Just For A Point Of Reference
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
No one was picking Houston for the post-season either. Interestingly enough, the Yankees also were somewhat unloved at the start of the season.
In the NL, the Collapse of the Gnats is the main surprise relative to pre-season projections.
All this reinforces my view that if you have a chance to assemble a team that projects to win 80-85 games without going through extravagant contortions that mortgage your future, you do it and worry about next year when it arrives. Every year a couple teams that don't project to do much get sprinkled with a little pixie dust and have a wonderful season.
In the NL, the Collapse of the Gnats is the main surprise relative to pre-season projections.
All this reinforces my view that if you have a chance to assemble a team that projects to win 80-85 games without going through extravagant contortions that mortgage your future, you do it and worry about next year when it arrives. Every year a couple teams that don't project to do much get sprinkled with a little pixie dust and have a wonderful season.
Why did Freeman have to get injured and ruin our season!
Actually was just taking a shot (entirely in fun) at the more statistically-inclined of us, but I get that point as well. Just wondered if anyone would come up with a stat that would explain completely why a team that looked so bad on paper has the biggest lead over its Division.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It would have to be a defensive stat! I believe defense is the element that led KC to be underrated. Just because it is not precisely measured does not mean it is unimportant. In some cases, the defensive metrics might understate the value of a very good defensive player.
But dwar doesn't equal wins...
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
As per KC, in addition to Cain's elevation, Hosmer is having his best major league season and Morales has resurrected his career. And they can pick it in the field, but don't forget their pitching, especially their bullpen. There's been some regression from Ventura, but with the addition of Cueto, they have a solid rotation. Added to that, the back end of their bullpen still ranks among the best in the game and with the additions of Madson and Medlen, they can really shorten games.
And they've added Cueto and Zobrist, among others, that have been on fire. Plus they somehow got something out of Joe Blanton and Chris Young.
It's really amazing what the coaches over there are doing with retread pitchers. Anyone they stick in the bullpen turns to gold.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
As for the three principals, it always helps when you can throw mid-to-high 90s. They are constructed for a nice run in the playoffs, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Gordon coming back should be a plus and Zobrist gives them a ton of quality flexibility. Cueto, Volquez, and whomever should give them a decent post-season rotation and when combined with their bullpen, they stack up nicely. Only thing they seem to lack is an additional LHP out of the bullpen.
Using this as the next point of reference...
Player A (29 years old):
Prior To 2015 - .279/.326/.392/.718
2015 - .311/.364/.499/.863
Improvement - .032/.038/.107/.145
Player B (28 years old):
Prior To 2015 - .246/.309/.365/.674
2015 - .280/.341/.404/.745
Improvement - .034/.032/.039/.071
So Cain's "turning into a star", but Maybin might not even possibly be "turning the corner"???
Cain's improvement from his age 28 season to age 29 season...
.010/.025/.087/.082
The same level of projected improvement makes Maybin a .290/.366/.491/.827 player in 2016, right?
sturg33
I
I mean, even in your dumb example... Cain was much better BEFORE. And, he's improved more than twice as much.
What is your point?
What does this even mean? Maybin certainly was going to have his numbers improve after leaving SD. He's currently about a 1.5-2 WAR player (slightly above average offense/slightly below average defense). What does that have to do with the season Cain is having?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Interesting.
There is also the defensive side of the picture.
I think it is also worth emphasizing that they have improved a similar amount this year, but the jumping off point is quite different.
Prior to 2015 for Cain is: .279/.326/.392/.718
For Maybin it is: .246/.309/.365/.674
If you have Cain's baseline, a career year makes you a star. Not so with Maybin. Also the improvement in Cain's power numbers this year is quite a bit more than Maybin's. So there are similarities, but also some important differences--both with respect to offense and defense.
Chip said it in the booth several times when smoltz was there lol.
