Why we should be all over Justin Upton

C

Carp

Well-known member
According to reports, Upton may be willing to accept a 1 year deal. Aside from the fact that he is familiar with the Braves and the town of Atl, there are several reasons why we match up perfectly for a 1 year reunion.

For one, while he would cost a draft pick, it would only be a 2nd rounder and we could surely recoup that sort of value either in a deadline deal or next offseason when we would offer QO once he signs elsewhere. So short term you aren't really losing much at all.

Secondly, if he is willing to accept a 1 year deal, then a team like the Braves are one of his best options. In all likelihood, we'll be looking to trade off talent again at the deadline, and if he is traded then he is not eligible for a QO from his new team, thereby increasing his value next offseason. Not only that, but he would be traded to a contender midseason, giving him a chance to win a WS.

Lastly, he would help out butts in the seats for 2016. The casuals that have soured on the team after the stars were traded would be thrilled to see someone of Upton's caliber back in ATL.

And who knows, may be he has a career year and we ride him into the playoffs, and with the supposed payroll increase next offseason, may be we actually re-sign him.
 
Interesting thought, but the Braves would give up their first non-protected pick, which would be the competitive round pick (~#35) they got from the Marlins (via the Peraza/Wood trade with the Dodgers). If they offer him a QO next offseason they would get a slightly better pick, but not much better. I don't think it's worth the risk if the upside is only improving the draft slot by 5-10 spots.

If they are going to make a play for JUP or Ces, I think I would prefer them to just go ahead and sign them to a long term deal and use either of them as a pillar for the rebuild. Assuming, of course, their prices drop to bargain levels.
 
Enscheff said:
Interesting thought, but the Braves would give up their first non-protected pick, which would be the competitive round pick (~#35) they got from the Marlins (via the Peraza/Wood trade with the Dodgers). If they offer him a QO next offseason they would get a slightly better pick, but not much better. I don't think it's worth the risk if the upside is only improving the draft slot by 5-10 spots.

If they are going to make a play for JUP or Ces, I think I would prefer them to just go ahead and sign them to a long term deal and use either of them as a pillar for the rebuild. Assuming, of course, their prices drop to bargain levels.
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IDK. I think the question is would the FO have the discipline to trade him at the deadline if he's having a great year and what they might get for him. Detroit netted Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa from the Mets for Cespedes. Cessa isn't even on the Tigers top 30 and their system is horrible. Fulmer looks pretty good but is probably a Wisler type. If he doesn't have a great year then the QO becomes risky that he would accept.

I guess I think the money could be better spent elsewhere OR, if you believe strongly in Justin, then sign him long term.
 
It's difficult for me understand why the market is this quiet for both Cespedes and J. Upton. I'm with Harry on if you're going to sign him, sign him long-term and stick him in LF.
 
Well sure, ideally you give him a longer term contract while his value is down. But I personally don't see they happening, either on his end or our end. Given his relatively young age, I don't see him accepting anything less than 150 million with a buyout clause, especially since if he has any sort of bounce back year, then he could easily get that in next year's class given the lack of talent available.
 
Why sign him for 1 year? Even if you're just going to flip him later, will you really get more than what will basically be a late 1st round pick?

Just keep the pick.
 
Making the playoffs is the last thing we need to do...since we're rebuilding we need a Top 5 pick for the next two-three years...last thing we need is to pick middle round for the next two-three
 
steveAKAslick said:
Making the playoffs is the last thing we need to do...since we're rebuilding we need a Top 5 pick for the next two-three years...last thing we need is to pick middle round for the next two-three
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what time frame are you on. I am cool with a top 10 pick next year but not after that.
 
praeceps93 said:
I think we're probably going to have a top 5 pick next year, but I think we're going to be sitting around .500 in 2017.
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that falls into my projections. I said top 10 to stay within the protected pick arena.. but build some cushion for over achievement.

I hope for a little better than .500 in 17.. but I can see that happening as well.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
that falls into my projections. I said top 10 to stay within the protected pick arena.. but build some cushion for over achievement.

I hope for a little better than .500 in 17.. but I can see that happening as well.
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Yeah I'm staying cautious until I see how our prospects perform this year. I could see us competing for a wild card spot or as a fringe NL East contender in 2017 if enough things break right. I think .500 is a realistic low floor.
 
Upton seems like a pipe dream at this point, but is still interesting to consider. A major offensive addition of his caliber would certainly accelerate things to the point where "2017: The Year" wouldn't seem as much of a reach as it does the way things are situated now.

Several questions:

1) What would you consider a 'bargain' price to add him? For me, I'm thinking in terms of the Gordon contract. Something along the lines of 5 (+) / 100 (+) ... I don't think his agent accepts anything less than that on a long-term pact (unless the Braves were to include an opt-out ... and that doesn't make a lot of sense given that the Braves aren't likely to contend until 2017/18 and that would probably be around the same time the out clause avails itself).

2) Is there 'bad blood' towards the Braves on Upton's end for the way he and his brother were unceremoniously dumped? Doesn't seem like there would be, but you never know.

3) Would Upton even want to join a non-contender and potentially waste two years of his prime for a cellar dweller?
 
One thing I wonder about is what our budget constraints might look like. I'm assuming that in the last round of budgeting some of the funds that normally go to the major league payroll were diverted to the international signing budget. I'm also assuming that the budgeting also reflects projections that attendance will decline further on top of last year's decline.

Of course, you can always backload a deal. But that is borrowing from the future. Given we are punting again in 2016 it doesn't make sense to borrow from the future in that way.
 
Ugh I know this isn't going to happen but this is such a perfect opportunity to have him long term. We have a protected pick and we are desperate for RH protection for Freeman. Don't give him a 1 year deal....I lock him up long term.

We have no impact bats coming in the OF this is such a perfect fit long term.
 
Major league players aren't as important as having cheap draft pick slots. I like the thought process of signing Justin Upton, but he's not a prospect therefore the Braves aren't going to think about him.
 
praeceps93 said:
Yeah I'm staying cautious until I see how our prospects perform this year. I could see us competing for a wild card spot or as a fringe NL East contender in 2017 if enough things break right. I think .500 is a realistic low floor.
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I think you are hanging upside right now. You have floor and ceiling mixed up.
 
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