Coach_Chris
Arizona Fall Leaguer
I get it, just making a point on how ridiculous these rankings are. I love going back and looking at top prospect lists from years before. Seems that only weather men could be wrong more and keep a job.
Baseball Prospectus Braves' top 10 prospects
- Thread starter dak
- Start date
I get it, just making a point on how ridiculous these rankings are. I love going back and looking at top prospect lists from years before. Seems that only weather men could be wrong more and keep a job.
striker42
Well-known member
He should be ready to pitch in spring training but I'd bet we're going to go slow with him. I'd expect him to start the season in extended spring training and then be added to a roster at some point.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I could see it.. I could also see him skipping rookie ball.. maybe short stint in A then A+.. if that goes well hitting AA by end of season.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
As a weather man, I despise this comment
... please let me know if you have to predict the future in your job!bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
As a weather man, I despise this comment
I do.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
And if that's true, then I'm sure your job has as much uncertainty as mine.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
yes it does. I use stats to tell my bank what the future should bring. we are right within a nice cushion
zbhargrove
Well-known member
yes it does. I use stats to tell my bank what the future should bring. we are right within a nice cushion
Economy has about the same prediction success rate as meteorology, so you're right there with me
My biggest issue with the way prospect rankings are currently done is that they always include this 'projection' where they try to sum up the whole scouting report into a 'likely' outcome...but that likely outcome is always going to be below the player's ceiling by a pretty good bit.
I just look at tool ratings and then read the full scouting report. Because you pretty much won't find any pitching prospect projected to be more than a #3 starter, which is stupid.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I can't remember if it was Baseball Prospectus or Sickels (or someone else) who splits a prospect's scores into his ceiling and his likelihood to reach that ceiling. Some of that got covered in the narrative accompanying the rankings, but you're always going to see big-time tools guys who just aren't able to get those tools to a point where they can be applied consistently at the big-league level. I think we have a nice mix of prospects, with the big caveat being so many of the top offensive prospects are about a light year away.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That's why I think your line about having 2020 vision with respect to the rebuild is spot on. In addition to being quite witty.
Right, I definitely understand that plenty of prospects won't ever put it all together. But the fact that I already understand this means I don't need them to give me a 'reasonable' projection that is simply the player's ceiling minus some amount. I'll just look at the player's ceiling, read the scouting report, and I can determine from that to a reasonable extent their chances to hit and what they could be if they do hit.
Because the likelihood is that a guy like Newcomb either becomes a very good SP, an 8/9 inning RP, or does hardly anything at the big league level. There's really not that great a chance he just turns into a decent #3 starter. So giving that as a reasonable projection simply because you took 'ace' and subtracted some for 'risk' doesn't make that much sense. Just tell me he has potential ace stuff but has serious command issues and is unlikely to ever fully reach his potential. That's much better than giving a projection of a mid-rotation starter. Because a guy like Blair has the same projection, and he and Newcomb are nothing alike as prospects and unlikely to be similar major league players.
praeceps93
Roaming in Rome
I think this is part of an interesting discussion on how prospects are categorized. There are a bunch of "#3 type pitchers" in the majors, with wildly different qualities. Some lack in overall stuff, some lack in consistency, some lack in command. One potential outcome for Newcomb is something like half-ace, half bottom of the rotation starter, depending on command and consistency. He has pitched extremely well in some games, while in others he's all over the place. I just don't think throwing a whatever ceiling on a guy is particularly insightful because it dilutes out a large amount of information.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't agree with this. A big part of the probability distribution for prospects like Newcomb is that they turn out to be a player like Jonathan Sanchez or Phil Hughes.
And I think there's very little chance that Newcomb becomes Phil Hughes. Hughes has a decent walk rate but a low K rate. And Jonathan Sanchez was not the same prospect Newcomb is, and he also did hardly anything at the big league level. I'm not sure why you used him because he was never a decent #3 starter. He actually helps prove my point.