newest SI cover....

thewupk said:
How do you know corner outfielders don't have enough chances to impact a game with the glove? Is that what you were always told? Just like RBI is a great offense state. Or that fielding % is what defense is all about? Either way defensive stats (that are apart of WAR) uses actual plays and compares them to what other players are doing. So yeah I would say it has signifigant value. It's not like a static stat like Homeruns for example which by itself you have no context on good they are.

And yes a players salary is pretty consistant with a players WAR. That's been well documented for quite some time.
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It is my sacred belief, based on experience as a player, coach and fan, that WAR is often inconsistent with a player's actual value on the defensive side of the ball. I understand the principle of WAR and laud the attempt. I just know in my bones that it's off.

If I take 10 RFers and hypothetically watch them for a weeks worth of games with each of them getting the same chances, I know that there are differences. Jason Heyward will get to a ball or two that Nick Markakis (who looks average to me) won't. He'll get to a ball or two quickly that stops a player from advancing a base which will mean he's - I don't know, .31 more likely to be stranded. And once or twice a month he'll shoot somebody at third that Nick won't. So he has more value defensively.

But those opportunities to distinguish oneself from others are few and far between. So to me, defense makes up maybe a quarter of the value of a RF. (And ,yes, I understand a run saved is a run produced. I believe there are less of them than seems to show on the WAR scale.) I want offense. And there, Nick and Jason are a push.
 
thewupk said:
Yeah I read that comment about the Braves and Wren being behind the curve on stats. It's the first I've heard about that and actually read articles about the opposite while Wren was still here. So who knows what to believe. I feel there is a lot of disinformation regarding Wren about why he was dismissed. I think the only real thing that matters is that Wren wanted to give it one more shot and JS wanted to rebuild. And things went from there.
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That makes a lot of sense.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
It is my sacred belief, based on experience as a player, coach and fan, that WAR is often inconsistent with a player's actual value on the defensive side of the ball. I understand the principle of WAR and laud the attempt. I just know in my bones that it's off.

If I take 10 RFers and hypothetically watch them for a weeks worth of games with each of them getting the same chances, I know that there are differences. Jason Heyward will get to a ball or two that Nick Markakis (who looks average to me) won't. He'll get to a ball or two quickly that stops a player from advancing a base which will mean he's - I don't know, .31 more likely to be stranded. And once or twice a month he'll shoot somebody at third that Nick won't. So he has more value defensively.

But those opportunities to distinguish oneself from others are few and far between. So to me, defense makes up maybe a quarter of the value of a RF. (And ,yes, I understand a run saved is a run produced. I believe there are less of them than seems to show on the WAR scale.) I want offense. And there, Nick and Jason are a push.
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So Heyward is 2-3 runs better defensively per month?

On what planet are these two a push offensively?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
It is my sacred belief, based on experience as a player, coach and fan, that WAR is often inconsistent with a player's actual value on the defensive side of the ball. I understand the principle of WAR and laud the attempt. I just know in my bones that it's off.

If I take 10 RFers and hypothetically watch them for a weeks worth of games with each of them getting the same chances, I know that there are differences. Jason Heyward will get to a ball or two that Nick Markakis (who looks average to me) won't. He'll get to a ball or two quickly that stops a player from advancing a base which will mean he's - I don't know, .31 more likely to be stranded. And once or twice a month he'll shoot somebody at third that Nick won't. So he has more value defensively.

But those opportunities to distinguish oneself from others are few and far between. So to me, defense makes up maybe a quarter of the value of a RF. (And ,yes, I understand a run saved is a run produced. I believe there are less of them than seems to show on the WAR scale.) I want offense. And there, Nick and Jason are a push.
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I get that. In terms of runs being saved and runs being produced defense is about a 1/3rd the value of offense. I guess that's a little high for you? I would argue that Jason and Nick are a push offensviely. Maybe last year which was Heyward's worst year outside of his Sophmore year. But to me Heyward is around a WRC+ 120 hitter. Nick is likely 105 range which is where he is at right now. And the differencen between a 120 hitter and a 105 hitter over a full season is 13 runs above replacement. Which is good for 1.4 in WAR.

With their current stats Heyward is about 1 WAR ahead of Nick offensively.
 
thewupk said:
I get that. In terms of runs being saved and runs being produced defense is about a 1/3rd the value of offense. I guess that's a little high for you? I would argue that Jason and Nick are a push offensviely. Maybe last year which was Heyward's worst year outside of his Sophmore year. But to me Heyward is around a WRC+ 120 hitter. Nick is likely 105 range which is where he is at right now. And the differencen between a 120 hitter and a 105 hitter over a full season is 13 runs above replacement. Which is good for 1.4 in WAR.

With their current stats Heyward is about 1 WAR ahead of Nick offensively.
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I was thinking about their career .780s and Nick just now starting to get his power stroke back after the neck surgery. But I'll accept your friendly amendment that Jason is likely a bit better offensively, too - and runs like a deer, as well as being a very smart base runner.

To the core question, I suppose that's so - but I think it's more that.... I think the standard deviation (if I'm thinking about each WAR being a std dev from a replacement player) on defense is too short for my liking. I believe Jason is the best defensive RF in baseball. That should be worth a couple WAR over a Markakis, and several folks have done some math around what that means in dollars, both absolute and at free agency time. But when I see "Markakis is a 1.5 WAR player and Heyward is a 6 WAR player" I'm like, come on, really?

It doesn't compute for me, you know? He's a better player and a far better defender and baserunner, but I can't wrap my head around his value being 4x greater.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I was thinking about their career .780s and Nick just now starting to get his power stroke back after the neck surgery. But I'll accept your friendly amendment that Jason is likely a bit better offensively, too - and runs like a deer, as well as being a very smart base runner.

To the core question, I suppose that's so - but I think it's more that.... I think the standard deviation (if I'm thinking about each WAR being a std dev from a replacement player) on defense is too short for my liking. I believe Jason is the best defensive RF in baseball. That should be worth a couple WAR over a Markakis, and several folks have done some math around what that means in dollars, both absolute and at free agency time. But when I see "Markakis is a 1.5 WAR player and Heyward is a 6 WAR player" I'm like, come on, really?

It doesn't compute for me, you know? He's a better player and a far better defender and baserunner, but I can't wrap my head around his value being 4x greater.
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I don't think it's that far off if you look at it from an area by area basis. If you are referring to Jason as a 6 WAR player I'm guessing it's his 2012 season as that's the last (and only) time he's been at 6 WAR. Using that season as a base line Heyward was worth 9 baserunning runs that season. Which is steals and taking extra bases, etc on hits. Markakis has been been -2 for awhile now. Which shouldn't surprise anybody. Heyward is a great base runner entering his prime while Nick is slow and exiting his.

So Heyward has a 11ish run advantage there which is worth for a little over 1 win.

As we already established given Heyward was at a 120 WRC+ that season and Markakis usually in the 105 range that gives Heyward a 2.5 WAR advantage combining his hitting and base running.

And that brings us to defense. On average Jason has been around 20 runs or better than Nick in a given season. That's 3.3 runs per month between an elite right fielder and a below average one. I don't find that too impossible to believe. And 20 runs equates to 2 WAR which would give Jason that 4.5 advantage. So 6 WAR to 1.5.

The thing with Jason is that he does everything well. And that all has value and adds up. Most players generally have something that brings them down. Great hitters usually aren't good defenders. Good defenders that can run generally are average hitters. There just aren't many players that are consistantly good or better at those 3 facets of the game. And I feel that they can sometimes be undervalued when just viewing them on a daily basis.
 
Enscheff said:
Wait...just so I'm clear...

You are comparing WAR to pitcher wins?
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No, I don't believe that's what he was doing.

Someone made a facetious comment about how we traded Greek God Jason Heyward for a "5-9 pitcher."

So, I think he was saying that if you're going to use WAR to say Heyward is great, you can't use Shelby's "poor" record as a knock against him because the two are intellectually incompatible.

At least, that's what I got out of it.
 
thewupk said:
Right. So why is one half of a season more important than the entire season? Or the last few seasons of a players resume? When a player has a track record of performing at a certain level they are giving the benefit of the doubt if they struggle for a month or two.

However the opposite doesn't seem to be true. When players like Maybin or Makakis come over and start out really strong no weight is given to their previous performances and those suggesting to take caution as the chanes of them reverting back to their prior selves are high get labeled as haters.

Which was my original point. Statheads look at small sample sizes and ignore them most of the time. Where others look at them and just think that's just the way it is now. The what have you done for me latleys. There are a lot of them on this board.
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Dinner's on SAV when Kelly and Jason reach Cooperstown!
 
yeezus said:
No, I don't believe that's what he was doing.

Someone made a facetious comment about how we traded Greek God Jason Heyward for a "5-9 pitcher."

So, I think he was saying that if you're going to use WAR to say Heyward is great, you can't use Shelby's "poor" record as a knock against him because the two are intellectually incompatible.

At least, that's what I got out of it.
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Who was using Shelby's record as any indication on how he's pitched?
 
CyYoung31 said:
Who was using Shelby's record as any indication on how he's pitched?
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Oh my lord, you guys gotta chill. He was responding to the below quote:

bravesnumberone said:
Ouch. At least we have the best 5-9 pitcher in baseball.
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Which is basically saying, "yeah we traded that amazing stud Heyward for a 5-9 pitcher." I don't think once did he even HINT that he thought a pitcher's record is equally as telling as WAR, in fact I believe it was quite the opposite. Bringing up the 5-9 record was clearly an attempt at a knock on our return for The Best Player of All Time. I don't see, at all, where pitcher's wins were compared to WAR. the original comment was glossed over by some of you because it was defending our Lord and Savior.
 
yeezus said:
Oh my lord, you guys gotta chill. He was responding to the below quote:

Which is basically saying, "yeah we traded that amazing stud Heyward for a 5-9 pitcher." I don't think once did he even HINT that he thought a pitcher's record is equally as telling as WAR, in fact I believe it was quite the opposite. Bringing up the 5-9 record was clearly an attempt at a knock on our return for The Best Player of All Time. I don't see, at all, where pitcher's wins were compared to WAR. the original comment was glossed over by some of you because it was defending our Lord and Savior.
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Chill? For asking a question? I think you're the one who needs to chill. Besides, it was a joke.
 
Which player would you rather have?

Pitcher A: 4.2 WAR

Position Player B: 3.3 WAR

Pitcher A is under team control at a reasonable salary for 3 more years. Player B is gonna cost you megabucks and multiple years and a 1st round draft pick.

You guys will never guess the 2 players.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Chill? For asking a question? I think you're the one who needs to chill. Besides, it was a joke.
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Naw fam, you guys misunderstood what was said and needed it explained and were ready to pounce like you caught your girl texting another dude.

carry on, my Heyward son.
 
weso1 said:
Which player would you rather have?

Pitcher A: 4.2 WAR

Position Player B: 3.3 WAR

Pitcher A is under team control at a reasonable salary for 3 more years. Player B is gonna cost you megabucks and multiple years and a 1st round draft pick.

You guys will never guess the 2 players.
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Shelby has allowed 8 homers this year. That's pretty damn good.
Really hard to argue we should've kept Heyward for one year over Shelby for four. But, meh.
 
weso1 said:
Which player would you rather have?

Pitcher A: 4.2 WAR

Position Player B: 3.3 WAR

Pitcher A is under team control at a reasonable salary for 3 more years. Player B is gonna cost you megabucks and multiple years and a 1st round draft pick.

You guys will never guess the 2 players.
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That's tough
 
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