TOP 30 PROSPECTS: New Year's Eve Edition

nsacpi said:
During his age 19 season in low A, Wisler had a K rate of 8.9 and 2.2. Toussaint so far this year is around 7 and 4 on K and walk rate.

Teheran at age 19 was 10.3 and 2.3 in his time in low A. That year he started in low A and ended up in AA.

Not saying Toussaint is chopped liver, but he is not an elite prospect. I have him rated as our second best pitching prospect and said his chances of making it as a major league starter are a little less than 50%. I have an appreciation for what a steep climb it is to being a middle of the rotation major league starter. Guys like Wood, Miller and Teheran were really really impressive coming up the minors.
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Lulz on Toussaint not being a potentially elite prospect. DeGrom had a 7.8 K/9 as a 24-year-old in A ball. So?

Guys progress differently. Sometimes a guy has more middling stuff but great command, so his K rate is great in the lower minors but it decreases as he moves up. Other times, a guy has great stuff but for various reasons, his K rate is lower until he starts figuring things out as he gets older.

Toussaint is a potential top-end starter due to stuff, period. Suggesting anything less is stupid at this point. He's hardly even thrown his best pitch this year. It would not be a surprise at all if he comes out next year in A+ and has a K rate of 9 or better. But only then would he be a top prospect?

Also, I don't really get why people are so bullish on Herbert yet. What would justify him being above Dustin Peterson, or even Riley?
 
nsacpi said:
I may have underrated Juan Yepez
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All these kids from the GCL are not going to make it but in 2-3 years the farm system is going to be even more loaded than it is now. Gives the front office a lot of flexibility with both the talent in the bigs and in the upper levels of the system.
 
clvclv said:
Will toss mine out there for comparison...

https://whensidslidcronies.wordpress.com/2015/08/05/braves-top-30-prospects-midseason-2015/
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I agree with yours almost entirely. I personally wouldn't list Olivera as a prospect, but BA does, and if you do I guess you have to put him #1. Other than that, I'd slide Davidson up to 7 ahead of the Mallex/Ruiz/Sims group, and I'd move Yepez up into the top 20.

But a really good list.

And if I was to rank Wisler, Folty, and Banuelos, I'd slot Wisler in just behind Albies, I'd put Folty between Allard and Jenkins, and I'd put Banuelos somewhere in the middle of the Davidson/Mallex/Ruiz group.
 
clvclv said:
Will toss mine out there for comparison...

https://whensidslidcronies.wordpress.com/2015/08/05/braves-top-30-prospects-midseason-2015/
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I like your list. One comment I would make is that I don't necessarily consider Braxton Davidson taking a lot of pitches to be an advanced approach. I think he is taking some pitches early in counts that he can drive and is getting himself into pitchers counts where he has to shorten up and protect the plate. Braxton actually leads the South Atlantic League in strike outs looking if Minor League Central's stats are correct.

I think Braxton is doing two things right now that hurt him. One, he starts to open his hips up before his front heel hits the ground. Two, I think he is taking pitches early in the count that he can drive in an effort to get a better pitch later in the count that he can drive, and he's not getting that better pitch later in the count. He needs to retool his lower body some, and he needs to be more aggressive early in the count. He should be matching Austin Riley's power, but he's not going to come close to it if he keeps doing what he's doing.
 
The impressive group in the rookie leagues has scrambled my Top 30 quite a bit. This is a good thing. With the rookie league seasons winding down, this is a good time to put out my updated list.

1. Albies
2. Allard
3. Mallex Smith
4. Soroka
5. Riley
6. Yepez
7. Davidson
8. Acuna
9. Toussaint
10. Gant
11. Daniel Castro
12. Sims
13. Ricardo Sanchez
14. Rio Ruiz
15. Dustin Peterson
16. Jenkins
17. Janas
18. Povse
19. Herbert
20. Lien
21. Ventura
22. Camargo
23. Dykstra
24. Josh Graham
25. Dilmer Mejia
26. Hursh
27. Isranel Wilson
28. Thurman
29. Obregon
30. Dave Peterson

I've leaving off pitchers coming off significant injuries just because it is hard to assess how they will recover.
 
nsacpi said:
The impressive group in the rookie leagues has scrambled my Top 30 quite a bit. This is a good thing. With the rookie league seasons winding down, this is a good time to put out my updated list.

1. Albies
2. Allard
3. Mallex Smith
4. Soroka
5. Riley
6. Yepez
7. Davidson
8. Acuna
9. Toussaint
10. Gant
11. Daniel Castro
12. Sims
13. Ricardo Sanchez
14. Rio Ruiz
15. Dustin Peterson
16. Jenkins
17. Janas
18. Povse
19. Herbert
20. Lien
21. Ventura
22. Camargo
23. Dykstra
24. Josh Graham
25. Dilmer Mejia
26. Hursh
27. Isranel Wilson
28. Thurman
29. Obregon
30. Dave Peterson

I've leaving off pitchers coming off significant injuries just because it is hard to assess how they will recover.
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Not bad really, but I have a huge problem ranking Jenkins that low. He may/may not be relegated to the pen, but his upside is more than Gant and I like Gant as well. Janas right below him makes it even more of a discrepancy for me, but that's my opinion.
 
The issue that I see right now with a lot of the pitching prospects is that they are very wild (Toussaint, Sims, Sanchez, etc.) and/or they aren't striking out enough batters even though they supposedly have the stuff to do that (Jenkins, Hursh, etc.)
 
Revised mine as well. Wilson among my HMs, but have Soroka where a first-round pick should be, in top 25. Have dropped Lipka all the way out for good this time (probably).
 
I'll be honest, nsacpi, I think your list is utterly insane.

Yepez above Davidson and Acuna above Toussaint? Ronald Acuna?

You're basically calling Acuna a borderline top-100 prospect.
 
smootness said:
You're basically calling Acuna a borderline top-100 prospect.
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I think Albies and Allard are our only Top 100 guys. Someone who is #8 on a team list is probably not even in the Top 200. If you think about it there are 30 teams. So it takes 6 or 7 per team to reach 200.
 
auyushu said:
He was 71 on BA, but right around 100ish everywhere else. After the season he's had this year it's pretty unlikely he's in the top 100 for next year I'd imagine.
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83 on MLB PP (Mid-Season) ... it's not likely he slips out, especially when considering most of these lists weigh scouting over low-level results. If he does, it wouldn't be more than a few arbitrary slots.
 
nsacpi said:
I think Albies and Allard are our only Top 100 guys. Someone who is #8 on a team list is probably not even in the Top 200. If you think about it there are 30 teams. So it takes 6 or 7 per team to reach 200.
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...sure, if all systems are equal, and they aren't. Ours is the deepest in baseball.

Put another way, you have Acuna above a consensus top-100 prospect.
 
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