Implications of the Trade

Given the fact Price isnt attached to a draft pick, makes him even more expensive. Would be surprised if he doesnt get around what Scherzer got. Certainly see the Braves going after a vet FA SP, just not sure it's a guy like Price although he'd fit in perfectly at the top of the rotation, everything you want in an ace.

Personally i'd rather go after a Kazmir/Latos/Iwakuma/Fister type while having some money for a bat, although this FA market is pretty weak hitting wise after the top guys.

Not many young FA hitters other than Heyward and JUpton.

Parra would be a nice get, having a really good year and can play good defense.
 
smootness said:
Scherzer was 30 when he signed the deal, same as Price. In fact, Price will be about a month younger than Scherzer was; that obviously doesn't matter, but I don't know where you got 28 from.

I also don't know why you don't see Price as good as Scherzer. As good as this year's Scherzer? No, not quite. As good as Scherzer at the time of his signing? Why not?

Even with this year, Scherzer's career ERA is now 3.43 and his career FIP is 3.28. Price's career ERA is 3.13 and his career FIP is 3.24. Price has thrown 200+ innings 4 times in his career, Scherzer has done it twice.

Price doesn't strike out quite as many as Scherzer, but he still strikes out plenty and walks fewer. Price's career K/BB is 3.64. Scherzer, after this ridiculous year of 9 still just passed Price at 3.66.

By every measure, they are very similar pitchers, and Price has actually done it for longer than Scherzer had. Arguing that Price has less value right now than Scherzer had last year is crazy.
Click to expand...

I miscalculated the years.

Using career numbers is a little misleading, imo, when talking about how they compare right now. Scherzer got paid based on his last 2 seasons. One of which was he won a CY Young.
 
Carp said:
I miscalculated the years.

Using career numbers is a little misleading, imo, when talking about how they compare right now. Scherzer got paid based on his last 2 seasons. One of which was he won a CY Young.
Click to expand...

Scherzer's last 2 years before his contract:

2013: 214.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 10.1 K/2.4 BB (4.29 K/BB)

2014: 220.1 IP, 3.15 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 1.175 WHIP, 10.3 K/2.6 BB (4.0 K/BB)

Price's last 2 years:

2014: 248.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.079 WHIP, 9.8 K/1.4 BB (7.13 K/BB)

2015: on pace for 235 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 8.5 K/1.8 BB (4.76 K/BB)

So similar ERA and WHIP; Scherzer gets the slight edge in FIP and K rate; Price gets the edge in innings, BB rate, and K/BB.

Those are very, very similar pitchers. If you go back further than 2 years, Price is clearly better.
 
Bowman said he thinks we'll have a budget around 110-120 mil, response to someone on twitter few days ago. Also thinks we make a run at Lucroy.

‏@mlbbowman have not heard a firm number, but I do expect it to be between 110-120M
 
Heyward said:
Bowman said he thinks we'll have a budget around 110-120 mil, response to someone on twitter few days ago. Also thinks we make a run at Lucroy.

‏@mlbbowman have not heard a firm number, but I do expect it to be between 110-120M
Click to expand...

I agree, I think it'll be around 120. That would give us over 50 million to spend, closer to 60 if we can find a way to get rid of CJ.

I want us to try to get Heyward. I think he'll go for something around 8 years, $200 million. That would be steep, but if we could get him for more like 8/$180, I'd jump all over it. If you can do that, you could probably go get Zimmerman or Kazmir and still have a little money left. I would then sign a 4/5 starter and try to trade Teheran in a package for another bat.
 
Heyward's had a very good year, but i wouldnt give him that much.

I'd actually love to get Cespedes, cheaper, right handed, and a power bat something we need.

But im not paying someone that much whose main trait is their defense.
 
smootness said:
I agree, I think it'll be around 120. That would give us over 50 million to spend, closer to 60 if we can find a way to get rid of CJ.

I want us to try to get Heyward. I think he'll go for something around 8 years, $200 million. That would be steep, but if we could get him for more like 8/$180, I'd jump all over it. If you can do that, you could probably go get Zimmerman or Kazmir and still have a little money left. I would then sign a 4/5 starter and try to trade Teheran in a package for another bat.
Click to expand...

No way Heyward gets 200. The breakout that hasn't come is the deal killer
 
Oklahomabrave said:
I didn't like him as a throw in, but I don't love Peraza. I'm not a fan of players with no discipline or power.
Click to expand...

He wasnt a throw in.

Tapate50 said:
No way Heyward gets 200. The breakout that hasn't come is the deal killer
Click to expand...

I could see something like 10 years 200 million. He hasnt hit his physical prime yet so a long term deal like that could be a bargain if he has a monster prime. Probably a better bet to get value in return through the whole deal than someone like Robinson Cano who will be 56 when the contract is over.
 
I don't think you're gonna see the Braves throw big money at a marquis starting pitcher. In an age where Tommy John has reached an epidemic level, a team like the Braves can't assume that risk. Especially with what we've seen from Shelby Miller this year. I think they'd rather see what his ceiling is. I think we're much more likely to see them go after a backend starter and a bat.
 
Heyward said:
Heyward's had a very good year, but i wouldnt give him that much.

I'd actually love to get Cespedes, cheaper, right handed, and a power bat something we need.

But im not paying someone that much whose main trait is their defense.
Click to expand...

Cespedes is still going to be expensive, and he's far more likely to end up being way overpaid by the time his deal is up as well.

Heyward is pretty much good for 4-6 WAR per year, he still has room to grow offensively, and he'll be 26. I would give him that deal in a heartbeat, assuming we can afford it.
 
chopdrew said:
I don't think you're gonna see the Braves throw big money at a marquis starting pitcher. In an age where Tommy John has reached an epidemic level, a team like the Braves can't assume that risk. Especially with what we've seen from Shelby Miller this year. I think they'd rather see what his ceiling is. I think we're much more likely to see them go after a backend starter and a bat.
Click to expand...

But there just aren't many available good bats. Cespedes/Heywood/Upton are the best 3 and beyond that would be re-signing the likes of Uribe, KJ, and AJ.
 
I think Heyward will get an AAV of at least 25M.

He's had a strong offensive season since the poor April. His slash lines by month:

April .217/.261/.349

May .284/.340/.443

June .326/.365/.517

July .312/.387/.419
 
The other thing that will favor Heyward is hitting free agency after his age 25 season. I can't remember someone hitting free agency at a younger age. Griffey Junior? ARod?

I think Heyward projects to produce a higher WAR over the next 8 years than any of the other free agents. He's a better all around player than Cespedes and Upton. Five years younger than Price. Six years younger than Greinke. And of course doesn't carry the health risks that pitchers do. Except for the broken jaw and operation to remove his appendix he's been quite durable. And he obviously takes great care of his body and hasn't allowed his waistline to expand, unlike some of the other top free agents. I don't like bringing up intangibles like work ethic, grit, leadership and character, but feel safe in saying that Heyward more than holds his own in those departments. The only department he's been subpar in so far is clutchness, and the Cardinals will give him their secret sauce for that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top