Honest question for advanced stat oriented guys on Gattis

GovClintonTyree

GovClintonTyree

<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I was just on Baseball Reference marveling at Oso's .271 OBP and nine triples (that's GOT to be a record for guys over 250 lbs) and happened to check on his WAR. His very low OBP certainly hurts his oWAR, below 2, and it should. But then I noticed that his overall WAR was actually -0.2 and thought, damn, what was his dWAR? And it was -1.5, and I'm thinking, no, he doesn't cover much ground, but I don't think he's done much besides DH...

So I checked, and he'd played 11 games in LF, 71 innings, had 7 chances, made an error. And so now I'm wondering how you can get a -1.5 dWAR in 11 games with seven chances. That's 15 runs, right? 1.5? He couldn't have been that poorly rated and cost his team that many runs if he'd spent the 11 games standing on his head in LF.

Can somebody help me out?
 
I love that the Astros, who are on a world tour of making excellent decisions the past year, traded for Gattis.
 
mqt said:
I love that the Astros, who are on a world tour of making excellent decisions the past year, traded for Gattis.
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What I don't understand is how they put together all those all or nothing guys, which should result in a sparse, inconsistent offense like the Braves had last year, and managed to produce nicely. I mean Gattis is only one. Valbuena, Springer, Singleton, Carter...they're worse than he is.

I guess you mix in an Altuve and Correa, that smooths it out a bit.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
What I don't understand is how they put together all those all or nothing guys, which should result in a sparse, inconsistent offense like the Braves had last year, and managed to produce nicely. I mean Gattis is only one. Valbuena, Springer, Singleton, Carter...they're worse than he is.

I guess you mix in an Altuve and Correa, that smooths it out a bit.
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The Braves had a broadly similar all-or-nothing offense in 2013 and finished fourth in runs scored. Both that Braves team and this Astros team hit a ton of home runs (the Astros are first in the NL, the Braves were first in the NL) and both drew a healthy number of walks (the Braves were second in the NL, the Astros are fourth in the AL).

You can win with an all-or-nothing offense, you just have to do a lot of other things right. The big problem for the Braves last year was that we had a strikeout and homers offense without the homers- we were 11th in the NL.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
What I don't understand is how they put together all those all or nothing guys, which should result in a sparse, inconsistent offense like the Braves had last year, and managed to produce nicely. I mean Gattis is only one. Valbuena, Springer, Singleton, Carter...they're worse than he is.

I guess you mix in an Altuve and Correa, that smooths it out a bit.
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It wasn't the all or nothing guys who killed the Braves last year. It was the nothing or nothing guys.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I was just on Baseball Reference marveling at Oso's .271 OBP and nine triples (that's GOT to be a record for guys over 250 lbs) and happened to check on his WAR. His very low OBP certainly hurts his oWAR, below 2, and it should. But then I noticed that his overall WAR was actually -0.2 and thought, damn, what was his dWAR? And it was -1.5, and I'm thinking, no, he doesn't cover much ground, but I don't think he's done much besides DH...

So I checked, and he'd played 11 games in LF, 71 innings, had 7 chances, made an error. And so now I'm wondering how you can get a -1.5 dWAR in 11 games with seven chances. That's 15 runs, right? 1.5? He couldn't have been that poorly rated and cost his team that many runs if he'd spent the 11 games standing on his head in LF.

Can somebody help me out?
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For purposes of calculating WAR, the positional adjustment for a DH (for him) is -11.8.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Why is that? Shouldn't a DH's dWAR be 0?
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It's because a players position gets calculated into DWAR. For example positions like center and short get a bonus to their WAR for playing those positions while 1B and corner outfieders get a negative because those positions are easier to play. I would think you would agree that someone who saves 5 runs in center is more valuable than someone who saves 5 runs in right or left. This is how they account for that difference.

If you are a DH then generally you are the worst defensive player on the team. That's not always the case but odds are you are a pretty bad even as a 1B. Should a DH be given credit when he can't even play on the field? Most people view that as an extreme negative as far as value goes and it gets calcualted into WAR accordingly.
 
nsacpi said:
It wasn't the all or nothing guys who killed the Braves last year. It was the nothing or nothing guys.
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Yup. Strikeouts by themselves aren't bad. When you combine that with players who don't walk or hit for power then you have a problem. And as we have seen this year. Even if you have players that don't strikeout lik we do. If you aren't hittng for power or drawing walks then you still have problems.
 
The 2013 Braves and the 2015 Astros are fine examples that you can win with a lineup full of power and strikeouts
 
thewupk said:
It's because a players position gets calculated into DWAR. For example positions like center and short get a bonus to their WAR for playing those positions while 1B and corner outfieders get a negative because those positions are easier to play. I would think you would agree that someone who saves 5 runs in center is more valuable than someone who saves 5 runs in right or left. This is how they account for that difference.

If you are a DH then generally you are the worst defensive player on the team. That's not always the case but odds are you are a pretty bad even as a 1B. Should a DH be given credit when he can't even play on the field? Most people view that as an extreme negative as far as value goes and it gets calcualted into WAR accordingly.
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That doesn't make sense to me. Agreed that the DH is the worst defender, but if he's not playing in the field how is that a detriment? When he's on the bench he's neither helping nor hurting the defense. That player should get neither credit nor blame.

Thanks for the explanation though.
 
DirkPiggler said:
That doesn't make sense to me. Agreed that the DH is the worst defender, but if he's not playing in the field how is that a detriment? When he's on the bench he's neither helping nor hurting the defense. That player should get neither credit nor blame.

Thanks for the explanation though.
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Well, by him not playing, it forces the team to have to use another player to play on his behalf. It's just an overall negative to the success of the team
 
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