John Sickels Updates His Braves Prospects List

yeezus said:
but saying "I don't see how it's possible to think this highly of him still" or something to that effect is silly. clearly people who do this for a living still see the potential. so we just have to see.
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I can see how people might still think he can produce. I just don't understand him showing up high on prospect lists mainly due to his age. If Nick Markakis had just come over from Cuba, should he be listed highly on prospect lists? Probably not. The window of opportunity for production really isn't that great.
 
yeezus said:
maybe some people know more than you guys do about Olivera?
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That's what I thought. He may fizzle out completely, but obviously he has a solid upside that keeps him from being proclaimed (Braves fans) garbage.

If he could really step it up, our lineup would really improve.
 
striker42 said:
I can see how people might still think he can produce. I just don't understand him showing up high on prospect lists mainly due to his age. If Nick Markakis had just come over from Cuba, should he be listed highly on prospect lists? Probably not. The window of opportunity for production really isn't that great.
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I think any player with a high chance of being an above average major leaguer should be ranked highly, regardless of age.
 
The issue with Olivera is that he has to rack up all of his value with his bat. He's not adding anything on the bases, and it's really, really hard for me to believe he's ever going to contribute much defensive value in left field. So, even if he hits, say, .270/.320/.440, which would be solidly above average based on last year's NL, he's still not contributing all that much when that line is paired nothing from the bases and the field.

And, of course, the even larger issue is Olivera's age. Even if he surprises us this year and in 2017, can we really expect him to be a positive contributor in 2018 at 33?
 
Carp said:
I think any player with a high chance of being an above average major leaguer should be ranked highly, regardless of age.
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My issue is that a mediocre player over a long career can contribute to an organization more than a guy who will be above average for 2 seasons before age catches up to him.

If we had a guarantee that Olivera was going to hit .280 with 18 HRs for the next 3 seasons, by all means rank him highly. However, when you add the fact that he looked bad last year to the issues of age, how long he's been away from the game, transitioning to the US, etc, you end up with a guy with a large chance of total failure and a limited window to be successful. That alone would keep him way down on my list.
 
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