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weso1 said:
I'm not sure why you asking me this question? Clearly I think WAR is a better indicator, but I question the validity of a certain organization's calculation of WAR when the difference in ERA is as extreme as it is.

The difference between b-ref WAR and fangraphs WAR is that B-ref gives a more accurate indication of how the pitcher has actually performed that season. While fangraph's WAR is more of a predictor on future performance. So fangraphs is more speculative rather than an accurate portrayal of his actual performance.
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Not really unless you believe giving the pitcher credit for things he cannot control.
 
thewupk said:
Sure. But then you are giving pitchers credit for low BABIP's when that's likely just noise and will regress the following year. Should pitchers be penalized or given credit for what could essentially come down as luck?
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I don't know that it's luck. That's speculative. Miller's BABIP really isn't any lower than it usually is. His HR's are way down, but his GB/out is way up. I don't know what his strategy is? It could be luck, but it might not be.

I would take Fangraph's take on his WAR performance this season more seriously if it didn't penalize him so harshly based on what they believe is luck. Just too much speculation for me. Maybe if it was more like .5 WAR lower I would think, ok this could be more accurate. But to say that he's been on the same level as Cole Hamels this season just seems a bit too much for me.

You think Cole Hamels and Shelby Miller should have the same WAR right now? Honestly?
 
gilesfan said:
Not really unless you believe giving the pitcher credit for things he cannot control.
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What makes you think Miller isn't getting hitters to hit the ball where he wants them to, or keeping them off balance so that their contact is weaker? His BABIP is pretty similar to his past seasons. Right around the average.

I just think fangraphs uses too much speculation. B-ref uses some speculation. Maybe not enough, but there is some speculation there. It's not like there are no controls in their statistical analysis to counter luck.
 
weso1 said:
I don't know that it's luck. That's speculative. Miller's BABIP really isn't any lower than it usually is. His HR's are way down, but his GB/out is way up. I don't know what his strategy is? It could be luck, but it might not be.

I would take Fangraph's take on his WAR performance this season more seriously if it didn't penalize him so harshly based on what they believe is luck. Just too much speculation for me. Maybe if it was more like .5 WAR lower I would think, ok this could be more accurate. But to say that he's been on the same level as Cole Hamels this season just seems a bit too much for me.

You think Cole Hamels and Shelby Miller should have the same WAR right now? Honestly?
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I undestand all of that. I do feel Miller has been lucky this year. That being said his BABIP right now is in line with his career average. Still he's only had 522 innings in his MLB career. I don't necessarily think that will continue but hey he could be one of those pitchers that can outpitch his FIP.
 
weso1 said:
What makes you think Miller isn't getting hitters to hit the ball where he wants them to, or keeping them off balance so that their contact is weaker? His BABIP is pretty similar to his past seasons. Right around the average.

I just think fangraphs uses too much speculation. B-ref uses some speculation. Maybe not enough, but there is some speculation there. It's not like there are no controls in their statistical analysis to counter luck.
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Because it's been proven wrong.
 
gilesfan said:
Because it's been proven wrong.
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That certainly hasn't been proven wrong. Unless you are speaking in general, but there are always exceptions. Which is why maybe fangraphs idea of a WAR balanced more toward the speculative is not as accurate as bref's which is balanced less toward the speculative.

My feeling is that Miller maybe isn't a top ten pitcher as Bref suggests, but he's been much better than fangraph suggests. I think 3.5ish WAR is a pretty fair compromise between the two. Wouldn't you agree?
 
fangraphs has Miller as the 22nd best pitcher in baseball this year in terms of WAR. I have no issue with that.
 
I just wish we hadn't traded him to STL. I don't see how keeping him at a crazy price would have helped us.
 
Even if we were willing to pay it was the right move to trade him. If they wanted to/could pay him they could do it in a few months.
 
I really hope we're smart enough to sign him this offseason. If he wouldn't give us a break this past offseason (not that we offered him anything) then why not pay for him now? He or Justin are must have players. Not much else out there either.
 
zitothebrave said:
I really hope we're smart enough to sign him this offseason. If he wouldn't give us a break this past offseason (not that we offered him anything) then why not pay for him now? He or Justin are must have players. Not much else out there either.
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They will make too much. Going to have to rely on retreads in the outfield the next few years.
 
yeezus said:
Oh my lord, you guys gotta chill. He was responding to the below quote:

Which is basically saying, "yeah we traded that amazing stud Heyward for a 5-9 pitcher." I don't think once did he even HINT that he thought a pitcher's record is equally as telling as WAR, in fact I believe it was quite the opposite. Bringing up the 5-9 record was clearly an attempt at a knock on our return for The Best Player of All Time. I don't see, at all, where pitcher's wins were compared to WAR. the original comment was glossed over by some of you because it was defending our Lord and Savior.
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No, it wasn't at all. Not a knock at all on Shelby. He pitched great. I'm more depressed that he's gotten no run support, we suck, and Heyward might win a WS with the Cardinals.
 
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