TOP 30 PROSPECTS: New Year's Eve Edition

[rico43]

The path to being a major league starting pitcher is very steep. Imo Toussaint's chances are a little less than 50% to be a successful ML starting pitcher. The others I rate below him a bit less. Toussaint is not showing the kind of dominance that I would want to see before projecting him as a mid-rotation starting pitcher.

I'm generally higher on the pitchers in our system who have already reached the majors. I had Wisler as our #1 prospect before he got promoted. I like Folty and Williams Perez too. Banuelos has impressed me in his major league starts.

Btw I'm not advocating moving guys like Toussaint, Janas, Sanchez, Povse and Jenkins to the pen. I want to give them every opportunity to develop as starters. Same with Folty. I think they all have much more value if they can establish themselves as starters. But the reality is that most of them won't and the pen is their most likely destination in the majors.

I agree with all of this except saying Toussant has shown a lack of dominance.

His last 3 starts:

6/19: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K
6/28 4.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R (both solo HR), 5 BB, 5 K
7/4 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K
7/10 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R (3-run HR), 2 BB, 5 K. After rocky start in 1st (walk, walk, HR), 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K.

A 19-year-old challenging hitters in a full-season league and occasionally losing is not a bad thing. His starts have been pretty dang dominant otherwise. I can dismiss his five walks in his first start for a new organization after an nine-day layoff.

 

[nsacpi]

The rest of my Top 30:

11. Ruiz
12. Povse
13. Herbert
14. Dustin Peterson
15. Soroka
16. Camargo
17. Jenkins
18. Riley
19. Sims
20. Graham
21. Mejia
22. Ventura
23. Lien
24. Dykstra
25. Edgerton
26. Gamez
27. Hursh
28. Lipka
29. Obregon
30. David Peterson

 

[thethe]

I'm surprised you're so bullish on Janas. He hasn't been all that good aside from a handful of innings in Carolina this year.

 

[Tapate50]

I agree with all of this except saying Toussant has shown a lack of dominance.

His last 3 starts:

6/19: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K
6/28 4.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R (both solo HR), 5 BB, 5 K
7/4 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K
7/10 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R (3-run HR), 2 BB, 5 K. After rocky start in 1st (walk, walk, HR), 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K.

A 19-year-old challenging hitters in a full-season league and occasionally losing is not a bad thing. His starts have been pretty dang dominant otherwise. I can dismiss his five walks in his first start for a new organization after an nine-day layoff.

I can as well. Those are pushing pretty dominant numbers in my amateur opinion.

He could be our best pitching prospect.

 

[nsacpi]

How do you get that on Touki? Show your math. The guy throws 96+ as a teenager and a hammer curve ball. If he sniffs another pitch that equals mid rotation pitcher at the worst.

I don't like the tone of souring on kids with two starts for their new team , and "not as dominant" is an odd term to use serif as though he has been pretty dang impressive.

Strikeout rate is what I look at. Touki's are pedestrian. Same with Jenkins, which is why I don't rate him as high as others around here. I make an exception for ground ball pitchers, who don't need as many strikeouts to be effective. Please note that I have Touki ranked slightly ahead of Janas, based on other considerations such as age for level.

 

[Tapate50]

Strikeout rate is what I look at. Touki's are pedestrian. Same with Jenkins, which is why I don't rate him as high as others around here. I make an exception for ground ball pitchers, who don't need as many strikeouts to be effective.

So with that fastball and a wipeout curveball, a just turned 19 year old is most likely bullpen bound? A k per inning doesn't move the needle....

Jeez.

 

[nsacpi]

So with that fastball and a wipeout curveball, a just turned 19 year old is most likely bullpen bound? A k per inning doesn't move the needle....

Jeez.

During his age 19 season in low A, Wisler had a K rate of 8.9 and 2.2. Toussaint so far this year is around 7 and 4 on K and walk rate.

Teheran at age 19 was 10.3 and 2.3 in his time in low A. That year he started in low A and ended up in AA.

Not saying Toussaint is chopped liver, but he is not an elite prospect. I have him rated as our second best pitching prospect and said his chances of making it as a major league starter are a little less than 50%. I have an appreciation for what a steep climb it is to being a middle of the rotation major league starter. Guys like Wood, Miller and Teheran were really really impressive coming up the minors.

 

[mqt]

It was just a year ago that Albies burst onto the scene. Yepez is a much different kind of player but he's also a seventeen year old international signing off to an impressive start.

Yeah, but Albies actually had a higher BA, OBP and SLG% through this point in the GCL, showing potential for plus defense and speed at a premium position. I'm not saying Yepez is a bum, but he hasn't shown enough so far to warrant jumping up into the top 20, let alone the top 5.

 

[nsacpi]

Yeah, but Albies actually had a higher BA, OBP and SLG% through this point in the GCL, showing potential for plus defense and speed at a premium position. I'm not saying Yepez is a bum, but he hasn't shown enough so far to warrant jumping up into the top 20, let alone the top 5.

No doubt what Albies did last year was amazing and exceeded what Yepez is doing by a good margin. But I think there are strong reasons for rating Yepez highly. First, he has a pedigree based on the 1M signing bonus. Second, the Braves got a long look at him in extended spring training and decided to put him in the GCL rather than DSL. Third, he is doing well there as a 17 year old. Fourth, he is already showing some power, a commodity that still has some value in the game.

 

[auyushu]

During his age 19 season in low A, Wisler had a K rate of 8.9 and 2.2. Toussaint so far this year is around 7 and 4 on K and walk rate.

Teheran at age 19 was 10.3 and 2.3 in his time in low A. That year he started in low A and ended up in AA.

Not saying Toussaint is chopped liver, but he is not an elite prospect. I have him rated as our second best pitching prospect and said his chances of making it as a major league starter are a little less than 50%. I have an appreciation for what a steep climb it is to being a middle of the rotation major league starter. Guys like Wood, Miller and Teheran were really really impressive coming up the minors.

Considering the Dbacks weren't letting him throw his strikeout pitch at all this year, I'd say his K rate was pretty good. His K rate has improved a great deal since joining the Braves and throwing the breaking ball more often. Walk rates being high for great young pitching prospects is fairly commonplace and really says nothing about his long term viability. If he has a 4 BB rate in AAA and the majors that's an issue, in A ball not so much. And even then that's commonplace for alot of the best power pitchers early in their careers.

Kershaw and Scherzer for two examples had equally as high of walk rates in the minors and early majors.

 

[steveAKAslick]

Hursh was officially moved to the bullpen Friday, but Toussaint is a moose and Jenkins led the SL in complete games before his great AAA start. No way do those guys need to go anywhere need a bullpen except to warm up before their scheduled start.

I love the idea of grooming Follty and that 100 MPH stuff into a closer, however.

That's looking like it could be a distinct possibility now imo and thanks for the RANKINGS Rico, of course everyone isn't gonna agree with all of them and gonna have different takes on this an that but it's very fun to discuss...cheers!!

 

[steveAKAslick]

I'm surprised you're so bullish on Janas. He hasn't been all that good aside from a handful of innings in Carolina this year.

small sample size I know but in 6 games started @ Carolina (37 IP) he was 5-0 with an 0.49 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and 24 K's while giving up 18 hits, 4 walks and no HR...plus he's a ground ball pitcher which is usually a good factor for longevity in the big leagues

 

[Tapate50]

small sample size I know but in 6 games started @ Carolina (37 IP) he was 5-0 with an 0.49 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and 24 K's while giving up 18 hits, 4 walks and no HR...plus he's a ground ball pitcher which is usually a good factor for longevity in the big leagues

That's a killer stretch of ball no matter what your prospect status is.

 

[rico43]

That's a killer stretch of ball no matter what your prospect status is.

We get to watch Janas pitch tonight in Chattanooga as Mississippi goes for a five-game sweep of the first-half East champions.

 

[sturg33]

First Ozhaino thread from July last year. He got a lot of recognition last year and not just on these boards.

http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2144&highlight=Albies

Btw, Yepez with two hits and a walk in four plate appearances today. Now hitting .300 with an OPS over .800. Albies was better last year in his brief stint in the GCL before being promoted. But what Yepez is doing is pretty impressive as well.

LOL thank you for posting this... found this interesting:

It seems that wren and his staff have done a solid job getting g together the start of a nice core of prospects to hit the majors in the next three to four years.

 

[nsacpi]

One of thethe's more insightful gems.

LOL thank you for posting this... found this interesting:

 

[rico43]

Let's face the facts: if Wren doesn't sign Melvin Junior for a zillion dollars, he still has a job.

 

[rico43]

Dropping Mejia from honorable mention (6.11) ERA.

 

[KB21]

This time last year, I felt like the Braves had only one potential high level starting pitching prospect in the minor league system in Lucas Sims. It's amazing what one year can do. Now, the Braves have what I consider to be 4 high level pitching prospects in Max Fried, Touki Toussiant, Lucas Sims, and Kolby Allard. That would be 5 if you still consider Mike Foltynewicz a prospect as opposed to a rookie, and it is 6 if you still consider Matt Wisler a prospect. I also think we have added some strong back end of the rotation possibilities as well in Tyrell Jenkins, Manny Banuelos, and Ricardo Sanchez. You might be able to put Steve Janas in this category, though I feel like he may be more of a future long reliever than starter.

The Braves new old scouting staff has put together a great foundation to build upon, IMO. While I do want them to add some high end bats and potential 5 tool position players, I want to see them maintain the strong pitching throughout the system. It all starts with pitching!!

 

[striker42]

During his age 19 season in low A, Wisler had a K rate of 8.9 and 2.2. Toussaint so far this year is around 7 and 4 on K and walk rate.

Teheran at age 19 was 10.3 and 2.3 in his time in low A. That year he started in low A and ended up in AA.

Not saying Toussaint is chopped liver, but he is not an elite prospect. I have him rated as our second best pitching prospect and said his chances of making it as a major league starter are a little less than 50%. I have an appreciation for what a steep climb it is to being a middle of the rotation major league starter. Guys like Wood, Miller and Teheran were really really impressive coming up the minors.

I think it's unfair to make comparisons when guys are 19. Prospects at that age can very widely in the amount of polish they have. Toussaint apparently doesn't have as much experience pitching as your average 19 year old. The tools are there, he just doesn't quite know how to use all of them. Sure I'd like to see him overpowering more guys but I'm not counting it as a concern yet. Next season will be big for him. I'd like to see him really break out.