2016 Draft Position

[nsacpi]

I don't think the FO has bought into the myth like some who post around here. In recent years they have drafted Heyward, Lipka and Davidson with their first pick. They have drafted Freeman, Simmons and Riley in the second round. A bit further back they took Francoeur and McCann in rounds 1 & 2.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I don't think the FO has bought into the myth like some who post around here. In recent years they have drafted Heyward, Lipka and Davidson with their first pick. They have drafted Freeman, Simmons and Riley in the second round. A bit further back they took Francoeur and McCann in rounds 1 & 2.

True. But, they've put the Band back together. The guys making the decisions now aren't the guys who made the decisions then for the most part. The guys making the decisions now are largely the guys from the "old" days - unless you want to make the argument that Cox and Schuerholtz are calling each shot and have all along, which is a legit point to make I guess.

And, to me, the second round guys don't count for this discussion (you can't and shouldn't discount their importance to the team), it's about the first round where the best players are "supposed" to be found. And, the Braves have had some successes AND failures in the first with bats, so I agree that nothing is a given.

I guess that all I am saying is that if the Braves have the 1st overall pick in the draft and they have a choice between a drug free Josh Hamilton or an alcohol free Josh Beckett, then they shouldn't automatically default to Beckett because he is a pitcher and the Braves are THE pitching organization. If the choices appear to be equal early in the draft then they should always default for the bat since they are known to find pitching value later in the draft better than anyone.

 

[Heyward]

I dont see why it would be bad to go pitching.

Other than Miller, the whole rotation is a bunch of question marks.

Getting the next Cole/Kershaw/Bumgarner/Price etc would not suck.

 

[zitothebrave]

I dont see why it would be bad to go pitching.

Other than Miller, the whole rotation is a bunch of question marks.

Getting the next Cole/Kershaw/Bumgarner/Price etc would not suck.

You take BPA, period. Only exception to that rule would be a college 1B who can't play anywhere else. We already have a 1B who can't play anywhere else.

 

[KB21]

I have no issue with drafting pitching, and because of upside, I prefer to select high school talent rather than college talent. Yes, taking a high school pitcher high is volatile, but when you hit, you hit on a Clayton Kershaw. The majority of your college aces will be no better than a #3 starter at the ML level.

Drafting college over high school talent is what eroded the Braves farm system.

 

[zitothebrave]

I have no issue with drafting pitching, and because of upside, I prefer to select high school talent rather than college talent. Yes, taking a high school pitcher high is volatile, but when you hit, you hit on a Clayton Kershaw. The majority of your college aces will be no better than a #3 starter at the ML level.

That's simply not true.

Look at some top 5 college pitchers and HS pitchers from let's say 2008-2015

College

2008 - Matusz
2009 - Strasburg
2010 - Pomeranz
2011 - Cole, Hultzen, Bauer,
2012 - Gausman, Zimmer
2013 - Appel, Gray

High School

2008 - None
2009 - Hobgood
2010 - Taillon
2011 - Bundy
2012 - None
2013 - Stewart

So of the high picks in that sample, HS kits produced only one major leaguer so far, Stewart the young one who shouldn't be in the majors yet, is struggling in A ball. BUndy is the only one of any mention at all. He's a well regarded prospect with some big injury concerns.

Of the college pitchers, only Zimmer and Appel haven't made the bigs, they're both in high minors this year thoughso in theory could be in the bigs at any point. Cole and Strasburg are legit aces, Bauer could work his way into the discussion if he gets his HRs under control a bit,

When you're looking at college guys in the draft, they're usually the HS Sguys taken later than they wanted to sign for.

 

[zitothebrave]

To add, many of the top HS pitchers we think of now were'nt super high picks.

CC - 20th overall
Greinke - 7th overall
Kershaw - 6th
Peavy - 472nd overall
Lester - 57th overall
Waino - 29th overall
Cain - 25th overall
Shields - 466th
Bumgarner - 10th
Gio - 38th

Meanwhile when you think of the cream of the crop college guys you have

Verlander - 2nd
Weaver - 12th
Lee - 105th
Price - 1st
Scherzer - 11th
Sale - 13th
Zimmerman - 67th

So it leads you in an interesting predicament. Where is the best use of talent? Based on history you'd guess taking a high ceiling college arm (like Verlander, Strasburg, COle, etc.) in the first and a high ceiling hs pitcher in the second and later.

there's no real perfect strategy. the best thing is take BPA. Take whoever is most likely to impact the club, ignore college or prep, ignore position. Take the consensus (or most often chosen) number 1 pick in the draft.

 

[clvclv]

Updated Thursday.

 

[smootness]

I have no issue with drafting pitching, and because of upside, I prefer to select high school talent rather than college talent. Yes, taking a high school pitcher high is volatile, but when you hit, you hit on a Clayton Kershaw. The majority of your college aces will be no better than a #3 starter at the ML level.

Drafting college over high school talent is what eroded the Braves farm system.

You're focusing too much on the fact that they played in college. Playing in college, in and of itself, does not limit your ceiling. The college guys being taken at the top of the draft are high-ceiling guys.

In general, I agree with taking high-ceiling HS guys over college guys in the first 4-5 rounds, but the very top of the draft is different. There are anywhere from one to a few legit, high-ceiling college players in most drafts. If you can get that guy, you do it. If not, you take the best HS player.

 

[clvclv]

Updated Friday.

 

[KB21]

You're focusing too much on the fact that they played in college. Playing in college, in and of itself, does not limit your ceiling. The college guys being taken at the top of the draft are high-ceiling guys.

In general, I agree with taking high-ceiling HS guys over college guys in the first 4-5 rounds, but the very top of the draft is different. There are anywhere from one to a few legit, high-ceiling college players in most drafts. If you can get that guy, you do it. If not, you take the best HS player.

I think it is clearly the exception rather than the rule when it comes to college players. Take the player that is widely considered to be the top college bat this year. Nick Banks at Texas A&M. He's a very good college hitter, but the tools simply aren't there for him to be a high level pro hitter. You are probably looking at a Brett Gardner type who is going to be drafted a lot higher than he should. He is similar to Ian Happ from this past year's draft, who many Braves fans wanted Atlanta to draft. Ian Happ is not going to be an impact pro hitter.

A.J. Puk is a guy who could still have significant ceiling left in him. He is a power lefty who really didn't start coming on till later in his sophomore season, so there is still room for growth there. Still, I would favor Riley Pint and Jason Groome, who I believe both have a higher upside.

 

[zitothebrave]

I think it is clearly the exception rather than the rule when it comes to college players. Take the player that is widely considered to be the top college bat this year. Nick Banks at Texas A&M. He's a very good college hitter, but the tools simply aren't there for him to be a high level pro hitter. You are probably looking at a Brett Gardner type who is going to be drafted a lot higher than he should. He is similar to Ian Happ from this past year's draft, who many Braves fans wanted Atlanta to draft. Ian Happ is not going to be an impact pro hitter.

A.J. Puk is a guy who could still have significant ceiling left in him. He is a power lefty who really didn't start coming on till later in his sophomore season, so there is still room for growth there. Still, I would favor Riley Pint and Jason Groome, who I believe both have a higher upside.

Comparing pitchers and hitters if foolish. Even then, most top 5 college picks make it to the majros, can't say the same with HS players. Let's look at a 3 year sample where a HS player should be up by now, say 04-06 It's the internet, I'm sure you'll sight sample bias, I didn't pick these years in advance, these are also early internet pre-smartphone era drafts as well where the insane amount of info we have today wasn't readily available.

04 draft featured 2 HS and 3 college players. Number 1 pick Matt Bush(HS) couldn't make it out of A ball, Number 2 pick Justin Verlander is a bonafide ace, number 3 pick Philip Humber had a pretty bad major league career but made it, number 4 pick Jeff Niemann had a mediocre major league career, and number 5 pick Mark ROgers (HS) was about the equivalent of Humber,

05 Draft had 1 HS player nad 4 college players. Number 1 pick Justin Upton (HS) went on to be a major league star, Number 2 pick Alex Gordon had a rocky starty but has turned into a really good player, Number 3 pick Jeff Clement sucked in the majors, Number 4 pick Ryan Zimmerman for a bit was one of the best 3B in baseball until his shoulder went, number 5 pick Ryan Braun is one of the best right handed hitters in baseball.

06 Draft was all colelge players. Hochevar had a mediocre major league career, Greg Reynolds sucked in the majors, Evan Longoria has been one of the best 3B in the majors, Brad Lincoln has barely been above replacement in the majors, and Brandon Morrow has been a solid major leaguer.

IN that sample you had 3 HS kids taken, one star, one decent and one bum. You had 12 college kids taken, 5 are stars or great players 2 really suck, some are solid some are decent.

For fun I'll keep going though just not roll it into my counting total

07 - 2 HS players 3 college, all got ot the majors. Players ranked in rWAR go David Price, Matt Wieters, Mike Moosetacos, Daniel Moskos, Josh Vitters
08 - 2 HS players 3 college, All got to the majors, players rand in rWAR go Posey, Hosmer, Alvarez, Matusz, Beckham
09 - 2 HS players 3 college- All college players go to majors no HS, ranked in rWAR Strasburg, Ackley, Sanchez, Tate, Hobgood (last 2 DNP obv)
10 - 2 HS palyers, 2 college player, 1 juco - Harper, Machado, Pomeranz, Colon, Tailon didn't make majors
11 - 2 HS players 3 college - 1 HS and 1 colelge didn't make bigs yet (though one who did from HS was Bundy who the orioles brought into the pen in 2012 and sent him back to develop so doesn't really count IMO) Ranked, Cole, Bauer, Bundy, Hultzen/Starling
12 - 2 HS players 3 college - both HS players got to bigs, one college did not. Correa, Zunino, Gausman, Buxton. Zimmer

Basically my point is this. The top college players are usually really good. At worst they make it to the bigs. Some top HS guys don't work out at all. Of course some are Machado as well.

Worrying about potential isn't the important thing, it's who will be the best major leaguer. While you sometimes lose a bit on ceiling in a college guy. As my list proves, sometimes colelge guys like Strasburg, Verlander, etc. are really great.

 

[clvclv]

Updated Saturday.

 

[KB21]

Comparing pitchers and hitters if foolish. Even then, most top 5 college picks make it to the majros, can't say the same with HS players. Let's look at a 3 year sample where a HS player should be up by now, say 04-06 It's the internet, I'm sure you'll sight sample bias, I didn't pick these years in advance, these are also early internet pre-smartphone era drafts as well where the insane amount of info we have today wasn't readily available.

04 draft featured 2 HS and 3 college players. Number 1 pick Matt Bush(HS) couldn't make it out of A ball, Number 2 pick Justin Verlander is a bonafide ace, number 3 pick Philip Humber had a pretty bad major league career but made it, number 4 pick Jeff Niemann had a mediocre major league career, and number 5 pick Mark ROgers (HS) was about the equivalent of Humber,

05 Draft had 1 HS player nad 4 college players. Number 1 pick Justin Upton (HS) went on to be a major league star, Number 2 pick Alex Gordon had a rocky starty but has turned into a really good player, Number 3 pick Jeff Clement sucked in the majors, Number 4 pick Ryan Zimmerman for a bit was one of the best 3B in baseball until his shoulder went, number 5 pick Ryan Braun is one of the best right handed hitters in baseball.

06 Draft was all colelge players. Hochevar had a mediocre major league career, Greg Reynolds sucked in the majors, Evan Longoria has been one of the best 3B in the majors, Brad Lincoln has barely been above replacement in the majors, and Brandon Morrow has been a solid major leaguer.

IN that sample you had 3 HS kids taken, one star, one decent and one bum. You had 12 college kids taken, 5 are stars or great players 2 really suck, some are solid some are decent.

For fun I'll keep going though just not roll it into my counting total

07 - 2 HS players 3 college, all got ot the majors. Players ranked in rWAR go David Price, Matt Wieters, Mike Moosetacos, Daniel Moskos, Josh Vitters
08 - 2 HS players 3 college, All got to the majors, players rand in rWAR go Posey, Hosmer, Alvarez, Matusz, Beckham
09 - 2 HS players 3 college- All college players go to majors no HS, ranked in rWAR Strasburg, Ackley, Sanchez, Tate, Hobgood (last 2 DNP obv)
10 - 2 HS palyers, 2 college player, 1 juco - Harper, Machado, Pomeranz, Colon, Tailon didn't make majors
11 - 2 HS players 3 college - 1 HS and 1 colelge didn't make bigs yet (though one who did from HS was Bundy who the orioles brought into the pen in 2012 and sent him back to develop so doesn't really count IMO) Ranked, Cole, Bauer, Bundy, Hultzen/Starling
12 - 2 HS players 3 college - both HS players got to bigs, one college did not. Correa, Zunino, Gausman, Buxton. Zimmer

Basically my point is this. The top college players are usually really good. At worst they make it to the bigs. Some top HS guys don't work out at all. Of course some are Machado as well.

Worrying about potential isn't the important thing, it's who will be the best major leaguer. While you sometimes lose a bit on ceiling in a college guy. As my list proves, sometimes colelge guys like Strasburg, Verlander, etc. are really great.

That philosophy is why the Braves farm system was rated 29th prior to this season. Atlanta spent too much time drafting college guys that will make it to the majors or to AAA and did not use many picks on high ceiling high school players.

When I'm picking high, I want the player who is a potential superstar. I don't want someone that is just going to be a ho hum major league player.

 

[nsacpi]

There isnt much disagreement that you want to use your early picks for high upside primarily high school players. But zito's evidence indicates that you need to keep an open mind about elite college players when u have a very early pick.

That philosophy is why the Braves farm system was rated 29th prior to this season. Atlanta spent too much time drafting college guys that will make it to the majors or to AAA and did not use many picks on high ceiling high school players.

When I'm picking high, I want the player who is a potential superstar. I don't want someone that is just going to be a ho hum major league player.

 

[smootness]

There isnt much disagreement that you want to use your early picks for high upside primarily high school players. But zito's evidence indicates that you need to keep an open mind about elite college players when u have a very early pick.

Exactly this. You can't make blanket statements about anything. Nick Banks is projected to be around the bottom of the top 10; he's very unlikely to be a top 5, much less top 2, pick. So I'm not saying we should draft Nick Banks. I'm just saying that college players who go at the very top of the draft are different from those who go even later in the first round.

The last two college bats taken in the top 5 were Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. Going back further, you find Posey, Longoria, Braun, and Tulowitzki.

You just have to take it as it comes. I certainly agree with going high upside early, and once you're past the first few picks, that's usually HS. But saying, 'We shouldn't ever take a college player high because they have a low ceiling,' is dumb and unnecessarily limits your pool. Because some of them do have very high ceilings. Going to college does not limit your talent level.

 

[KB21]

Exactly this. You can't make blanket statements about anything. Nick Banks is projected to be around the bottom of the top 10; he's very unlikely to be a top 5, much less top 2, pick. So I'm not saying we should draft Nick Banks. I'm just saying that college players who go at the very top of the draft are different from those who go even later in the first round.

The last two college bats taken in the top 5 were Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber. Going back further, you find Posey, Longoria, Braun, and Tulowitzki.

You just have to take it as it comes. I certainly agree with going high upside early, and once you're past the first few picks, that's usually HS. But saying, 'We shouldn't ever take a college player high because they have a low ceiling,' is dumb and unnecessarily limits your pool. Because some of them do have very high ceilings. Going to college does not limit your talent level.

As I have said, that elite college player who has significant upside is the exception, not the rule, IMO. Between 2000 and 2010, 18 collegiate pitchers were drafted in the top 5 picks. Of those, only 3 have gone on to become elite pitchers at the MLB level. Now, all but one made it to the majors, but the majority of those have topped out as bullpen guys or back end rotation pitchers.

 

[smootness]

As I have said, that elite college player who has significant upside is the exception, not the rule, IMO. Between 2000 and 2010, 18 collegiate pitchers were drafted in the top 5 picks. Of those, only 3 have gone on to become elite pitchers at the MLB level. Now, all but one made it to the majors, but the majority of those have topped out as bullpen guys or back end rotation pitchers.

Show me the numbers on the HS pitchers taken in the top 5.

You seem to be suggesting that we should never go college at the top of the draft. That would be a dumb rule to limit yourself. There are absolutely high-ceiling college players worth taking that high. Not necessarily every year, but it's not that rare.

ETA: I checked myself on the HS pitchers. 9 taken in the top 5 during that same span...the best one? Gavin Floyd. Most never made the majors. So what, exactly, is the argument?

Also, who did you not count as elite among the college group? Prior, Verlander, Price, and Strasburg...all elite when healthy.

I'll take a 20-25% shot at a guy like that with the risk of missing out on the next Gavin Floyd all day.

 

[Julio3000]

 

[KB21]

Show me the numbers on the HS pitchers taken in the top 5.

You seem to be suggesting that we should never go college at the top of the draft. That would be a dumb rule to limit yourself. There are absolutely high-ceiling college players worth taking that high. Not necessarily every year, but it's not that rare.

ETA: I checked myself on the HS pitchers. 9 taken in the top 5 during that same span...the best one? Gavin Floyd. Most never made the majors. So what, exactly, is the argument?

Also, who did you not count as elite among the college group? Prior, Verlander, Price, and Strasburg...all elite when healthy.

I'll take a 20-25% shot at a guy like that with the risk of missing out on the next Gavin Floyd all day.

What you are missing out on is a Clayton Kershaw, a Zach Grienke, and a Madison Bumgarner who were taken just outside of the top 5 where teams took limited college arms instead of them. In 2006, Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow, and Andrew Miller were taken before Clayton Kershaw. In 2007, Daniel Moskos and Ross Detwiller were taken over Jarrod Parker and Madison Bumgarner. Go look at the college pitchers that were taken over Adam Wainwright in 2000.

I understand the point that there are exceptions with college players, but if you give me the choice between David Price and Madison Bumgarner, I'm taking Bumgarner every day. Bumgarner and Kershaw are the top two pitchers in all of baseball right now, IMO. Who would you rather have from the 2002 draft? Bryan Bullington, who went #1 to Pittsburgh out of Ball State, or Zack Greinke who went 7th to Kansas City out of Apopka HS?

In 2009, I'll give you Strausberg as an exception. However, would you rather have Mike Minor or Zach Wheeler? Mike Leake or Shelby Miller?