My preference at the moment is Perez but I am intrigued by Senzel. We need to graduate as much talent in a small amount of time to be a championship team. If I would take him would have a lot to do with how much he would sign for. Being a lower ceiling college guy I could see him taking a below slot deal. Might also consider other lower prospects who might be willing to do the same.
I doubt we go after Perez. With Swanson and Albies in the pipe, SS isn't a need for us. Also, he's a high schooler so we'd have to wait a good bit longer to graduate him. As you said, we need to graduate as much talent as we can in a small amount of time. Coppy seems to agree with that by saying they'd prefer a college position player.
Our need at 3B, the fact he's right handed, and his overall polish does make me think Senzel is a legit possibility at 3. He's ranked all over the board. BA has him second overall, Fangraphs has him 22nd, and MLB.com has him 14th. Here's what Hudson Belinsky said about Senzel in a chat:
"Andy (Georgia): Do you guys run these lists by people employed by pro teams? What was their reaction to Senzel at 2?
Hudson Belinsky: Yes. To give you a better sense of our process… I started by parsing through our previous lists and merging them together. I then added in players who were on the rise and sent out a rough draft of the list to my most trusted sources, the best scouts I know. John Manuel and I spoke with crosscheckers, area scouts, college coaches, and scouting directors about how we had the players lined up, where they were likely to be picked, etc. I thought I would be the high man on Mr. Senzel. He was #2 in our first rough draft. I got great reactions to him being that high on our list. Some said they thought he was the best player in the class. I could see him going #2 to the Reds."
So guys in the business are really high on Senzel. Personally, I have two questions about him.
First, will he stick at third? He's a newcomer to the position and if he has to move to the OF then he loses a lot of his value. Third is a premium position and having a hitter there you can count on does have a lot of value. He has 3 errors at third in 16 games so far so that's not really inspiring. But you never know the circumstances. Maybe a better firstbaseman saves some of those.
Second, will he hit for power? He only hit 4 HRs last year with 12 doubles and 5 triples in 50 games. He followed that by leading the Cape Cod league in XBH (21) including 16 doubles. This year he's continued to be a doubles machine with 8 in his first 16 games. Still only 1 HR so far. So while he's showing more doubles power, he's still struggling to clear the fence. I expect that he probably tops out at 15 HR.
If he sticks at third, is a perennial .300+ hitter, gets on base at around a .375 clip, and hits 15 HRs a year, I'd be really happy with him at 3. However, if he has to move to the outfield or can't ever hit more than 5 or 6 HRs a year, I wont be very thrilled.
