 581 4% 24% 42% 9% 73% 0.300 82 76 79
Alex Wood 368 7% 22% 47% 8% 77% 0.316 84 85 92
Cole Hamels 553 7% 24% 45% 9% 76% 0.295 86 83 88
Price is on another level — his ERA is only close to the other two because of a low strand rate, but that’s a short-term fluctuation, as his career results line up with his excellent peripherals — but Wood’s numbers aren’t that different than Hamels, albeit in about 60% of the innings. Certainly, he doesn’t have the track record of either of the two multiple-time All-Stars, and his combination of a painful-looking delivery, a decrease in velocity, and a drop in strikeout rate make him a significantly more risky asset than the established stars, but clearly, the upside for him to pitch at a high level is there. He’s done it for roughly the equivalent of two full seasons, after all.
Note on the decreased velocity:
Truthfully, it was a difference in mechanics, without a doubt. My direction toward the plate changed, which actually gave my sinker more movement, but with the sacrifice of a little velocity. One of my offseason goals is to kind of settle on a happier medium between the two.
This sums up the Dodgers side:
Between taking on the rest of Morse’s salary and essentially eating Olivera’s signing bonus, the Dodgers are using roughly $40 million to acquire Wood, Latos, Peraza, and Jim Johnson; the prospects they’re sending away are of minimal consequence, and Paco Rodriguez is out for the year following elbow surgery. To get back two solid major league starters, a quality reliever, and a legitimate prospect in exchange for essentially agreeing to pay Olivera’s signing bonus for the Braves and take on the money left on Morse’s deal is a remarkable bargain for Los Angeles.
The line about getting Price and Cespedes in a deal centered around Wood? Don't worry, we got a 30 year old 3B with 0 major league at bats instead.
sturg33
I
I'd like to point out that Heyward was brought by the usual suspect... not the "defenders"
Douche.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Wainwright was traded when he was 23 with zero MLB experience... Miller was traded when he was 24 with MLB success already and was ranked a much higher prospect in the minors... what exactly are you trying to argue here?
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I was saying he was not worth the money and that's why he was traded... I was also claiming that he was not the difference in us being terrible and/or making us win... neither of those claims are false. He may have not been horrible at the plate, but he was not near worth what he was looking for.
Well I'm sorry you don't understand certain things. Defensive WAR matters. Just like actual defense matters. The thing with dWAR is that a given year is such a small sample size that you can't use that single season as a predictor of what to expect. It doesn't change the fact that that's what the player did that year. So as far as value in a single season goes? Yes dWAR is fine. Using that to predict the future? Not so much. That's why you need several seasons to get a good picture of a players actual worht on defense. And Heyward has passed that with flying colors. So yes he is indeed good as his dWAR suggests.
keithlaw
Playing the Waiting Game
You'd think he'd be more than willing to eat crow.
I'm 'arguing' that there are different circumstances behind what made each player available in trade. You are reading more into that at your own detriment.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Actually, he was indirectly brought up by the defenders... talking about how Wood was our best starting pitcher.... even though he is not. Simply because Heyward lovers cannot praise Shelby Miller in the least.
Wainwright was 23 with zero experience and got a much higher return.
the exact words out of your mouth was that he was horrible the last two years at the plate. you were wrong.
sturg33
I
? Was speaking of thethe bringing him up... it's usually him or heyward - the poster
chipchildress
Awaiting a Promotion
I bet they appreciated chipper's bat more.
sturg33
I
No. He was brought up when thethe said this trade may end up "smelling like roses, like the Heyward deal"
Wow...There's a lot going on here. It seems emotions are running high. So if we take the relievers and prospects out of the equation, we traded Wood and Peraza for Olivera, 28 Million, and a 1st round pick. I can't say I hate that trade. I do wonder what we would have received from other teams for a Wood/Peraza combo, but the FO seems very high on Olivera. If the Kimbrel/Melvin trade would have happened 2 weeks earlier we might have matched the Dodgers, but at the time we did not have the money. We're never going to outbid the Dodgers.
I think Olivera fits in nicely as a #3 hitter between our lefty table setters and Freeman, and solidifies our infield now with Freeman, Peterson, and Simmons. I know he's 30, but he's cheap and that's big as it will allow us to go after one of the aces this offseason, (preferably David Price since we traded away our best lefty) and still have money to address LF and C.
I think Olivera fits in nicely as a #3 hitter between our lefty table setters and Freeman, and solidifies our infield now with Freeman, Peterson, and Simmons. I know he's 30, but he's cheap and that's big as it will allow us to go after one of the aces this offseason, (preferably David Price since we traded away our best lefty) and still have money to address LF and C.
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Hart probably wants to put Teheran in the deal, too. And is having to be restrained.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I never said defensive WAR doesn't matter... I said it over inflates the final WAR value... it does, and I'm far from the only one who has that view. No one is saying Heyward isn't a fantastic defender.
sturg33
I
I wouldn't say we got $32M in this deal... that's not exactly accurate