Around Baseball Offseason Thread

smootness said:
I'm not sure yet what we'll be. I do feel like we're better than last year, but we'll see. And it's hard to gauge exactly what we were last year. We started 42-42, but we also finished 25-53 with a 14-46 stretch. That second half is a 110-loss pace.
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We overachieved in the first half and underachieved in the second half. We did lose a lot of wins. Simmons at 3.2 Miller at 3.4 and Wood at 2.0. But we did add Inciarte who was 3.3 win player for Arizona last year so it's hardly inconceivable that we wash out one of those losses, Aybar can be anywhere from a 1-4 WAR player. So odds are he wipes out what we lost in Wood.

We had a lot of young pitchers debut last year, Wisler, Folty, and Perez combined for a -0.2 fWAR. Odds are they will improve on that. Julio had an epically bad season, odds are he improves on that. Our LF production from last year sucked, Gomes, Perez, and and EYJ all sucked massively. Olivera should crush their production.
 
zitothebrave said:
We overachieved in the first half and underachieved in the second half. We did lose a lot of wins. Simmons at 3.2 Miller at 3.4 and Wood at 2.0. But we did add Inciarte who was 3.3 win player for Arizona last year so it's hardly inconceivable that we wash out one of those losses, Aybar can be anywhere from a 1-4 WAR player. So odds are he wipes out what we lost in Wood.

We had a lot of young pitchers debut last year, Wisler, Folty, and Perez combined for a -0.2 fWAR. Odds are they will improve on that. Julio had an epically bad season, odds are he improves on that. Our LF production from last year sucked, Gomes, Perez, and and EYJ all sucked massively. Olivera should crush their production.
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The Team won 10 games out of 33 starts that Miller had. We need to stop saying that losing Miller will cost us a bunch of Wins. at the most it will only cost us 10 wins from 2015.
 
DaneHill said:
Actually the answer was 'nyet'. I read that as Gammons cutesy way of saying that the Braves gave an emphatic 'No'.
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Which Probably means Baltimore's offer was only taking on like half of his salary and giving up nothing. It's all part of negotiations. Braves know Baltimore is gonna be scrambling so they're gonna hold out a little and hope they get desperate.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Lol. Then tell me how we can lose more than 10 games over 2015 when it comes to miller. We won ten games that Shelby pitched. If Shelby wasn't on our team last year would we have won only 57 games?
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Well, unless we are replaying the exact same games as last year and somehow cut and pasting another starting pitcher into Shelby Miller, then I don't understand what those 33 game scenarios last year have to do with this year.
 
chop2chip said:
Well, unless we are replaying the exact same games as last year and somehow cut and pasting another starting pitcher into Shelby Miller, then I don't understand what those 33 game scenarios last year have to do with this year.
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Because I said compared to last year we won't be much worse without miller. Thus basing our starting record compared to this year. Saying miller is a great pitcher is true. We would probably win more games with him. But the fact is we lost 23 of his games last year so any pitcher who is reasonable should hit that mark. So all things being equal we are not going to see a big drop off from last years win total by Miller.

Yes I understand Miller could win 20 games and our replacement for him only win 8. But when someone says we are going to lose more than last year because of x player then I base last years players results as my starting point.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
B But the fact is we lost 23 of his games last year so any pitcher who is reasonable should hit that mark.
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Even that's not even true. All that Zeets said was that Miller was worth 3.4 wins over replacement level. Even if you broke down each individual game and said "well Average X Player would have still lost this or won this game", you would still be able to scrounge up to at least 3 wins (or in your words "at the most 10 wins", which is what peak Barry Bonds was worth, FWIW)

And this aside from the point that's its just lazy predictive analysis. So, what if we don't see a "big drop from Miller"? The total number of wins in 2016 isn't dependent on what happened in 2015. Removing Miller and replacing him with a replacement level player means we are going to lose more games this year which could contribute to less total wins this year than last.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I hope we don't play too hard to get. We should be playing kids in RF.
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I don't think they'll play too hard to get, but I've had a tough time trying to match us up with the Os for awhile. Just a guess, but I'd expect the answer would be "no" on Harvey, Bundy, Jomar Reyes, Mychal Givens, and likely Chance Sisco. Would D. J. Stewart be enough by himself? Tough call. He looked really bad in the 62 games he played in after he was drafted last year. SSS, I know, but he's looked like one of those players who could flame out pretty easily once he started to see more advanced pitching, so that stretch didn't help much.

My guess is that "nyet" could mean two things...

1.) We don't like Stewart very much, and
2.) The prevailing sentiment with the brass is that a contender will wind up with an injury and overpay later.

If you look at his contract, it really is easily movable for at least another year - especially since we're in a financial position to make it really attractive if it gets us the right prospect/prospects.
 
The Braves probably said no because the O's don't have anything worth trading for, and Nick's contract isn't some budget busting albatross the team needs to unload.
 
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