All the Jobs Lost ...

57Brave

57Brave

Well-known member
by the passage of ACA

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57Brave said:
by the passage of ACA

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I'm so certain you have no clue about what drives an economy and what doesn't. The 0% interest rates for 5 years have helped... Meanwhile, wages are flat and underemployment is as high as ever

Also, I believe the argument was the ACA was going to increase heal premiums... which is true. Oh by the way, my health insurance is going up another 23% next year.

I know I know... it's somehow my fault
 
sturg33 said:
I'm so certain you have no clue about what drives an economy and what doesn't. The 0% interest rates for 5 years have helped... Meanwhile, wages are flat and underemployment is as high as ever

Also, I believe the argument was the ACA was going to increase heal premiums... which is true. Oh by the way, my health insurance is going up another 23% next year.

I know I know... it's somehow my fault
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Wages rose 2.5% this year which is really good actually. And underemployment has been decreasing as well.

The jobs report was really strong. A lot of reason for optimism.
 
Still a lot of concern though. Leading into holiday quarter can be a boom we need to see where we are in January.
 
The Obama economy is doing so well that Yellen recently discussed the possibility of a negative interest rate.
 
weso1 said:
The Obama economy is doing so well that Yellen recently discussed the possibility of a negative interest rate.
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Did you know that Obama banned that word during his reign unless it is about Republicans. The media would never report this. They need that control over you and the Borg known as Dummicrats.

"I am Barrack Hussein Obamacus the Borg. We are the Obamas, resistance is futile, your intellect will be absorb in our conscience and any thoughts of freedom of will be purged from you, you will be an Obama."
 
weso1 said:
The Obama economy is doing so well that Yellen recently discussed the possibility of a negative interest rate.
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Hasn't the rhetoric been for the past 6 months to raise the federal rate? In fact, I would be stunned if it's not raised in December.

The economy is strong.
 
sturg33 said:
The fact that they haven't been raised yet is ridiculous
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I wouldn't say ridiculous. Anytime the Fed whispered about raising the rates the economy would quiver. For something that is shown to only affect the short run economy, it makes more sense not to do things that would buck market confidence.
 
chop2chip said:
I wouldn't say ridiculous. Anytime the Fed whispered about raising the rates the economy would quiver. For something that is shown to only affect the short run economy, it makes more sense not to do things that would buck market confidence.
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The economy wouldn't quiver... the stock market would because it has gotten drunk off of easy money for the past decade.
 
sturg33 said:
The economy wouldn't quiver... the stock market would because it has gotten drunk off of easy money for the past decade.
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The stock market is its own beast, but it's foolish to think it doesn't affect the economy as a whole.

The economy is largely a function of everyone buying in. If investor confidence wanes, then stock prices drop. Joe Middleclass who is 60 sees his retirement fund shrink and decides maybe this year he shouldn't get a new car this year. You get the idea.

My point is, the fed rate is largely inconsequential in the long run, but hugely influential in the short. If you do things that rattle confidence in the short run, then perhaps it's best to wait until the economy can accept that change. The main reason the Fed keeps hinting at raising the fed rate is so it doesn't shock investors and cause them to react unexpectedly.
 
chop2chip said:
The stock market is its own beast, but it's foolish to think it doesn't affect the economy as a whole.

The economy is largely a function of everyone buying in. If investor confidence wanes, then stock prices drop. Joe Middleclass who is 60 sees his retirement fund shrink and decides maybe this year he shouldn't get a new car this year. You get the idea.

My point is, the fed rate is largely inconsequential in the long run, but hugely influential in the short. If you do things that rattle confidence in the short run, then perhaps it's best to wait until the economy can accept that change. The main reason the Fed keeps hinting at raising the fed rate is so it doesn't shock investors and cause them to react unexpectedly.
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But isn't that suggesting that the economy is not strong if it can be so easily shaken by a preposterously small rate hike of 25bps?
 
sturg33 said:
But isn't that suggesting that the economy is not strong if it can be so easily shaken by a preposterously small rate hike of 25bps?
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No. Simply that you had everyone used to an interest rate of 0% for 5 years. You can't just change things overnight and expect consistency.

The prime reason for keeping the fed rate at 0% for so long is that it was working. You have to squint real hard to look at the recent jobs report to see signs of distress with the economy.
 
And what about the jobs reports for the previous few months... there's a reason the fed kept delaying the rate hike...
 
sturg33 said:
And what about the jobs reports for the previous few months... there's a reason the fed kept delaying the rate hike...
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There is a reason they delayed the hike and they specifically cited concerns with Europe and China's economies as the primary concern. Last month, Yellen stated that the economy was healthy enough that the concerns over external economies was diminished. Again, another intended foreshadowing to a December rate hike which has been the plan for the past six months.

And the jobs reports were fine. They hinted at an economy that was improving, albeit slowly. Nothing that suggested a struggling economy, in a general sense at least.
 
chop2chip said:
There is a reason they delayed the hike and they specifically cited concerns with Europe and China's economies as the primary concern. Last month, Yellen stated that the economy was healthy enough that the concerns over external economies was diminished. Again, another intended foreshadowing to a December rate hike which has been the plan for the past six months.

And the jobs reports were fine. They hinted at an economy that was improving, albeit slowly. Nothing that suggested a struggling economy, in a general sense at least.
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You can't, on one hand say the economy is good bc they MIGHT raise the rates a minuscule amount, then on the other hand suggest that it wasn't the economy's fault that they haven't raised them yet.

This is the worst economic recovery from a recession since WW2... and that's with the Fed babysitting and manufacturing every lever they could possibly pull.
 
sturg33 said:
You can't, on one hand say the economy is good bc they MIGHT raise the rates a minuscule amount, then on the other hand suggest that it wasn't the economy's fault that they haven't raised them yet.

This is the worst economic recovery from a recession since WW2... and that's with the Fed babysitting and manufacturing every lever they could possibly pull.
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You absolutely can say the economy is in good health and accept why the Fed hasn't raised the rates. Like I have said, the Fed doesn't do things immediately. They use forward guidance to allow banks, investors, Joe Middle Class with a mortgage, etc. to preview what the Federal Reserve intends to do months, if not full years so that they can plan around changing interest rates.

Any hike/decline in the Fed rate can never be considered minuscule when it relates to a 20 trillion dollar economy. The economy is like a huge ship where even the slightest shift in direction has severe effects that can take years to reverse. The fact that the Fed is comfortable raising interest rates again is promising.

The "worst economic recovery" jargon is so nonsensical considering how vastly different nearly every element of the economy is since WW2. It's like comparing a pitcher's ERA from 2015 with those of the Dead Ball era. You are way too smart with fiscal issues to be that lazy with your use of "Facebook rant" level remarks.
 
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