Implications of the Trade

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
The other thread has plenty of discussions of the pros and cons. I think we can leave that for there.

In terms of implications for the off-season and next season I see a few:

1) A significant amount of the depth that would have been provided by Peraza (who can play all over the infield and outfield) now will fall upon the shoulders of Daniel Castro and Mallex Smith. Note I am focusing on near-term implications for next season here. There is still the longer term question of how Peraza, Castro and Smith develop. But it will years before we will know the answer to that.

2) I have been arguing that we have seven major league ready starters for next years rotation and that this does not represent a surplus. That number is now down to six (Miller, Teheran, Wisler, Perez, Banuelos and Folty). If Jenkins performs strongly in the second half we could add him to the list. As things currently stand, I think we will be in the market for a FA pitcher. Is that good or bad? In general I don't like handing out free agent deals to pitchers. But maybe we will find a bargain.

3) We have created some additional financial flexibility by having the Dodgers take on Arroyo's contract and pay Olivera's bonus. So we have more to spend on other needs (catcher, left, bullpen, and that starting pitcher). Note we have created a new need in the starting rotation. Depending on how much we spend there, it remains to be seen if there is more left for catcher, left and bullpen.

4) We have doubled down on Jace Peterson at second.

5) Given the ages of the key parts of the deal (Olivera, Wood and Peraza), the net of this deal moves forward some wins into the 2016 and 2017 seasons at the expense of wins further out.

Anything else?
 
Tapate50 said:
Minor could return to pitch for us if we choose to let him.
Click to expand...

That was an option before the deal. And it remains one. Does the deal make it more likely we offer him arbitration, or work out some agreement to keep him. Maybe. But I'm not sure it moves the needle much.
 
sturg33 said:
I don't have much confidence in Jace going forward, TBH... Good backup player, not a starter
Click to expand...

No doubt we have made a bigger commitment to Jace. I would have liked to have a strong option in Peraza in case Jace does not work out.

Also if Simmons goes down for a month or two, our options at short now are Castro and Ciriaco.
 
Good synopsis.

I wonder about Peterson myself. Clearly a good defender who has performed reasonably well at the plate. I wonder about his upside, but he's at least a decent placeholder.

C and OF are the biggest holes, which to me pretty much assures Maybin's return. Hard to know what to do about C.

Agree that we will likely look for a mid-to-back end rotation guy in free agency or through a low cost trade. Maybe Minor returns.
 
2016 will be a transition year and On the Job training for some of the younger starters. Besides, there's a lot of time between now and next April. The rotation isn't set in stone for next year, based on message board conjecture. They're by no means done.
 
One thing to watch will be Olivera's defense at third. I think the fallback option might be to move him to left.
 
nsacpi said:
No doubt we have made a bigger commitment to Jace. I would have liked to have a strong option in Peraza in case Jace does not work out.

Also if Simmons goes down for a month or two, our options at short now are Castro and Ciriaco.
Click to expand...

I can see us picking up a utility guy who can play 2B, 3B, and LF.
 
Chico said:
I can see us picking up a utility guy who can play 2B, 3B, and LF.
Click to expand...

Yup. At a minimum we have a need for a high quality AAAA type guy to stash in Gwinnett. If we still had him, Gosselin would have been a candidate.
 
One more speculative implication is that we might be more likely to hold on to CJ given questions about Olivera's ability to play 160 games. Alternatively, we might sign someone like KJ and let CJ go. We can rule out someone like Uribe who is more starter quality. Unless we decide Olivera should be in left.
 
Olivera is going to be very cheap going forward. Avg cost is 7 million a year. In today's market if he's a 1 WAR or better player he's a bargain right? I'm trying to warm up to the trade. Last night I was thinking that maybe Olivera could be what we thought we were getting in Uggla, but for a lot less money. If his arm holds up and he's ok I think Simba can make up for a lot at 3B. Also wouldn't mind moving him to 2B if we could find a way get a 3B better than Peterson.

Guys we have signed long term are mostly on team friendly deals. FF, Olivera, Simba, Tehran (even if he's not the stud we thought). Only bad ones are Markakis and CJ. I think we're out of the dead money unless we add CJ to that pile.

Now that we've cleared out some room on the 40 man and the 25 man, why not keep CJ? He can hit lefties and we have to pay him anyway.

I think we'll need to lock up Miller this offseason. I think we'll need a FA starter...not sure if we'll go Price level but maybe we'll get a Fister. I think we'll need a bat, but Cespedes is the only one I want and I may not want him depending on the cost.

What I'd really like to see is us take adv of the low payroll now and FRONT load a Cespedes deal. Pay him 30 million next year if we can limit our exposure later in the deal.
 
I still say they'll go big for a starter. They have a couple of guys right now that people wanna come out and watch. Attendance is way down. They need some selling power and mid to back end rotation guys won't help that. They need something to draw in fans.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Olivera is going to be very cheap going forward. Avg cost is 7 million a year. In today's market if he's a 1 WAR or better player he's a bargain right? I'm trying to warm up to the trade. Last night I was thinking that maybe Olivera could be what we thought we were getting in Uggla, but for a lot less money. If his arm holds up and he's ok I think Simba can make up for a lot at 3B. Also wouldn't mind moving him to 2B if we could find a way get a 3B better than Peterson.

Guys we have signed long term are mostly on team friendly deals. FF, Olivera, Simba, Tehran (even if he's not the stud we thought). Only bad ones are Markakis and CJ. I think we're out of the dead money unless we add CJ to that pile.

Now that we've cleared out some room on the 40 man and the 25 man, why not keep CJ? He can hit lefties and we have to pay him anyway.

I think we'll need to lock up Miller this offseason. I think we'll need a FA starter...not sure if we'll go Price level but maybe we'll get a Fister. I think we'll need a bat, but Cespedes is the only one I want and I may not want him depending on the cost.

What I'd really like to see is us take adv of the low payroll now and FRONT load a Cespedes deal. Pay him 30 million next year if we can limit our exposure later in the deal.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone can argue that Olivera at 5/32 is good value. It's just the price we had to pay to get good value.
 
nsacpi said:
One more speculative implication is that we might be more likely to hold on to CJ given questions about Olivera's ability to play 160 games. Alternatively, we might sign someone like KJ and let CJ go. We can rule out someone like Uribe who is more starter quality. Unless we decide Olivera should be in left.
Click to expand...

I'd still like to do a CJ for Infante deal. KC is going to need to replenish their minor league arms.
 
gilesfan said:
I don't think anyone can argue that Olivera at 5/32 is good value. It's just the price we had to pay to get good value.
Click to expand...

Right. I understand that if he just provides 1 WAR then we're not overpaying him and relative to the payroll, we're fine. It's just that I don't like trading Wood and Peraza for a 1 WAR player, no matter what his cost is.
 
I think it is a clear signal that they are going hard after Price.

Since Wood was the only current LH in the rotation and ManBan is questionable about health and there are no near LH starters available, it looks clear that they will go after SOME LH starter. And, given the cash available, the dearth of bats, and the need for another proven big time arm, Price looks like the chief target.
 
If we have the money, I see no reason not to bring back Minor at this point. The likelihood of Wisler, ManBan, Folty, and Perez all being above average starters is slim. Even if we sign someone like Price, I would still bring back Minor.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I think it is a clear signal that they are going hard after Price.

Since Wood was the only current LH in the rotation and ManBan is questionable about health and there are no near LH starters available, it looks clear that they will go after SOME LH starter. And, given the cash available, the dearth of bats, and the need for another proven big time arm, Price looks like the chief target.
Click to expand...

I would be shocked if the Braves go after any of the aces on the market. I think Zimmerman or Kazmir is the absolute top of what we'll go after, and I think you'll see us in the mix for the Samardzija-Anderson-Morrow group and then try to add somebody like Fister or Billingsley cheap.
 
gilesfan said:
I don't think anyone can argue that Olivera at 5/32 is good value. It's just the price we had to pay to get good value.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. Like I said I'm trying to live in a world where this trade happened.

If Olivera is a steal at this price and we back it up by landing more talent around around him, then we start to get somewhere. I don't have to like the trade.

Let's just say Wood is a 4 war player for the next 4 years. Olivera is what? Can the Braves make up for that lost 16 WAR by using that money to sign a big FA or two that could get us closer to 20 WAR over 4?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top