Miller market 'hot'

smootness said:
Precisely. And we know the Red Sox are willing to overpay in prospects for current major league assets.

I know Ruiz is not a replacement for Devers, it's a clear step down; I just mean that it at least gives them a piece with real talent there. And I think you're overvaluing Benintendi a little. It may be true the Red Sox value him like you do, which is all that matters, but I've seen a 55 FV given to him, which is good but not great. I like his potential, but he's not a sure thing. Devers would clearly be the big piece in the deal. You're right that it might take more, but I'd throw in another pitching prospect (someone closer like Gant or someone further away like Sanchez) if we had to.

As for Matt, if you think that's an overpay on our end, I think you're going to be disappointed with any return we get. Either that, or you just aren't that familiar with the Red Sox prospects.

Devers is on the Albies track, so there's a good chance he's more like 1.5-2 years away, not 3. And Benintendi could fly through the minors this year. He could literally be up in the majors at just about any point, depending on how well he performs this year. I'm not saying he could be up by the end of this year, but starting next year, he'll probably be knocking on the door.
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I like those prospects. But you are giving the red sox their #2 starter maybe 1 by end of season and a more ready prospect in sims that will be in the top 100 next year. For two first round picks that are three years away. That is great they have talent but they are not once in generation type players. They are good but could just as easily wash out.
 
I just wish we would focus on trying to trade our pitching prospects not named Newcomb for hitting prospects.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I like those prospects. But you are giving the red sox their #2 starter maybe 1 by end of season and a more ready prospect in sims that will be in the top 100 next year. For two first round picks that are three years away. That is great they have talent but they are not once in generation type players. They are good but could just as easily wash out.
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And neither guy we're giving them is once-in-a-generation, either. And again, these guys are not 3 years away. They're 2 at most.

I just don't know where we got this idea that in order to trade away a good #2 SP or a pretty good SP prospect, we have to get once-in-a-generation talent in return. It's nuts. There's a decent chance that 4 years from now, Devers and Benintendi are both more valuable baseball players than either Shelby Miller or Lucas Sims. And we won't have Miller either way anyway.

If Sims will be in the top 100 next year, then there's a chance both Devers and Benintendi are in the top 20, if not top 10 next year. And there's a chance Sims crashes again or Miller's value decreases. We don't know what's going to happen, but right now, Miller/Sims is roughly comparable value to Devers/Benintendi (you could argue it either way). And Devers/Benintendi both fit our needs better and will be around longer.
 
We have more pitching than we will soon have spots for. So we either have to trade our current pieces (Miller, Teheran, Wisler) or our prospects. Even if we traded Miller and Sims both, our rotation 2-3 years from now would look something like this:

Teheran
Wisler
Newcomb
Jenkins
Fried

with Folty, Banuelos, and Gant as possibilities and guys like Allard, Toussaint, Sanchez, and Soroka starting to knock on the door.

Sims is an intriguing prospect, but he's also a bit of a luxury at this point. And considering our serious needs in positional talent, I wouldn't balk for a second if we could flip him to get legitimate talent there.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I would think so, personally. They're all in, that's for sure.
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But they're also smart and still built extremely well for the future. If we trade for them, we're not going to get more than Miller is actually worth, that's for sure. They have 5 pieces to build around that a lot of teams would kill to have only 1 of: Bryant, Russell, Arrieta, Rizzo, and Schwarber. That's pretty nuts. So they can afford to spend more now on guys like Zobrist that will then come off the books once they have to start paying their young guys.

They're definitely not going to sell off serious future pieces just for right now unless they feel that piece is expendable in some way.
 
Hmm, this would explain the D-Backs borderline obsession with Miller.

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Just a little thought experiment: would you give up Albies and Austin Riley for a #2 SP with 3 years of control and an up-and-down SP prospect?
 
Julio3000 said:
Just a little thought experiment: would you give up Albies and Austin Riley for a #2 SP with 3 years of control and an up-and-down SP prospect?
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Yeah, once you put it in terms of players we're more familiar with, of course we wouldn't do that. It's also a little hard to put ourselves in that position, though, because of where we are as a team.

If we were a team used to competing with a big payroll who had just signed a premier FA and was looking to compete now, the package becomes more attractive. Especially if Albies and Riley have good major league talent at their positions and we lack pitching. Miller has significant value right now, and Sims has legitimate talent, so they're intriguing pieces. But it's really, really hard to come up with legit hitting talent through any means other than the draft or FA.
 
Source: @Dbacks pretty close to signing Mike Leake. As another exec told me, you can't sign Greinke and stop there. If you're in, you're IN.
 
Julio3000 said:
Just a little thought experiment: would you give up Albies and Austin Riley for a #2 SP with 3 years of control and an up-and-down SP prospect?
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If my team had just gone deep into the playoffs, and had Russel and Bryant entrenched at SS and 3B?

You bet your ass I would.
 
Enscheff said:
If my team had just gone deep into the playoffs, had Russel and Bryant entrenched at SS and 3B, just spent $217M on David Price?

You bet your ass I would.
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And this is exactly how I'm hoping the Red Sox are thinking. Like I said, I think we match up well with them.
 
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