Coppy Quots

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
"You can make an argument that we are actually a team that can win more games with Aybar,” Coppolella said. “Aybar is a career .276 hitter; Simmons has never hit .276 in a full season. Aybar’s a switch-hitter, 18 months back an All-Star, he can hit (first or second in the order) for you. I mean, Aybar’s a really good player. I think we traded defense for offense in this trade. The fact that we got two huge-upside arms is great, but as far as for 2016, I don’t think that’s a big step back for this Braves team.

“I think where it will hurt is more in 2017, 2018, if Aybar ends up as a free-agent player. Maybe we can sign him long term; I think we need to find out more about him, he needs to find out more about us. But at the end of it, he’s a really good player. He was a huge part of this deal. This wasn’t just some kind of prospect trade. This was a value-for-value trade that had some really good prospects in it.”

Coppy continued, “We can’t have a year like we had last year. That’s why we had to get back major league value. Since we made the trade two or three hours ago, we have gotten three calls on Aybar already, from teams that want to trade for him. He’s a really good hitter, somebody that can play short. Somebody that our staff really liked and our scouts really liked. He’s a good player. So we’re very happy to have Aybar.”
 
I know this is BS GM-speak and he has to pretend to love Aybar, but criminy, where to start with this?

Here, I guess:

"We can’t have a year like we had last year. That’s why we had to get back major league value."

So, yannow, Erick Aybar.
 
The part about signing Aybar long-term is cute. Is he thinking Aybar will sign below market once he experiences the charms of playing in Atlanta?
 
I think his quotes are accurate. in 14 Aybar actually had a higher WAR than Simmons. Replacing Simmons with Aybar this season really doesn't hurt the team much if at all. With that in mind I would trade Aybar and I'm fine having a year like we did last year.
 
weso1 said:
I think his quotes are accurate. in 14 Aybar actually had a higher WAR than Simmons. Replacing Simmons with Aybar this season really doesn't hurt the team much if at all. With that in mind I would trade Aybar and I'm fine having a year like we did last year.
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Is there a reason you don't mention 2015. Or choose not to look at the 3 year total, which is probably better than any given recent year. Or the 2016 projection by the statistical models.

I wouldn't be bothered by Coppy cherry picking stats and focusing on something idiotic like career average if I thought all was that was going on was spinning. But I think he is an honest God-fearing young man (he did thank God in the press conference announcing his promotion to GM). And I'm afraid he sincerely believes that Aybar will add as much value as Simmons next year. And I think he and Hart are sincere in believing Markakis was a smart signing. I'd be ok if I thought it was spinning. But I think they are for the most part sincere in their public utterances. Sometimes incoherent but sincere.
 
Let me start off by saying I don't love the package we got. I couldn't be happier with Newcomb as the centerpiece but we needed something better then Ellis. Having said that, I do agree that we might be better next year with this deal. Aybar is not great but a solid starting SS. He's definitely an offensive improvement over Simmons but obviously a clear defensive downgrade. This team needs offense, we we got a solid #2 type hitter who can steal some bases. We're a better offensive team after this move.

My issue though is we're going to be so bad this year that I would rather try to get something for Aybar. Maybe Plawecki from the Mets?
 
If both Aybar and Simmons stay relatively healthy, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Aybar is more productive than Simmons in 2016. Possible but very unlikely.

The overall exchange of assets seems to be fair, with some evaluators feeling that the value tilts in the Braves favor. But it's hard to see how this trade doesn't hurt the 2016 projection a little bit unless the presence of Newcomb and Ellis leads to a trade of SP talent for positional talent.
 
emk418 said:
We're a better offensive team after this move.
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Steamer projection for Aybar in 2016: .271/.309/.371

For Simmons: .260/.311/364

Now Steamer is not perfect. Far from it. Maybe you and Coppy know better. But to me it is far from obvious that Aybar will be better offensively in 2016.
 
weso1 said:
I think his quotes are accurate. in 14 Aybar actually had a higher WAR than Simmons. Replacing Simmons with Aybar this season really doesn't hurt the team much if at all. With that in mind I would trade Aybar and I'm fine having a year like we did last year.
Click to expand...

In honor of the political season, I took the liberty of fact checking his statements.

"You can make an argument that we are actually a team that can win more games with Aybar,”

You can make that argument. He's 1-1 so far.

“Aybar is a career .276 hitter; Simmons has never hit .276 in a full season. Aybar’s a switch-hitter, 18 months back an All-Star,"

All true. A veritable tsunami of facts so far.

"he can hit (first or second in the order) for you."

He certainly can, particularly if you like a .300 OBP in the leadoff spot. But shut up because Kansas City Royals.

" I mean, Aybar’s a really good player."

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

"I think we traded defense for offense in this trade."

We did.

"The fact that we got two huge-upside arms is great,"

Agreed.

"but as far as for 2016, I don’t think that’s a big step back for this Braves team."

Define "big"?

“I think where it will hurt is more in 2017, 2018, if Aybar ends up as a free-agent player."

Not able to determine veracity. Speculation. Also LOL @ "if."

"Maybe we can sign him long term; I think we need to find out more about him, he needs to find out more about us."

Hi Erick. We're the Braves. We like high-upside arms, aging Cubans, the name "John," and suburban sprawl.

Hi Braves. I'm Erick. I like money.

Sounds like a good fit!

"But at the end of it, he’s a really good player."

Erm.

"He was a huge part of this deal."

No, he wasn't. Unless he's training with Gerald Laird. I rate it "reason to disbelieve."

"This wasn’t just some kind of prospect trade."

This statement earns our dreaded "liar, liar, suspenders on fire" designation.

"This was a value-for-value trade that had some really good prospects in it.”

That's just insulting.

“We can’t have a year like we had last year."

Factually inaccurate, except in the most literal sense.

"That’s why we had to get back major league value."

Please continue, Governor.

"Since we made the trade two or three hours ago, we have gotten three calls on Aybar already, from teams that want to trade for him."

I'll buy that.

"He’s a really good hitter, somebody that can play short."

He is definitely someone who can play shortstop. Half-true, gonna round it up.

"Somebody that our staff really liked and our scouts really liked."

Ok, I guess.

"He’s a good player. "

Aiight.

"So we’re very happy to have Aybar.”

No reason to believe otherwise.

I'm going to give him a final grade of "mostly true." Good call, Weso.
 
Entirely GM speak to phrase it as a win-now move. When we flip Aybar for prospects, we will stop hearing about Aybar as a solid SS option for us.
 
mqt said:
Entirely GM speak to phrase it as a win-now move. When we flip Aybar for prospects, we will stop hearing about Aybar as a solid SS option for us.
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Yep. Which is stupid. The fans see through it anyway. This FO needs to start just being honest with the fan base. We can handle it, but we need to at least see that there is a plan in place.
 
nsacpi said:
Is there a reason you don't mention 2015. Or choose not to look at the 3 year total, which is probably better than any given recent year. Or the 2016 projection by the statistical models.

I wouldn't be bothered by Coppy cherry picking stats and focusing on something idiotic like career average if I thought all was that was going on was spinning. But I think he is an honest God-fearing young man (he did thank God in the press conference announcing his promotion to GM). And I'm afraid he sincerely believes that Aybar will add as much value as Simmons next year. And I think he and Hart are sincere in believing Markakis was a smart signing. I'd be ok if I thought it was spinning. But I think they are for the most part sincere in their public utterances. Sometimes incoherent but sincere.
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If there's anyone who understands statistical models and advanced metrics, it's Coppy. He uses things like career average because he thinks the fans will buy it. He knows Aybar is just a one-year stopgap and likely to be worse than Simmons this year. There's no chance of us re-signing Aybar. We're buying time until Albies.
 
smootness said:
If there's anyone who understands statistical models and advanced metrics, it's Coppy. He uses things like career average because he thinks the fans will buy it. He knows Aybar is just a one-year stopgap and likely to be worse than Simmons this year. There's no chance of us re-signing Aybar. We're buying time until Albies.
Click to expand...

That's reassuring.
 
I'll be rooting for Aybar to have a big season. Followed by a QO and draft pick. I figure that happens if he is 2 WAR or better in 2016.
 
I guess the reason my jimmies aren't rustled like some of you folks about the Coppy quotes is because I don't really get hung up in the details. Essentially what he's saying is that Aybar actually is a nice part of the deal and they may not lose as much this season in replacing Simmons because Aybar is a decent SS. And you can look at the numbers yourself and figure it out. A median season from Aybar is no more than one win less than Simmons.

And I think if they did trade Aybar they'd get something pretty good for him. So yes Aybar does have value to this team. Possible deadline trade or QO player.

All the other stuff like avg and free agency stuff is just a socially awkward man trying to explain to the common rabble that Aybar shouldn't be overlooked.
 
Julio3000 said:
In honor of the political season, I took the liberty of fact checking his statements.

"You can make an argument that we are actually a team that can win more games with Aybar,”

You can make that argument. He's 1-1 so far.

“Aybar is a career .276 hitter; Simmons has never hit .276 in a full season. Aybar’s a switch-hitter, 18 months back an All-Star,"

All true. A veritable tsunami of facts so far.

"he can hit (first or second in the order) for you."

He certainly can, particularly if you like a .300 OBP in the leadoff spot. But shut up because Kansas City Royals.

" I mean, Aybar’s a really good player."

Well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

"I think we traded defense for offense in this trade."

We did.

"The fact that we got two huge-upside arms is great,"

Agreed.

"but as far as for 2016, I don’t think that’s a big step back for this Braves team."

Define "big"?

“I think where it will hurt is more in 2017, 2018, if Aybar ends up as a free-agent player."

Not able to determine veracity. Speculation. Also LOL @ "if."

"Maybe we can sign him long term; I think we need to find out more about him, he needs to find out more about us."

Hi Erick. We're the Braves. We like high-upside arms, aging Cubans, the surname "John," and suburban sprawl.

Hi Braves. I'm Erick. I like money.

Sounds like a good fit!

"But at the end of it, he’s a really good player."

Erm.

"He was a huge part of this deal."

No, he wasn't. Unless he's training with Gerald Laird. I rate it "reason to disbelieve."

"This wasn’t just some kind of prospect trade."

This statement earns our dreaded "liar, liar, suspenders on fire" designation.

"This was a value-for-value trade that had some really good prospects in it.”

That's just insulting.

“We can’t have a year like we had last year."

Factually inaccurate, except in the most literal sense.

"That’s why we had to get back major league value."

Please continue, Governor.

"Since we made the trade two or three hours ago, we have gotten three calls on Aybar already, from teams that want to trade for him."

I'll buy that.

"He’s a really good hitter, somebody that can play short."

He is definitely someone who can play shortstop. Half-true, gonna round it up.

"Somebody that our staff really liked and our scouts really liked."

Ok, I guess.

"He’s a good player. "

Aiight.

"So we’re very happy to have Aybar.”

No reason to believe otherwise.

I'm going to give him a final grade of "mostly true." Good call, Weso.
Click to expand...

Kill me now, Jules.
 
smootness said:
He might accept that QO.
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Which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. The Braves will likely be looking for a short term option at SS for 2017, and there will be many options that are far worse than paying $16m for one more season of Aybar.
 
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