Implications of the Trade

[thewupk]

Thats because of defense, not offense champ.

4-5 years ago he gets 13-15 mil, obviously money has changed.

He'll certainly be well paid by someone, does not mean he's worth it.

Defense is production bro. I don't see how you can say if teams are willing to give him that then he doesn't deserve it. It's called market value for a reason.

 

[thethe]

I dunno. Cespedes just seems like a big risk. If you could nail him down to a 3-4 year deal and possibly over pay in dollars per year then I wouldn't be against it. I just don't see him wanting that unless his market completely dries up which is unlikely.

Cespedes just like Heyward is going to cash in big time in the offseason.

The real interesting story is Justin Upton. I have no clue whats going to happen with him.

 

[Heyward]

Then what if he pulls a year like 2013 where he is more like Gattis? Sure he has that raw power but with his low walk rate and high (although not horrible) K rate he can be prone to some pretty down years. He will also be 30 to start the season. You have to figure Cespedes is going to want that long term deal as it will be his only real shot at one. And with that likely comes a horrible back end of the contract. That's the risk you get when signing 30+ year olds to long deals.

And if Heyward has years at 13-14, is he worth nearly 30 mil a year, NOPE.

 

[thewupk]

So Markakis is worth 4/44, good to know.

And BJ Upton is worth 15 mil a year because the market says he is.

Based on previous years, yes, Markakis is worth 11 million a year. Not many people had an issue with that. They had an issue with giving him 4 years with the way the team was going.

And Upton was worth 15 million a year based on previous years. Clearly he cratered and became absolute crap. Had he stayed a high 3 WAR player then he would have earned his contract.

 

[Heyward]

Defense is production bro. I don't see how you can say if teams are willing to give him that then he doesn't deserve it. It's called market value for a reason.

So is BJ Upton worth 15 mil a year, is Markakis worth 11 mil a year, is Verlander worth 25 mil a year, is Howard worth 25 mil a year, thats what the market said, right?

 

[thewupk]

And if Heyward has years at 13-14, is he worth nearly 30 mil a year, NOPE.

25 million isn't nearly 30 million.

And what's wrong with his 2013 and 2014 seasons? He was on pace for over 6 WAR in 2013 before he got hurt and clearly he was a 5 WAR player last season. Nobody wants that.

 

[Heyward]

I dunno. Cespedes just seems like a big risk. If you could nail him down to a 3-4 year deal and possibly over pay in dollars per year then I wouldn't be against it. I just don't see him wanting that unless his market completely dries up which is unlikely.

I agree, but we clearly need a power bat.

Assuming we arent in on Jason or Justin, they'll need to go after Cespedes or trade for one.

I'd still love to get Braun even though some/alot are against it.

The years are certainly the big concern with Cespedes upcoming deal though.

 

[thewupk]

So is BJ Upton worth 15 mil a year, is Markakis worth 11 mil a year, is Verlander worth 25 mil a year, is Howard worth 25 mil a year, thats what the market said, right?

Verlander and Howard never hit the market. So we don't know what they would of got.

 

[thewupk]

Cespedes just like Heyward is going to cash in big time in the offseason.

The real interesting story is Justin Upton. I have no clue whats going to happen with him.

He is worth more to an AL team that can hide him at DH. I honestly see him ending up around 20 million per year.

 

[Heyward]

25 million isn't nearly 30 million.

And what's wrong with his 2013 and 2014 seasons? He was on pace for over 6 WAR in 2013 before he got hurt and clearly he was a 5 WAR player last season. Nobody wants that.

Heyward had a better WAR than Puig, Goldy, Rizzo, Gomez, Tulo along with many others last year. He was not better than them last year.

We've been over this, his defense clearly over-inflates his WAR-value.

LaGares had the 7th highest WAR last year in the NL, it's an over-inflated stat due to defense.

Simmons had the 4th highest WAR in 2013. Mostly because of defense derp derp.

 

[thewupk]

Heyward had a better WAR than Puig, Goldy, Rizzo, Gomez, Tulo along with many others last year.

We've been over this, his defense clearly over-inflates his WAR-value.

LaGares had the 7th highest WAR last year in the NL, it's an over-inflated stat due to defense.

Defense does matter man. I'm sorry you can't understand that. A run saved is equal to a run created.

 

[Heyward]

Defense does matter man. I'm sorry you can't understand that. A run saved is equal to a run created.

Where'd i say it doesnt matter?

This isnt worth debating, you like WAR because it pumps up Heyward's value, pretty simple.

 

[thewupk]

Where'd i say it doesnt matter?

This isnt worth debating, you like WAR because it pumps up Heyward's value, pretty simple.

Yeah I only like WAR because it says Heyward is a good player.

And clearly you are understating the value of defense. Good defense shouldn't make players better and bad defense shouldn't make players worse.

 

[Heyward]

Yeah I only like WAR because it says Heyward is a good player.

And clearly you are understating the value of defense. Good defense shouldn't make players better and bad defense shouldn't make players worse.

Heyward is a very good player, would be up there in the Trout/Harper/Stanton range if his offense was better and he got his power stroke back.

But defense shouldnt over-inflate players value/worth and market value as well.

 

[thewupk]

Heyward is a very good player, would be up there in the Trout/Harper/Stanton range if his offense was better and he got his power stroke back.

But defense shouldnt over-inflate players value/worth and market value as well.

Heyward is a good hitter with elite defense. I would say those players are pretty damn valuable.

 

[Heyward]

Heyward is a good hitter with elite defense. I would say those players are pretty damn valuable.

Sure, but what happens if his defense declines in 2-4 years, is he still worth 25-28 a year?

 

[thewupk]

Sure, but what happens if his defense declines in 2-4 years, is he still worth 25-28 a year?

He won't be as valuable? What happens when Cespedes or any 30+ year old declines in the 2nd half of their contract? Every long contract you sign has risks that said player won't be the same 3-4 years later. This is what Heyward has on his side. He's 26 and will have more years in his prime then most free agents. That is worth money as well.

 

[nsacpi]

Sure, but what happens if his defense declines in 2-4 years, is he still worth 25-28 a year?

If his defense declines it won't matter that much since the stats overstate the importance of defense.

 

[Heyward]

He won't be as valuable? What happens when Cespedes or any 30+ year old declines in the 2nd half of their contract? Every long contract you sign has risks that said player won't be the same 3-4 years later. This is what Heyward has on his side. He's 26 and will have more years in his prime then most free agents. That is worth money as well.

Fair point, i think he'll try to have an opt out clause in his deal so he can cash out one more time.

Ramadon i think said thats what he wanted.

 

[Heyward]

He won't be as valuable? What happens when Cespedes or any 30+ year old declines in the 2nd half of their contract? Every long contract you sign has risks that said player won't be the same 3-4 years later. This is what Heyward has on his side. He's 26 and will have more years in his prime then most free agents. That is worth money as well.

I was looking at the other FA's the other day, pretty much every FA minus Jason, Justin and a couple SP's are in their 20's.

Interesting market.