Trading Maybin this offseason

[Russ2dollas]

I don't think you can say we should have traded Maybin at the deadline. We don't know the offers.

I think Mallex can be close to Maybin and I know he's cheaper and longer controlled. We would lose a lot of power. If we are to trade Maybin I would want to have a controlled piece that makes up for that power differential. I do not think Maybin hits well enough to play a corner.

It is amazing to me how hard it's been for the Braves to find a LF.

 

[sturg33]

At this point I probably would have traded him for a pure salary dump... We seemt o have enough internal candidates to replace him. And I doubt he will be worth much for the magical 2017 season

 

[Chico]

It is one of those trades where even though the main piece we got back was an older player there is a lot of upside. To use a phrase popular with our front office they got "creative." I'm not against creativity. I just prefer that they be smart enough to avoid getting into situations where creativity becomes necessary. It seems to me they let their mantra about "never enough pitching" and getting back to the "Braves way" obscure the reality that we are in an era where hitting is relatively scarce and pitching relatively abundant.

I get that. I think lack of pitching depth has hurt them in the past and they're overcompensating.

I think back to when we were looking to sell high on Jair, then Tommy hurt his shoulder and we didn't have the reinforcements to be able to trade Jair, kept him and he lost all value, then Tommy right behind him.

The Derek Lowe and Kawakami signings were a complete waste, so we're probably gunshy about acquiring SP's via FA

Then more recently we lose Beachy and Medlen to injury and we're completely screwed.

 

[nsacpi]

Maybin is on track for a 1.5-2.0 WAR season. Last off-season hitters were going for about $7M per war. Maybin's salary for next year is 8M. His contract also has a club option for 2017 (9M with a 1M buyout).

If you think he can sustain this year's performance for the next two seasons, there is some surplus value there. To the tune of 1-2 WAR above market value over the next two years.

If you are bullish on Maybin (and I am and maybe some major league club might be) you could price him at a 2-3 WAR player over the next two years. In which case, the surplus value is 2-4 WAR above market value over the next two seasons.

He has some value.

I think whether we should keep him or not depends on whether we think we can be a team in contending range (one that projects to win 80-85 games) in 2016. As long as we have a core with guys like Freeman, Simmons and Miller, my belief is that it is not too hard to assemble a decent supporting cast to have that kind of team. And Maybin would fit in well with that kind of team. But we cannot head into the 2016 season with guys like EYJr and Callaspo having significant roles. We have to be more serious than that about competing.

 

[cajunrevenge]

At this point I probably would have traded him for a pure salary dump... We seemt o have enough internal candidates to replace him. And I doubt he will be worth much for the magical 2017 season

Who are all these internal candidates? Mallex Smith. Then who? Todd Cunningham?

 

[Enscheff]

I think whether we should keep him or not depends on whether we think we can be a team in contending range (one that projects to win 80-85 games) in 2016. As long as we have a core with guys like Freeman, Simmons and Miller, my belief is that it is not too hard to assemble a decent supporting cast to have that kind of team. And Maybin would fit in well with that kind of team. But we cannot head into the 2016 season with guys like EYJr and Callaspo having significant roles. We have to be more serious than that about competing.

This.

Add Olivera, someone like KJ to platoon with Gomes in LF (or move Olivera to LF and bring back Uribe for 3B), fix catcher somehow (AJ/CB might be worth a shot again next year), bring in a bargain MOR FA pitcher to replace Wood, add a piece or two to the BP, and I think this team is perfectly capable of getting over .500 and challenging for a playoff spot...or at least be in the conversation...especially while playing in the worst division in MLB.

A lineup/rotation of: Markakis, Maybin, Freeman, Olivera, KJ/Gomes/Uribe, catcher, Jace, Simmons and Miller, Teheran, FA, Wisler, someone

is good enough to have a chance to be a buyer at the 2016 trade deadline. It's also a roster that can be assembled without mortgaging much, if any, of the future.

 

[nsacpi]

How do you see Swisher and Bourn fitting into this scenario.

This.

Add Olivera, someone like KJ to platoon with Gomes in LF (or move Olivera to LF and bring back Uribe for 3B), fix catcher somehow (AJ/CB might be worth a shot again next year), bring in a bargain MOR FA pitcher to replace Wood, add a piece or two to the BP, and I think this team is perfectly capable of getting over .500 and challenging for a playoff spot...or at least be in the conversation...especially while playing in the worst division in MLB.

A lineup/rotation of: Markakis, Maybin, Freeman, Olivera, KJ/Gomes/Uribe, catcher, Jace, Simmons and Miller, Teheran, FA, Wisler, someone

is good enough to have a chance to be a buyer at the 2016 trade deadline. It's also a roster that can be assembled without mortgaging much, if any, of the future.

 

[Enscheff]

How do you see Swisher and Bourn fitting into this scenario.

In the scenario I described? Bench players or released. There's no chance of competing in 2016 if Bourn and/or Swisher have significant roles on the club. If that's the way the FO decides to go, then they aren't serious about improving even incrementally next year.

Swisher is already relegated to the bench or will be released, and Bourn is going to get a month of fairly steady playing time to prove what he has left in the tank. There should be no doubt going into 2016 about what he can(not) provide. In 48 PAs with the Braves he has a slash line of .116/.208/.140. That's an OPS of .348 if you don't feel like doing the math. I don't care how small of a sample it is...that is pitcher level terrible at the plate.

LF can be improved very easily and pretty significantly this offseason. How that single roster position is handled will tell us everything we need to know about what to expect for the 2016 season.

 

[nsacpi]

Before we added Olivera, Bourn and Swisher I thought we could have a competitive 2016 team by adding Zobist, Uribe and a starting pitcher. Or some similar combination. Now I'm not so sure. Note that under my scenario we would still have Peraza and Wood.

 

[Carp]

As Enscheff said, why move him if all you get is someone that couldn't potentially be a long-term piece? He's the perfect bridge to Mallex assuming he's not ready next season.

I'd say we'd be able to get more than a fringe prospect for him if he continues his current production. We won't get a top 50 piece most likely, but I think it's possible we could a top 100 prospect for him or a former top 50ish prospect who's having a down year.

 

[rico43]

I get that. I think lack of pitching depth has hurt them in the past and they're overcompensating.

I think back to when we were looking to sell high on Jair, then Tommy hurt his shoulder and we didn't have the reinforcements to be able to trade Jair, kept him and he lost all value, then Tommy right behind him.

The Derek Lowe and Kawakami signings were a complete waste, so we're probably gunshy about acquiring SP's via FA

Then more recently we lose Beachy and Medlen to injury and we're completely screwed.

We don't need revisionist history to make the scenario seem worse than it already is. We traded Hansen for Walden, who was tremendously useful in the bullpen. As for the tired litany that signing Lowe was a complete waste, it somehow manages to overlook his winning 15 games in 2009 and 16 in 2010 before he went South. The crime with Lowe was the number of years he was given in his deal.

 

[Chico]

We don't need revisionist history to make the scenario seem worse than it already is. We traded Hansen for Walden, who was tremendously useful in the bullpen. As for the tired litany that signing Lowe was a complete waste, it somehow manages to overlook his winning 15 games in 2009 and 16 in 2010 before he went South. The crime with Lowe was the number of years he was given in his deal.

Which unfortunately is how free agency works.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Which unfortunately is how free agency works.

But good front offices are good at knowing which FA are good gambles and those that are not. All signings, whether FA or not, are gambles. Some are better than others. Avoiding FA signings altogether isn't a good strategy. Avoiding bad FA signings is a good strategy.

Look at what happened to the Red Sox this offseason. Who in their right mind thought throwing the Panda that kind of money and years would be a good idea? The same goes for Ramirez, a guy who has a decent bat but had never played the position that he was going to be asked to play before in a park that is unforgiving for bad LF play?

 

[Enscheff]

Before we added Olivera, Bourn and Swisher I thought we could have a competitive 2016 team by adding Zobist, Uribe and a starting pitcher. Or some similar combination. Now I'm not so sure. Note that under my scenario we would still have Peraza and Wood.

After adding Olivera I thought that meant the plan was to be competitive in 2016. Why else would they acquire a 30 year old player? I figured that move was the first of several additions they would make to get ready for 2016, which is why I understood overpaying (in terms of talent) a bit for Olivera. It also made the Markakis signing a bit understandable since he will still be very useful next year.

Then they used up so much of the payroll for 2016 by acquiring Bourn and Swisher that they pretty much nixed any real chance of being good next year. So now I understand the markakis signing less, since they have essentially wasted 2 years of his team control. They will also waste 1 year of Olivera's contract next year while they pay Bourn and Swisher to be terrible.

Despite these seemingly contradictory moves, I still calculate the team as having anywhere from $22M-$32M available next year, and obvious needs in LF, C, SP and the BP. Someone like Parra could be had to serve as the long side of a LF platoon, C could be patched together by giving the CB/AJ combo another shot, a SP bargain could probably be found towards the end of the offseason for $10M-$15M per year, and the BP can always be fixed relatively cheaply.

If all those things happen this team could make a run at .500 next year, and possibly be buyers at the deadline. If Bourn is allowed to be the opening day LFer or CFer next year, we know they already decided to throw away 2016.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

Maybin has brought the Braves a decent offensive season from the CF spot. If he can replicate similar success next season they need to offer him a modest three year extension. The Braves haven't had anything decent from CF for awhile now. He isn't going to fetch much in return anyway I don't think. I would keep him and build up the other positions around him.