How Are Simmon's Defensive Metrics This Year?

[clvclv]

Why should the quality of pitchers matter on the amount of balls in Simmons zone? Unless our pitchers in years prior had the ability to make the batters hit the ball there. The simple solution is that wasn't Simmons true talent level and was just a freak season. Just like when someone has a super high BABIP in a given year. Simmons actual talent is likely at 20+ runs saved per year.

That's the question I'm asking again. Are there more balls hit in his general vicinity this year that are just outside his zone than before? You're asking someone to solve the problem without giving them all the variables in the equation. Are we shifting more this season? Has the infield been in trying to cut down a run more often? Have those things led to more balls landing in the outer edges of his zone that he'd gotten to before?

You're asking someone who hasn't had the criteria you're using explained to them to just take what you're saying as gospel when half of the MLB front offices don't.

We all get the part about career years and don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying overall - we're just asking you to explain it in a way those who aren't as statistically-inclined can understand. Having disagreements just because you've looked at a chart that others have no clue what they represent (much less what they mean) is what seems to cause a lot of the disconnect. At that point you may find that a big chunk of people that aren't convinced right now might become more convinced.

 

[auyushu]

That's the question I'm asking again. Are there more balls hit in his general vicinity this year that are just outside his zone than before? You're asking someone to solve the problem without giving them all the variables in the equation. Are we shifting more this season? Has the infield been in trying to cut down a run more often? Have those things led to more balls landing in the outer edges of his zone that he'd gotten to before?

The DRS and inside edge fielding stats actually take into account all the balls hit anywhere near him, even ones just outside his range, which is why GF was saying what you were saying made no sense Clv.

But to answer your question, no, Simmons hasn't had more balls hit just outside his range this year. He's actually had far less balls go just outside his range this year than last. He had 30 balls hit his way that were deemed impossible to make a play on last year, but only 7 of those this year. He had 26 balls hit at him last year that were considered a remote chance to get (1-10% chance to make a play), but only 13 of those balls hit at him this year.

 

[clvclv]

The DRS and inside edge fielding stats actually take into account all the balls hit anywhere near him, even ones just outside his range, which is why GF was saying what you were saying made no sense Clv.

But to answer your question, no, Simmons hasn't had more balls hit just outside his range this year. He's actually had far less balls go just outside his range this year than last. He had 30 balls hit his way that were deemed impossible to make a play on last year, but only 7 of those this year. He had 26 balls hit at him last year that were considered a remote chance to get (1-10% chance to make a play), but only 13 of those balls hit at him this year.

That helps explain the differences quite a bit. For those of us that still need convincing, the question then becomes "is that because that difference is because there have been more hard-hit balls/line drives in that range than before"? This is the reason I ask whether pitching could be part of that difference. Andrelton often has seemed to get to pop-ups and groundballs that most guys didn't get to, but are those balls line-drives instead of those recently?

 

[auyushu]

That helps explain the differences quite a bit. For those of us that still need convincing, the question then becomes "is that because that difference is because there have been more hard-hit balls/line drives in that range than before"? This is the reason I ask whether pitching could be part of that difference. Andrelton often has seemed to get to pop-ups and groundballs that most guys didn't get to, but are those balls line-drives instead of those recently?

Well the balls are graded by how difficult the play is to begin with, so how hard the ball is hit is naturally part of the labeling when they count the play as impossible, remote, unlikely, likely etc to be made.

 

[KB21]

He's not knocked for balls that aren't hit "in his zone." His numbers are down bc he's not making plays on balls that he typically does. That's not to say he's not still a great defender, but it's just a notch below what he's been.

I call BS on that. Somewhere, someone has adjusted one of the numbers in the formula, and it appears he isn't getting to as many balls as he typically does. My eyes tell me otherwise though. I don't need a number to tell me he is not only the best defensive short stop in baseball but one of the best defensive short stops in the history of the game. He still makes plays and throws that no other short stop in baseball can make. Defensive stats are useless, IMO.

 

[thewupk]

I call BS on that. Somewhere, someone has adjusted one of the numbers in the formula, and it appears he isn't getting to as many balls as he typically does. My eyes tell me otherwise though. I don't need a number to tell me he is not only the best defensive short stop in baseball but one of the best defensive short stops in the history of the game. He still makes plays and throws that no other short stop in baseball can make. Defensive stats are useless, IMO.

Tell that to the Royals

 

[gilesfan]

I call BS on that. Somewhere, someone has adjusted one of the numbers in the formula, and it appears he isn't getting to as many balls as he typically does. My eyes tell me otherwise though. I don't need a number to tell me he is not only the best defensive short stop in baseball but one of the best defensive short stops in the history of the game. He still makes plays and throws that no other short stop in baseball can make. Defensive stats are useless, IMO.

You can call BS all you want. No one is saying Simmons isn't a great SS (his numbers are still awesome this year)

Im sure the reason his numbers are slightly down is because someone sabotaged him.

 

[thewupk]

By loking at the inside fielding numbers on fangraphs it does seem Simmons hasn't had as many chances as previous years on certain types of plays. A couple of things to note thought. Those stats aren't updated nightly just like UZR and DRS. I'm not sure when they update but its likely they aren't current as of today. Secondly even by looking at that his fielding of all those different types of plays is lower in every category except routine. So it does seem he is getting to less plays even if he's getting less chances overall.

Also the most improtant thing to consider. Generally we need 3 years of defensvie data to get a decent judge on a player. The real problem is that one year of defensvie data is equal to a 3rd of one offensive season. So for all intents and purposes it's still a small sample size. Which is why we should never get worked up if someones defensive numbers are way higher or way lower in one given season. Now if we start to see a trend over 2-3 years then we can have a better idea of what's going on.

And lastly with all that being said the last thing you have to consider is that defensive skill does decline faster than one's hitting ability. So even with 1 season being a relatively small sample size in the grand scheme of things you have to consider the players age to determine if that's just a blip in the SSS world or is it real decline.

With Simmons I think first it's clear that he's getting to less balls as in previous years and that he's had less chances overall as well. That said I would wait until the season is over and all the data is in to make a final determination. And even with all that he's still a top tier SS.