Around Baseball 2015 Edition

[Horsehide Harry]

Gomes is probably as good as gone with Swisher on the team.

Frasor doesnt have an option.

Cle is sending 15 mil over so Bourn, Swisher wont cost 29 mil combined.

But yes, do think we have a little more to spend than some of the nancies say.

I was trying to give a worst case scenario for the nancies.

But, we really don't know exactly until it happens and won't really know precisely when it does. For instance, suppose that the Braves already know that they are not going to bring Swisher back (unlikely but possible). They may choose to write off his expense against this year (the Braves already are significantly under budget for this year) and use the cash from Cleveland to make Bourn a zero cost next year.

 

[auyushu]

I was trying to give a worst case scenario for the nancies.

All you did was repeat what nsacpi and I had already said (along with shortchanging a few of the salary amounts by 300-500 grand or so here or there, and leaving out Quentin's buyout). If we keep everyone and resign AJ (seriously doubt he comes back for the same pay, imagine it'll be more like 3-3.5 mil or so), we'll likely have between 15-25 mil to spend (depending on how much we actually wind up getting from Cleveland and how much Miller's first year of arb winds up being).

If we wind up trading Maybin we'll have closer to 30 mil, and if we get a bump to 120 mil then it'll be 40 mil. We'll see how that part shakes out.

But as it stands right now we have 15-25 to spend, which could get us one decent piece or a couple bullpen arms/bench bats and a starting catcher. Neither of which would make a us a playoff team next year, which is what the original discussion Smoot and I brought versus thethe's comment was about.

Sure, if we trade Maybin, sign one of Price/Grienke/Kazmir, and trade for a LF bat then we could be a borderline playoff team next year, but that's unlikely to happen unless we are getting bumped into the 120 mil range starting next year. But I would definitely like to see both situations happen.

 

[Carp]

We were a borderline playoff contender before Fredito got injured the first time and we shipped out Wood, KJ, Uribe, JJ, and Avilan. I don't think it would take all that much to make this team competitive.

 

[auyushu]

We were a borderline playoff contender before Fredito got injured the first time

I see, you are one of those that live in the imaginary world where we would be competing for a playoff spot if Freddie didn't get injured. I won't try and argue anything with ya then.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I see, you are one of those that live in the imaginary world where we would be competing for a playoff spot if Freddie didn't get injured. I won't try and argue anything with ya then.

Competing for a playoff spot doesnt mean you actually win a spot. If we lost out on the last playoff spot by 4-5 games thats still competing because we would be in it till the last week of the season.

 

[auyushu]

Competing for a playoff spot doesnt mean you actually win a spot. If we lost out on the last playoff spot by 4-5 games thats still competing because we would be in it till the last week of the season.

Then I guess we are still competing for a playoff spot this year then! Plenty of games left to make up that deficit.

If you have a losing record you aren't competing for anything, and we would wind up with a losing record this year regardless of trades or injuries. The only reason we were even close to .500 in the first half was due to our weak first half schedule. Hell, if it wasn't for our record against the Marlins this year we'd have close to the worst record in baseball.

 

[Carp]

I see, you are one of those that live in the imaginary world where we would be competing for a playoff spot if Freddie didn't get injured. I won't try and argue anything with ya then.

We were at 42-42 exactly one month ago from Friday. Less than like 5 games back of the 2nd wild card. I'm not sure what isn't competitive about that. Again I said borderline playoff contender. And that was back before we our BP started getting better (which at the time had been our biggest weakness at that point in the year).

I have zero doubt in my mind we could have finished around .500 or possibly a little better with some luck. Of course I'm glad we didn't do that, because I want a higher draft pick and the odds of making the second wild card would not have been great.

 

[bravesnumberone]

Bleh, with the damn higher draft pick. If we draft smart, and if our scouts are as good as everyone here preaches, we'll get a good player.

I want this team winning as many games as they can these last two months. If they finished at or a little above .500, that shows the young guys that with some improvements, the team can be even better, and young players with confidence can take you a long way.

A strong finish gives the team a positive vibe going into the offseason and GUESS WHAT!?!?!? Makes it potentially more attractive to free agent aces.

You guys want a top 5 pick? Go root for an NBA team like the Sixers.

 

[Carp]

Free agents go where the money is. So that argument holds little water.

I won't actively root for the team to lose, but it's honestly better long term to have a higher pick if you can't make the playoffs.

 

[bravesnumberone]

I'm saying if we're offering the same money, which people here seem to think, coming off an 82-80 season with young talent and a mix of veterans that was injured, blah, blah, blah, just needs a little push to be a playoff team and you're the guy to help with that is better than being 72-90.

If we really are bad enough, the final 51 games will show it, and we'll get that top 5 pick.

 

[auyushu]

We were at 42-42 exactly one month ago from Friday. Less than like 5 games back of the 2nd wild card. I'm not sure what isn't competitive about that. Again I said borderline playoff contender. And that was back before we our BP started getting better (which at the time had been our biggest weakness at that point in the year).

I have zero doubt in my mind we could have finished around .500 or possibly a little better with some luck. Of course I'm glad we didn't do that, because I want a higher draft pick and the odds of making the second wild card would not have been great.

Our .500 record at that point was entirely due to going 12-4 against the Marlins and Brewers. We were .500 or worse versus every other team we played outside of the Phils (5-4). And even then our success was due mainly to overly lucky hitting with RISP. So basically that record was a mirage due to a weak schedule in the first half and unsustainable hitting with RISP. Once we started playing solid teams at the beginning of the second half we started to lose, with or without Freddie, and before we made the trades (outside of that Dodgers series where we got lucky and missed Grienke and Kershaw).

And even if we were to be .500, that would not be competing. The second wild card team right now is the Cubs, who are 13 games above .500.

 

[auyushu]

I'm saying if we're offering the same money, which people here seem to think, coming off an 82-80 season with young talent and a mix of veterans that was injured, blah, blah, blah, just needs a little push to be a playoff team and you're the guy to help with that is better than being 72-90.

If we really are bad enough, the final 51 games will show it, and we'll get that top 5 pick.

Lester signed with the Cubs coming off a 73-89 season. Players really don't care all that much about record.

 

[bravesnumberone]

Lester signed with the Cubs coming off a 73-89 season. Players really don't care all that much about record.

OK one player....

 

[auyushu]

OK one player....

Players have pretty consistently gone with the team that offers them the most money recently, not sure why that's hard to comprehend. Cano to the Mariners after they went 71-91, Hanley Ramirez to the Red Sox after they went 71-91, James Shields to the Padres after they went 77-85, I could go on but don't care that much. Players don't give a rip about the record, mostly just money (with some actually caring about location and a few here or there caring about record, but that's mostly at the end of their career)

 

[bravesnumberone]

Players have pretty consistently gone with the team that offers them the most money recently, not sure why that's hard to comprehend. Cano to the Mariners after they went 71-91, Hanley Ramirez to the Red Sox after they went 71-91, James Shields to the Padres after they went 77-85, I could go on but don't care that much. Players don't give a rip about the record, mostly just money (with some actually caring about location and a few here or there caring about record, but that's mostly at the end of their career)

My point was if the money is the same, they're going to choose the team trying to win.

 

[auyushu]

My point was if the money is the same, they're going to choose the team trying to win.

Anyone trying to sign a top FA is trying to win. They aren't going to be looking at records to decide who they are signing with. Whether we go 70-92 or 82-80 with the scrub batting lineup we are putting out the rest of the year it will not matter. The FA is going to look at the team we have to put on the field going forward. Record has had zero effect on where FA have gone for the most part, players have consistently gone from teams with better records to ones with worse with regularity.

 

[mqt]

My point was if the money is the same, they're going to choose the team trying to win.

I don't really agree. I think that players largely go to teams with winning records because those are the teams like the Yankees with piles of money to throw around, not specifically because of their previous record.

 

[VirginiaBrave]

Then I guess we are still competing for a playoff spot this year then! Plenty of games left to make up that deficit.

If you have a losing record you aren't competing for anything, and we would wind up with a losing record this year regardless of trades or injuries. The only reason we were even close to .500 in the first half was due to our weak first half schedule. Hell, if it wasn't for our record against the Marlins this year we'd have close to the worst record in baseball.

So you are saying if we were 3 games out, as long as the record was under .500 we wouldn't be competing? Somebody better take that 2006 WS trophy from the Cards and give it to whoever had the best record then

 

[auyushu]

So you are saying if we were 3 games out, as long as the record was under .500 we wouldn't be competing? Somebody better take that 2006 WS trophy from the Cards and give it to whoever had the best record then

Given that no team in the history of baseball has won a division without having a winning record, yes I would say you aren't realistically competing for a playoff spot if you have a losing record. Now there have been times like you mention in 2006 with the Cards and the year before with the Padres where people have won divisions with 82-83 wins, but that's extremely rare.

Typically you are going to need at least 86 wins for the second wild card, and with teams the Cards, Pirates, Dodgers, Giants, and Cubs have for the next few years we are going to need much more than that (though luckily the division should be easier to compete in).

But no, if we have a losing record we aren't competing for squat, no matter how many games back we wind up being.

 

[Carp]

Our .500 record at that point was entirely due to going 12-4 against the Marlins and Brewers. We were .500 or worse versus every other team we played outside of the Phils (5-4). And even then our success was due mainly to overly lucky hitting with RISP. So basically that record was a mirage due to a weak schedule in the first half and unsustainable hitting with RISP. Once we started playing solid teams at the beginning of the second half we started to lose, with or without Freddie, and before we made the trades (outside of that Dodgers series where we got lucky and missed Grienke and Kershaw).

And even if we were to be .500, that would not be competing. The second wild card team right now is the Cubs, who are 13 games above .500.

Thats silly. You can't take away wins and say "oh this their true performance."

Take away the Nationals record vs the Braves and Phils, and the Nats are among the worst teams in baseball. Same with the Mets, take away their record vs MIA and Philly and they are among the worst teams in baseball. I could go on and on, but you get the point.

And yes being around .500 is competing. If we were .500 right now we'd be about 3 games back of the Mets.