- STARTS TODAY AT 7PM - 2016 June Amateur Draft Discussion
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bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
he won't be there at #3 if he continues at this pace.. He might position himself as a #1.. I know Philly really wants pitching... but..
**edit** oh and I can't see the Braves passing on him at #3 with numbers even close to those.. He fits everything they want.. (college bat/power/OF)
In the unlikely event both Groome and Lewis were available at 3, which would you select?
Conversely, if both were gone, then who?
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
good question.. if both are gone, then probably Ray.. but that is debatable..
if both are there.. I would probably go Groome today. but it would be hard
If Lewis is there, I'm taking Lewis no matter who else is there. If both are gone, I would go Ray as of right now. I'm hoping another college bat emerges. I'd also be ok with Rutherford there.
We'll see. Some still consider him a reach even at 3. It'll be interesting to see where updated mock drafts have him going. The level of competition will hopefully hold him back. I mean, Kris Bryant went #2 with 31 bombs.
If Lewis is gone and we go either pitching or HS hitter at 3, I'd like to take Anfernee Grier from Auburn with one of our later picks, assuming he's still there, and I think he will be. He doesn't have the same power as Lewis or even Ray, but he's improved it a lot this year and has good speed as well. Sort of a poor man's Corey Ray.
Hudson2
Well-known member
If both were gone I'd take Ray, Rutherford would be fine to if he has a big year. Groome or Lewis, that would be pretty close but I'd go Lewis. His power and ability to walk at a good rate would be to hard to pass up. Lewis is the exact player we should be targeting. I wish we would have lost a few more games and had gotten the 2nd pick, bc the Reds can really screw things up.
Totally agree. We even had #1 in our grasp for a little while. I'm hoping that having Winker as their top prospect keeps the Reds away from a corner OF that won't sit in the minors long, and while they have some pitching talent in their system, they're missing a potential young ace to build around.
The thing that excites me most about Lewis is not just that he's torching college baseball, but that his improvement has been unbelievably rapid. He struck out more than twice as often as he walked last year, and this year he's completely reversed that and is walking about twice as often as he's striking out.
There's a chance he's both the best college hitter right now in addition to the one with the most room to continue growing, which is crazy.
Here's some interesting stuff I found from scout.com.
First is a draft profile of Kyle Lewis written last week: http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1655028-2016-mlb-draft-profile-kyle-lewis-of. This is not the most flattering profile, and it highlights why we may not have to worry about Lewis going before 3 and why the Braves could pass on him as well. Personally, I would say his speed, defense, and arm will all be at least average, with clear plus power potential. The question is his hit tool, but I would imagine it has a chance to be above-average. I would take that package all day.
Second is a mock draft that came out today: http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1656002-scout-s-2016-mlb-mock-draft-2-0. The guy who wrote the Lewis profile still has him going 6, and the other guy has him going 4. The interesting thing here is that Ellis doesn't have Groome going until 4, with 3 hitters ahead of him, and that both have Senzel going in the top 2 and both believe he is clearly the top bat in the draft. I just don't get it. He obviously hits well, but there must be some serious scouting work going on here beyond what can be seen in a stat line. He has good plate discipline, but I just don't see the power to take him that high. But it looks like there's a pretty decent chance that Groome and Senzel go 1-2, which would leave us with the Ray/Lewis/Rutherford/Perez group to choose from.
First is a draft profile of Kyle Lewis written last week: http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1655028-2016-mlb-draft-profile-kyle-lewis-of. This is not the most flattering profile, and it highlights why we may not have to worry about Lewis going before 3 and why the Braves could pass on him as well. Personally, I would say his speed, defense, and arm will all be at least average, with clear plus power potential. The question is his hit tool, but I would imagine it has a chance to be above-average. I would take that package all day.
Second is a mock draft that came out today: http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1656002-scout-s-2016-mlb-mock-draft-2-0. The guy who wrote the Lewis profile still has him going 6, and the other guy has him going 4. The interesting thing here is that Ellis doesn't have Groome going until 4, with 3 hitters ahead of him, and that both have Senzel going in the top 2 and both believe he is clearly the top bat in the draft. I just don't get it. He obviously hits well, but there must be some serious scouting work going on here beyond what can be seen in a stat line. He has good plate discipline, but I just don't see the power to take him that high. But it looks like there's a pretty decent chance that Groome and Senzel go 1-2, which would leave us with the Ray/Lewis/Rutherford/Perez group to choose from.
Hudson2
Well-known member
I agree smoot. His work ethic is definitely showing this year. I was worried about the competition level at first but it doesn't bother me anymore. But hopefully it does the Reds and Phillies and he's there at 3. Scout just released their mock draft. Why is everybody so high on Senzel? And they have us passing on Groome and Lewis at 3 lol.
http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1656002-scout-s-2016-mlb-mock-draft-2-0
http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1656002-scout-s-2016-mlb-mock-draft-2-0
I see that Senzel did hit .364 in the Cape last year, which is really impressive. He's obviously more of a high-floor, very low risk guy...sort of a Dansby Swanson without quite the defense, and he may not even have as much power as Swanson, but maybe an even better hit tool. That obviously appeals to GMs who want to make sure they get something of worth at the top of the draft, so I guess I get that.
But it all still comes back to Lewis for me. Ray has great speed and pretty good power, but there are questions about his defense in CF, and there are real questions about his hit tool, so I'd rather go elsewhere. Lewis has taken himself from a guy who hit 4 HR as a senior in high school and who barely played as a freshman at Mercer to arguably the best college player in the nation. That is unbelievable and makes me think the sky truly is the limit for him. He's a mix of a guy who has proven himself at the Division 1 level, so less risk than a HS player, with all the upside still there.
I would say that for me, right now it's 1. Lewis, 2. Rutherford, 3. Ray, 4. Senzel, 5. Perez, assuming Groome is gone.
But it all still comes back to Lewis for me. Ray has great speed and pretty good power, but there are questions about his defense in CF, and there are real questions about his hit tool, so I'd rather go elsewhere. Lewis has taken himself from a guy who hit 4 HR as a senior in high school and who barely played as a freshman at Mercer to arguably the best college player in the nation. That is unbelievable and makes me think the sky truly is the limit for him. He's a mix of a guy who has proven himself at the Division 1 level, so less risk than a HS player, with all the upside still there.
I would say that for me, right now it's 1. Lewis, 2. Rutherford, 3. Ray, 4. Senzel, 5. Perez, assuming Groome is gone.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Jeff Ellis missed the player comparison I've been thinking of--and fear the most--with Lewis and that is Mike Kelly, who the Braves drafted #2 overall in 1991. I worry less about the competition level than what the scouts may see, or not see, with Lewis. If he's truly a corner OF who can launch 30+ bombs at the big league level, where do I sign?
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Same comp with Jeff Ellis' at Scout. I'd be fine with a Dye clone and it's important to remember that it took awhile for Dye to reach his potential.
There's always a chance a guy doesn't fully develop. But Kelly actually regressed statistically as a college junior, indicating that perhaps he didn't have much room to grow. That's not the case with Lewis.
striker42
Well-known member
I didn't read the scout synopsis. It's a fairly good comparison as far as tools, build, potential, etc. I don't think they'll have the same career path. All reports are Lewis is very hard working and very smart.
And Mike Kelly wasn't?
Not trying to be difficult, but we're basing these discussions on what guys that "work" for scout.com say or surmise from scouting reports they read. I don't recall many reports about Kelly since it was so long ago, so I'm not trying to say he was. Just pointing out that these reports may be completely different than what the Braves' scouts think - and scout.com/Law/BA/whomever doesn't have access to those opinions and reports. I don't even think the concern some of us voice about the level of competition is going to be an issue - the Braves have never been overwhelmed with the idea that potential draftees come from powerhouse conferences or high school programs. Those are things that pop into our minds that seem to be legitimate questions and they may very well be - but our scouts have a much better understanding of what the organization is looking for than anyone else.
The main point is that it's not even April yet - settling on a player you're going to take at #3 overall this early is a rather bad idea IMO.
striker42
Well-known member
I have no opinion on the Mike Kelly comp as I honestly don't know enough about him to make that call. All I was trying to say is that I think Lewis has similar skills, build, and potential as Dye. While Dye's career was marked with struggles to reach that potential, I think that assuming things go well, Lewis has the work ethic and intelligence to reach his potential earlier and stay there. Just saying I don't expect Lewis to follow Dye's frustrating career trajectory.
And I'm just asking - why? How often have you seen him play? Based on what reports or information?
The question isn't meant to be a shot at you or anyone else in any way. I'm just asking if that's just a feeling from the reports you've read. There's nothing wrong with that if that's the case - we're all fans and everybody has their favorite players/prospects/etc..
Lewis is hot right now. He's a local kid. There are plenty of reasons to like him and want the Braves to draft him. I personally prefer to wait until the Braves' scouts have had time to see plenty of all the kids the team might be targeting and will be convinced that their reasoning for deciding on whomever they pick in June will be made for the right reasons and not influenced by a hot streak in March (although that will certainly influence the decision as well).
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